Trump-Kim Summit offers lesson for South Asia’s nuclear rivals
The Trump-Kim Summit has kindled a hope to restart the suspended composite dialogue process between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan.
It is a rational but optimistic aspiration that requires strategy and patience in the negotiation process.
Are both sides prepared to follow the example of US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and restart a sustained dialogue process to ease tensions between them?
In the absence of a dialogue process, South Asia remains vulnerable to nuclear catastrophe.
On June 12, Trump and Kim had a historic summit in Singapore to pull back the Korean peninsula from the brink of a nuclear war. Critics have been alarmed that Kim will not compromise on its nuclear deterrent. Nevertheless, the summit has swapped war threats with pleasantries.
Subsequently, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) president Shahbaz Sharif tweeted: “Singapore Summit between the US and North Korea should set a good precedent for Pakistan and India to follow. Ever since the start of Korean War, the two nations have been at odds with one another — both threatening to use military force with their nuclear arsenals facing each other.”
He added: “After returning to power the PML-N will play its role for peace in the region, especially Afghanistan.”
It is an optimistic commitment to mitigate tensions between India and Pakistan.
As his party’s prime ministerial candidate for the 2018 general election, Sharif is expressing passion for peace with India. His critics are censuring that he is setting unrealistically high expectations from Indians. They agree that a replica of the Trump-Kim Summit is possible but they are uncertain about the constructive outcome of such a summit.
If President Trump can sit down with a repressive and despotic Chairman Kim, why can’t Pakistan’s leaders plan to negotiate a peace deal with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi?
In Pakistan, an overwhelming majority seems in favour of peace with India, but they are skeptical about the sincerity of the Indian leadership.
The Americans and North Koreans have moved back from the edge of a nuclear threshold. In the same way, India and Pakistan can follow in their footsteps, at least in preventing the frequent killing of soldiers at the line of control (LOC).
Undoubtedly, Trump and Kim are not dealing with an interstate conflict like Kashmir. But there is still an urgent need for the Indian and Pakistani ruling elite to restart a dialogue process.
As a Chinese proverb puts it, “The journey of a thousand miles begins with the first step.”
The road from where we are now to the resolution of the chronic Kashmir dispute stretches beyond a thousand miles. As such, expecting a resolution sooner would be an imprudent conclusion.
If President Trump can sit down with a repressive and despotic Chairman Kim, why can’t Pakistan’s leaders plan to negotiate a peace deal with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi?
Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal
On the other hand, if we start today by sincerely trying to quash the probability of nuclear war between the belligerent neighbors, we have to take the first step in the right direction, such as a judicious settlement of the Kashmir dispute.
Neither India nor Pakistan has a military capability to overcome the other. However, both are capable of destroying each other with their nuclear-tipped cruise and ballistic missiles. Hence, any escalation of low-intensity conflicts or border clashes will be catastrophic. Prudence demands that the leadership on both sides act rationally to prevent the region from a devastating all-out war.
Restarting a composite dialogue process will be a big step towards the path of diplomacy, and in moving away from frequent skirmishes and killing of soldiers at the LOC.
Otherwise, Islamabad and New Delhi will continue developing and adding new weapons to their arsenals that serve only to supplement their current preemptive and retaliatory nuclear strikes capabilities and exacerbate instability in the region.
Unfortunately, despite overt nuclearization for two decades and three bilateral nuclear confidence-building agreements, the Indian ruling elite is still not prepared to accept Pakistan’s nuclear restraint proposal.
The nuclear restraint proposal not only saves both states from the dilemma of “worst case strategic planning,” but also enhances their significance in the global nuclear landscape.
Indeed, a dialogue process is imperative for reducing the nuclear threat and the risk of inadvertent war between India and Pakistan. As Winston Churchill reminded us, “jaw-jaw is better than war-war.”
Everyone, including China, has been recommending both states to improve their bilateral ties.
Admittedly, critical analysis of the dialogue processes with India reveals a pessimistic outcome that creates skepticism about the restarting of a dialogue process, but we should never allow our distrust to suffocate the possibility of peace in the region.
Thus, diplomacy with India on settling the disputes is preferable to crises and escalation.
• Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal is an Islamabad-based analyst and professor at the School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-i-Azam University. E-mail:[email protected]
