Pakistan’s regional connectivity dreams have got a geopolitical reality check

Pakistan’s strategic culture is riddled with debates echoing the country’s unique geographical positioning at the crossroads of South, Central and West Asia. Pakistan’s maritime environment connects it with the Gulf Arab States of the Arabian Peninsula and also with the countries of East Africa. Still the complexities of regional geopolitics and in particular the fraught nature of bilateral relationships with both eastern and western neighbors have curtailed Pakistan’s potential of becoming an important node in trans-regional connectivity endeavors and trade corridors. The recent escalation of border hostilities with Afghanistan has again laid bare this strategic conundrum.

Upon independence, Pakistan’s neighborhood and the picture of global politics was readily different from what it is today. As the cold war was just starting, both the United States and the Soviet Union were actively vying to expand their respect zones of influence across different continents and to recruit allies for their respective political blocks. In that context, Pakistan’s location indeed presented it with significant opportunities. Even after the dismemberment of the country, Pakistan still retained its significance as a critical player in the geopolitics of both South Asia and the Middle East. 

Events in 1979 including the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the revolution in Iran and Israel-Egypt normalization turned the regional geopolitical chessboard upside down. All of these developments catapulted Pakistan into an extremely important regional player in particular thanks to its geography. Ensuing events saw the country becoming a frontline state in the Afghan Jihad and the broader effort to contain the Soviet Union. Pakistan’s decision makers of the time deftly played their cards and extracted both political and economic rents of their geography.

The geo-economics project for all practical purposes is over and Pakistani decision makers are again facing a glaring geopolitical reality.

Umer Karim

The end of the cold war also ended all geopolitical opportunity structures which had become central for Pakistani statecraft. Unfortunately, Pakistan’s ruling cadres neither accepted this changed reality nor took any relevant steps to adapt to a rapidly changing world and their own region. Instead, themes like strategic depth continued to shape Pakistan’s geopolitical outlook. The demise of the Soviet Union and the independence of Central Asian States was supposed to open up new horizons for Pakistan’s connectivity with Central Asia. However, as Pakistan and Central Asian stakeholders backed different groups in the Afghan Civil War, the political opportunity never matured. 

In the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks and the American invasion of Afghanistan, Pakistan emerged again as a frontline state in the war on terror. This change of guard in Kabul unfortunately also resulted in the empowerment of some anti-Pakistan elements which had been resentful regarding Pakistan’s support for the Taliban regime. Although Pakistan did take some soft power initiatives to build bridges with different ethnicities and communities within Afghanistan, its broader policy was still shaped through a security lens.

 The initiation of infrastructure projects under the auspices of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and in particular the development of the Gwadar port was based on the premise that it would facilitate trans-regional trade with the Central Asian States. Yet, instability within Afghanistan and Pakistan’s tense relationship with Kabul remained a hindrance toward that actualization. 

Under the government of Imran Khan, a discourse of geo-economics was propagated without the government ever taking any practical steps to resolve the key political issues hindering the realization of this geo-economic statecraft. The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in 2021 was again expected to create an environment which would further the idea of regional connectivity. Initially, both sides were positive and started work to formalize key regional connectivity projects such as the Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (UAP) Railway project and the Central Asia-South Asia Power Project known as CASA-1000. However, this regional connectivity regime has dropped dead in its tracks with the escalation of bilateral tensions owing to an increase in Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) cross-border attacks into Pakistan and the refusal of the Taliban to take action against them. 

After intense border clashes with Taliban troops in October, Pakistan has effectively sealed its border with Afghanistan. 

Pakistan’s security statecraft is thereby again linked with its regional connectivity dreams. The geo-economics project for all practical purposes is over and Pakistani decision makers are again facing a glaring geopolitical reality.

This must compel Pakistan’s power corridors to develop new and more realistic alternatives in order to connect the country with Central Asia. Furthermore, Pakistan should attempt to build stronger ties with stakeholders in its broader maritime neighborhood and also to allocate resources to the development of its maritime infrastructure. 

Only through diversifying away from this land centric connectivity and trade regime can Pakistan hope to mitigate the economic effects of these endemic tensions with its eastern and western neighbors.

– Umar Karim is a doctoral researcher at the University of Birmingham. His research focuses on the evolution of Saudi Arabia’s strategic outlook, the Saudi-Iran tussle, conflict in Syria, and the geopolitics of Turkey, Iran and Pakistan. X: @UmarKarim89