PM Khan’s Tajikistan Voyage
https://arab.news/yczfc
At the occasion of the 20th Shanghai Cooperation Organization Council of Heads of State meeting, Prime Minister Imran Khan traveled to Tajikistan. Of greater relevance were the sideline meetings particularly in the backdrop of the evolving situation in Kabul.
His address at the joint Pakistan Tajikistan Business Forum in Dushanbe received attention where he noted that greater trade integration will benefit both countries and the region as a whole. Tajik investors have been invited to study the potential of a large consumer demand in Pakistan – a message reiterated during the PM’s sideline meetings with the Presidents of Belarus and Kazakhistan. A strong Pakistani delegation comprising representatives of 67 private enterprises accompanied the Prime Minister.
The potential of transboundary energy cooperation also came to light and the PM informed how Central Asia-South Asia power project (CASA 1000) could be expedited so that the region benefits from Central Asia’s energy supplies.
Likewise, the potential of cross border transport and its dividends for businesses and people were discussed. Trans-Afghan railway project connecting Termez, Mazar-i-Sharif, Kabul, Jalalabad and Peshawar could provide economic stability in Afghanistan and also connecting the country with its neighbors in a more reliable and efficient way.
While the strategic importance of this high-level visit cannot be denied, it is important to give ourselves a deeper understanding of the situation on the ground and how soon the above mentioned ambitions may be realized.
Regional energy projects including CASA-1000 — expected to export the surplus hydroelectricity from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to Afghanistan and Pakistan by 2024 and Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan and India (TAPI) gas pipeline continue to face an uncertain future due to the fragility in Afghanistan and India’s lack of imagination to integrate with its western neighborhood.
Time is now ripe to go beyond trade-related discourse and actively pursue investment cooperation arrangements.
Dr. Vaqar Ahmed
On the transport front, Uzbekistan will only benefit from the trans-Afghan railways and access of Pakistani ports if the risks of a civil war in Afghanistan are effectively mitigated. However, the alternatives available for Tashkent are even more uncertain. For example, India’s ambition to support International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and Chabahar Port in Iran have been met by delays forcing Tashkent to focus on accessing Pakistani ports for future economic needs. China seems to be backing the spirit of the trans-Afghan railway as it could strengthen the dividends from China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Islamabad and Tashkent signed transit trade agreement as part of the ‘Silk Route Reconnect Policy’ in July this year. Tajikistan also wants a revised Afghanistan-Pakistan transit trade agreement whereby a trilateral arrangement could help Dushanbe in accessing Gwadar port for securing it’s food supplies.
On the trade front, Pakistan’s trade with Central Asian countries is less than a billion dollars. Pakistan’s exports to Tajikistan, for example, comprise of basic consumer items such as pharmaceuticals, processed food and some textile products. Due to challenges in accessing Central Asian countries via land routes, the business community in Pakistan has been looking into possibilities of foreign direct investment in Tajikistan and its neighbors. This is particularly true for the pharmaceutical and dairy sectors. Time is now ripe to go beyond trade-related discourse and actively pursue investment cooperation arrangements.
There is also a need for greater imagination to deepen existing trade ties. Currently, Central Asian countries have exhibited a low appetite for regional or free trade agreements (FTAs), but increased business-to-business engagement and business expos under the auspices of the Trade Development Authority of Pakistan in various Central Asian economies could boost demand for Pakistani goods and shape political will in favor of FTAs. An additional benefit of this could be increased interest in favor of higher trade-in-services and digital trade integration.
Pakistan’s internal security dimensions will also be important. Gwadar port’s potential to provide certain and higher levels of transit trade for Central Asia countries can be harnessed if peace in Balochistan prevails and plans under the second phase of CPEC are expedited. The ML-1 railway line under CPEC could be a major factor in bringing down transportation and logistics costs in the region.
Finally, apart from the security dimension in the region, another missing link has been the capability of governments in the region to package innovative business partnerships – an area where investment and trade promotions agencies in Pakistan, Tajikistan and beyond require attention. Even within Pakistan, the trade and investment promotion regime remains fragmented across federal, provincial, and regulatory bodies.
- Dr. Vaqar Ahmed is joint executive director at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI). He has served as an adviser to the UN Development Programme (UNDP) and has undertaken assignments with the Asian Development Bank, the World Bank, and the Finance, Planning, and Commerce Ministries in Pakistan.
Twitter: @vaqarahmed
