The rise of India and implications for Pakistan
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India continues to climb the economic ladder and was recently declared the fifth largest economy of the world after overtaking the United Kingdom. It is expected that it will be the third largest after the US and China by 2030.
Manufacturing and services are the key sectors of growth. A large country with a significant population, which is demographically young, skilled and english speaking, India is well poised to attain its distinguished position as a major pole in the world economy.
This will have profound consequences for South Asia and in particular for Pakistan. As a major producer of goods and services, India will require huge amounts of energy, which it will get from the Middle East. Its orientation will also shift towards greater emphasis on ensuring continued supplies of essential raw materials.
Competition with China will become more intense. Both are energy deficient and will require assured supplies. The locus of competition will be adjacent regions. The US and India will likely cooperate more closely against China. The Indian emphasis on building a blue water navy will become more urgent.
For South Asia, the situation will become more murky. India and China will continue to out-bid each other. Smaller countries such as Bhutan and Nepal will be more receptive to India. Bangladesh and Sri Lanka will look after their interests and maintain equally good relations with India and China.
India is not going to allow Pakistan to continue to be an obstacle to its economic dominance. It is in Pakistan’s interest to wake up to the changing regional realities and demand its place in the system.
Salman Bashir
For Pakistan, the options will be limited. The Pakistan-China relationship is strong and unless India gives up on its hostility towards Pakistan, which is unlikely, Pakistan will become more dependent on China.
It is evident that Pakistan has very little options. Efforts to improve relations with India especially by starting to trade have not succeeded so far. Even if trade becomes possible, the full dynamics of trade relations will not be possible, given Pakistan’s limited export potential.
The prospects of improving relations with India are in Pakistan’s interests. But the possibility of achieving substantial improvement is not visible at this point. India is not likely to admit its mistakes in unleashing a hostile takeover, which is politically motivated and has nothing to do with economics.
The US factor may become less of an issue. The Pakistani diaspora in the US carries significant weight and the country depends on foreign remittances to a large extent. But it is not sufficient to out do the adverse Indian factor. Pakistan may have to choose between the US and China or continue down its path of having good relations with both.
Pakistan’s degree of resolve to work out the adverse Indian factor and resist being lynched by the Indian avalanche depends on internal stability. It appears that for now, being indebted highly and unable to do without the external dependency, is something that will militate for a secondary role in the region.
It is not possible to imagine Pakistan conceding itself to a situation of secondary importance in the region. China-India relationship is going to be critical in this regard. If India and China were to manage their differences amicably, India will have to re-gear its priorities. This may not happen. India is likely to choose the US as its primary ally.
Pakistan has to either accept Indian hegemony or to bring about the necessary changes to take on the role of a peer. It seems that for now the tendency is to buy time and let the situation persist. But this cannot be for long. India is not going to allow Pakistan to continue to be an obstacle to its economic dominance. It is in Pakistan’s interest to wake up to the changing regional realities and demand its place in the system.
- Salman Bashir is a Pakistani diplomat who served as Foreign Secretary of Pakistan and as High Commissioner of Pakistan to India.
Twitter: @Salman_B_PK
