Rohingya education the next regional security crisis

Nearly a decade after more than 700,000 Rohingya fled Myanmar’s military violence in 2017, the humanitarian crisis in Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar camps is often described in terms of food rations, shelter or security. Yet one of the most consequential dimensions of the crisis remains largely overlooked: education.

More than half a million Rohingya children of school age are currently living in the camps in Bangladesh. Most of them still lack access to formal, accredited education. For many, schooling is limited to basic learning centers that provide only rudimentary instruction without recognized certification or clear pathways to secondary education. The result is that an entire generation is growing up without the skills, qualifications or opportunities necessary to rebuild their lives.

This is rapidly becoming a structural regional problem.

The Rohingya crisis is already one of the largest protracted refugee situations in the world. Without meaningful access to education, it risks something worse: the creation of a permanent lost generation.

An entire generation is growing up without the skills, qualifications or opportunities necessary to rebuild their lives

Dr. Azeem Ibrahim

Children who spend their formative years without schooling face profound long-term consequences. Educational deprivation increases vulnerability to trafficking, criminal networks and exploitation. It also undermines social stability inside refugee camps and erodes prospects for future economic self-reliance. In fragile environments where frustration and hopelessness already run high, the absence of opportunity can easily translate into insecurity.

Bangladesh has carried an enormous burden in hosting the Rohingya population, now numbering more than 1 million. Dhaka has consistently made clear that the refugee presence must remain temporary and that repatriation to Myanmar is the only acceptable long-term solution. But repatriation itself becomes far less viable when an entire generation grows up without education or employable skills.

The reality is simple. If Rohingya children cannot study today, they cannot rebuild Myanmar tomorrow.

Education is therefore not a peripheral issue in the Rohingya crisis. It sits at the center of any realistic long-term solution.

Yet the current model of education provision in Cox’s Bazar is failing. Funding shortages have repeatedly forced humanitarian agencies to scale back programs. Many learning centers operate with minimal resources and limited curricula. Even where education is available, it often stops at the primary level and does not lead to recognized qualifications.

Traditional classroom-based systems alone cannot meet the scale of the challenge. With more than 500,000 children requiring schooling, building and staffing enough conventional schools under existing legal and political constraints is extraordinarily difficult. Bangladesh has legitimate concerns about infrastructure expansion that could suggest permanent settlement. Donor funding cycles are unpredictable. And humanitarian delivery models were never designed to educate entire populations over decades.

The result is a fragmented system that cannot be scaled. This is why a new approach is urgently required.

At the New Lines Institute, we are launching a major research initiative to design a scalable education framework for Rohingya children that can operate within Bangladesh’s political constraints, while reaching large numbers of students sustainably. The goal is not simply to expand existing learning centers but to develop an education architecture capable of serving an entire population over time.

Technology will have to play a central role in this solution. Digital learning platforms, blended education models and offline-first technologies can dramatically expand reach while reducing costs. Community-based facilitators can support instruction while trained teachers deliver standardized curricula through digital platforms. Remote teacher training and digital assessment tools can ensure quality and consistency across thousands of learners.

Such approaches are already being used successfully in other large-scale displacement contexts. When combined with internationally recognized accreditation pathways, they can ensure that Rohingya students receive qualifications that remain useful whether they return to Myanmar, resettle elsewhere or pursue further education.

Equally important is the need for predictable and sustainable financing. Education programs in Cox’s Bazar have too often been subject to annual funding crises, leaving students and teachers in a constant state of uncertainty. A long-term financing architecture involving bilateral donors, multilateral institutions, philanthropic organizations and Muslim-majority countries could provide the stability required for large-scale education systems.

Bangladesh’s interests are central to this effort. A scalable education framework would reduce long-term aid dependency, improve camp stability and lower security risks. Crucially, it would also align with Dhaka’s policy position that Rohingya refugees will ultimately return to Myanmar. By prioritizing internationally transferable curricula rather than national integration, education programs can prepare students for repatriation rather than permanent settlement.

For Myanmar itself, education will be indispensable to reconstruction. The country’s long-term stability will depend heavily on whether returning Rohingya populations possess the skills necessary to participate in economic recovery and community rebuilding. A generation denied education would make that process immeasurably harder.

For the international community, the logic is equally compelling. Investing in education today is far less costly than managing the consequences of neglect tomorrow. Refugee crises that produce generations without schooling inevitably create long-term economic, migration and security pressures far beyond the borders of the original conflict.

Investing in education today is far less costly than managing the consequences of neglect tomorrow

Dr. Azeem Ibrahim

Education is therefore one of the most strategic investments that governments and donors can make.

But time is not on our side. The longer the education gap persists, the more difficult it becomes to close. Children who miss years of schooling rarely reenter formal education later. Adolescents who never reach secondary school often never return to learning at all.

In Cox’s Bazar today, hundreds of thousands of Rohingya children are waiting. They are waiting for classrooms that do not yet exist. For teachers who have not yet been trained. For qualifications that remain out of reach.

Most of all, they are waiting for the world to recognize that their education is not a marginal issue in the Rohingya crisis. It is the defining issue.

The choice facing policymakers is stark. Either invest now in an education system capable of reaching this generation at scale or face the far greater consequences of a generation left behind.

History has shown many times that refugee crises do not disappear simply because the world loses interest. They evolve, deepen and shape the future of entire regions.

The Rohingya crisis is entering that phase. What happens to Rohingya children today will determine whether the next decade brings recovery or instability.

Education will decide which path the region takes.

• Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is the director of special initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington. X: @AzeemIbrahim