Threat perceptions in Pakistan’s neighborhood are changing
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Threat perceptions in the Gulf and surrounding region are fast changing and it is more necessary than ever for Pakistan and its friends to remain cognizant of evolving realities. The Horn of Africa, not far from the Arabian Peninsula, has assumed crucial geographic importance in international navigation. Iran is witnessing yet another wave of internal unrest closely related to financial hardships faced by its masses, but fast assuming political overtones. The internationally recognized political unity of Yemen has been under threat and was preserved in part by the timely action of Saudi Arabia.
The Gulf of Aden has paramount importance for international trade. It connects the Indian Ocean with the Red Sea, providing shorter access to Europe and North Africa through the Suez Canal. Its negative importance emanates from the possibility of becoming a choke point during international hostilities. So the Gulf of Aden assumes vital importance as a crucial energy route. That explains the military presence of seven nations in tiny Djibouti. Aden (Yemen) and Barbra (Somaliland) are other ports in this narrow waterway. Israel’s recent announcement about recognizing Somaliland as a state has caused concerns globally and Pakistan has condemned it as an “act of political aggression.” In a recent Organization of Islamic Co-operation (OIC) meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia reaffirmed its firm rejection of any actions undermining Somalia’s unity.
All nations in Iran’s vicinity are closely watching the situation evolving there as well. Iran’s detractors think that an opportune moment for regime change may have arrived. Perhaps Pakistan and the GCC countries know that a regime change in Iran could create more problems than it could solve.
Afghanistan has unfortunately emerged as a hub of militancy for Pakistan in recent years, with Islamabad exploring various channels and forums to convince authorities in Kabul that peaceful coexistence would be mutually beneficial. Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) Al-Qaeda and Daesh are all present in Afghanistan and TTP has made forays into the border districts. Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkiye have tried to mediate for peace and the UN Secretary General has urged the Afghan government to stop militant activity on its soil. All these efforts have so far been in vain.
Growing regional threats to peace and security demand constant vigilance.
Javed Hafeez
It is good for the region that Iran and the US have kept diplomatic channels open, despite the sharp rhetoric exchanged regularly. Any hint of an attack on Iran would send shockwaves to international energy markets and Pakistan, with its long and porous border, would be worst affected. Evolution, with the consent of the people, is better than the upheavals of revolutions.
Whether its Somalia, Iran or Afghanistan, threats to regional peace and security seem to be lurking everywhere. The Trump Peace Plan for Gaza faces a stalemate-like situation as various Muslim countries have shown reservations about contributing troops to the International Stabilization Force (ISF).
Growing regional threats to peace and security demand constant vigilance. It is heartening that Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are on one page regarding the issues discussed here. The Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement (SMDA) between the two countries provides a great framework for regular consultations to assess and review various threats perceived in order to combat those effectively. Intelligence sharing, joint seminars, training and military exercises are some other ways of military cooperation to ward off present threats and possibly future ones- in an ever changing world.
- Javed Hafeez is a former Pakistani diplomat with much experience of the Middle East. He writes weekly columns in Pakistani and Gulf newspapers and appears regularly on satellite TV channels as a defense and political analyst. X: @JavedHafiz8
