After Afghan clerics’ decree, Pakistan should rethink its ‘do more’ stance

The announcement of a nationwide decree last week by the Afghan ulema mandating that Afghan soil not be used for attacks on other countries could ease tensions between Kabul and Islamabad, but it will not end them. In a separate ulema gathering last week, Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi pledged to punish any group or entity that violates the commandment.

In a complex socio-political landscape, it is not uncommon for ministers to make announcements outside their portfolios, but Amir Muttaqi’s statement banning the use of Afghan soil for militant attacks on other countries is notable. Given Sirajuddin Haqqani’s role as interior minister and his presence on the US terrorism list, it is likely the Taliban chose not to antagonize the United States.

The Taliban’s unwavering fighting spirit does not translate easily into governance, especially when confronted with severe internal economic hardships and external pressure to combat militancy. It is slowly dawning on the ruling group that the view from the top is different from the view in the trenches.

Islamabad has cautiously welcomed the announcement but has stressed that optimism must be tempered with realism. Even as a matter of diplomatic decorum, Islamabad’s priority remains ensuring security and preventing militant attacks, while the Taliban seek to maintain relations with Pakistan and other countries, partly to ease economic hardships and pursue international recognition.

The ruling Taliban do not exercise full control over militant groups such as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Daesh Khorasan or other splinter factions. At a minimum, these groups could become more aggressive, interpreting the ban as a sign of betrayal or weakness, potentially leading to increased attacks and provocations.

By issuing the decree last week, the Taliban have effectively entered a period of uncertainty, as this ban would risk triggering internal divisions and power struggles, as some of the Afghan Taliban factions may view it as capitulation to Pakistani pressure. This could also compel the Taliban to confront foreign fighters operating in Afghanistan who may refuse to comply with the decree.

The Taliban’s unwavering fighting spirit does not translate easily into governance, especially when confronted with severe internal economic hardships and external pressure to combat militancy. 

Naila Mahsud

Following the decree, the Taliban leadership in Kabul will be required to manage relations with the TTP, seek assurances from its leadership to adhere to the directive and potentially confront Daesh Khorasan and other splinter groups affiliated with or operating alongside TTP and Daesh.

Kabul has largely avoided direct confrontation with foreign militant groups based on its soil, choosing instead to focus on internal challenges, as such conflicts would be costly and could divert attention from governance priorities. At the same time, the Taliban have sought to avoid being perceived by Islamabad as a proxy or subordinate actor. As Pakistan has sought greater influence in Afghanistan, the Taliban have considered it necessary to assert their authority and autonomy within the country.

Over the past two months, Islamabad has adopted a more escalatory posture toward Kabul across military, economic and political fronts. This has included border closures, airstrikes inside Afghan territory, the expulsion of Afghan refugees from Pakistan and the use of sharper diplomatic language to describe the Taliban government. 

In May this year, Pakistan upgraded its diplomatic relations with Afghanistan to the ambassadorial level, shortly after Islamabad’s military confrontation with India. In recent weeks however, Islamabad has made a U-turn, shifting from referring to the Afghan government to using the term Taliban regime.

Many observers have questioned Islamabad’s hardened stance, noting that the TTP has existed for more than two decades and that Pakistan itself has struggled to fully dismantle or eliminate the group. Pakistan’s approach has pushed Kabul to explore alternative regional partnerships, including with India, Pakistan’s long-standing rival, while also adopting a more rigid tone toward Islamabad.

Regional stakeholders will need to navigate the situation carefully, balancing their strategic interests against the risk that militant factions could undermine the ban. This will require steps to prevent a derailment of the process and greater engagement with the ruling authorities in Kabul.

More broadly, with Pakistan’s stance of “do more,” regional states and the international community will need to adopt a more pragmatic approach toward Afghanistan’s current rulers. Continued reliance on pressure, sanctions and the refusal to acknowledge the realities on the ground risks hardening positions, exacerbating the suffering of the Afghan people and deepening security challenges for neighboring and regional countries.

– Naila Mahsud is a Pakistani political and International relations researcher, with a focus on regional politics and security issues. X: @MahsudNaila