Today’s Pakistan-India moment: What are the limits to escalation in a nuclearized region?

In the earliest hours of the morning on Wednesday, India launched missile attacks against nine sites in Pakistan and Pakistani-administered Kashmir, escalating the longstanding tensions between India and Pakistan into a significant conflict.

Ostensibly, this was in response to the terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, on April 22, 2025, which claimed 26 lives, and which India blamed on Pakistan.

India’s response was swift. It expelled Pakistani diplomats, suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, closed borders and revoked visas for Pakistani nationals. Pakistan retaliated by suspending the Simla Agreement, closing its airspace and imposing trade restrictions. These tit-for-tat measures dismantled decades-old frameworks for cooperation, pushing bilateral relations to a historic low.

Pakistan had said that India must give evidence of Pakistan’s involvement and that Pakistan was ready for a neutral and credible international investigation.

Nuclear deterrence, which prevented all-out war in past crises like Kargil in 1999, remains a restraining factor, but the threshold for limited strikes has lowered since 2019.

Salman Bashir

 The conflict, while not erupting into full-scale war, highlighted the persistent challenges of the India-Pakistan rivalry, driven by historical disputes, regional geopolitics, and domestic pressures.

By May 7, the situation had escalated militarily. India conducted civil defense drills across seven states, a measure not seen since 1971, signaling preparation for potential hostilities. Skirmishes along the Line of Control (LoC) intensified, with reports of gunfire exchanges and casualties on both sides. After the Indian missile attacks, Pakistan’s military claims it has downed five Indian jets in retaliation.

The roots of this conflict lie in the unresolved Kashmir dispute, a flashpoint since the 1947 partition. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, under domestic pressure from Hindu nationalist groups, adopted a hard-line stance, promising to “punish the backers” of the attack. Pakistan, grappling with economic fragility and political instability, responded defensively, with its leaders framing India’s actions as aggression.

Global responses are mixed but urgent. The United States, through Secretary of State Marco Rubio, has urged restraint and cooperation in investigating the attack, while China, a close Pakistani ally, called for dialogue. However, India’s strategic outreach appeared focused on justifying potential military action rather than seeking de-escalation. The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, labeled an ‘act of war’ by Pakistan, further complicated matters, with reports of flooding and water shortages in Pakistan fueling humanitarian concerns.

Analysts noted that nuclear deterrence, which prevented all-out war in past crises like Kargil in 1999, remained a restraining factor, but the threshold for limited strikes had lowered since 2019. The crisis also disrupted regional stability, impacting trade, tech investments, and global markets, with investors hedging against volatility in the Indian and Pakistani rupees.

The India-Pakistan conflict of today is a stark reminder of the enduring dispute’s volatility. While nuclear deterrence and international pressure may avert a broader war, the cycle of retaliation and mistrust persists. Sustainable peace requires dialogue, confidence-building measures, and addressing the root causes of militancy, lest the region remain a global flashpoint.

The Bharatya Janata Party (BJP) government owes its domestic support to its right-wing Hindu nationalist ‘Hindutva’ agenda. It has carried out policies inimical to the minorities especially the Muslims in India. It believes in accomplishing the ‘Akhand Bharat’ — to encompass vast regions from Afghanistan to Bangladesh.

India sees opportunities in the current uncertain global environment, where laws and rules are being neglected by the strong to arrive at outcomes that are not based on legality and morality. In this sense, it seems to be imitating global powers.

But there are limits to escalation in a nuclearized region. Pakistan has opted to respond to these attacks ‘at a time and place of its own choosing.’ One can expect retaliatory missile strikes by Pakistan against India and one can only hope these won’t lead to further escalatory actions.

– Salman Bashir is a Pakistani diplomat who served as Foreign Secretary of Pakistan and as High Commissioner of Pakistan to India. X: @Salman_B_PK