A wounded past and murky future

The history of Pakistan and India has been stitched with pain and bloodshed since their Independence. On the night between the 14th and 15th of August 1947, two years after World War II, the British Raj ended and two nations were carved from the subcontinent, referred to as “Freedom at Midnight.”

Millions were displaced and thousands killed in one of history’s most tragic episodes. They have since fought wars and waged battles, mainly over the disputed territory of Kashmir which is divided by the highly militarised 740 km Line of Control (LoC).

On the 6th and 7th of May this year, their bloody history resurfaced following a terror attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, with India firing missiles into cities in Pakistan, killing civilians. 

It became a 100-hour night, raining missiles and drones, Indian media’s war hysteria and newsroom theatrics, and false claims of destroying Pakistan’s main cities. 

As the saying goes, ceasefire along the LoC remains durable only until the next provocation. 

Owais Tohid 

India struck civilian areas which it claimed were housing militant networks and showed photos. Pakistan claimed to have shot down six Indian aircraft including three expensive French-made Rafale jets, and shared evidence. The claim is substantiated by many independent accounts. The 100-hour night echoed with claims and counterclaims of victory, till a ceasefire brokered by the US. 

But the cessation of war does not mean peace. India has unilaterally suspended the water-sharing treaty, a lifeline for Pakistan which it considers an ‘act of war.’

The Indus Water Treaty has survived wars and conflicts in the past. Both countries have now suspended trade and visas, blocked airspace, downgraded diplomatic staff, and closed down the Wagah Border which allows entry to citizens of both countries. 

For now, the military escalation has halted. President Trump announced the ceasefire, stating the US had “averted a nuclear war.” 

“This crisis crossed several new thresholds in terms of limited conflict under the nuclear threshold,” said Elizabeth Threlkeld, director of the South Asia program at the Washington-based Stimson Center, echoing the fears of regional and Western powers including the US.

The US has helped resolve conflicts between the two countries before. 

However, in the past, the US distanced itself from offering the role of mediator, so Trump’s offer is unprecedented. “It is remarkable to see a US president depart from decades of precedent in repeatedly stating his intent to help resolve the underlying issues between India and Pakistan, including Kashmir,” Threlkeld said.

Trump claims to have lured both to a ceasefire by promising more trade. With trade diplomacy, billions of dollars are at stake, and the US is the biggest trading partner for both countries.

The mediation offer has put PM Modi and his BJP government in a tight spot. India treats Kashmir as an integral part of its territory and rules out any negotiation, particularly through a third party. “Trump’s mediation offer — whether sincerely intended or diplomatically calculated — does challenge New Delhi’s no third-party doctrine,” said US-based defense analyst and author, Professor Hasan Abbas. 

The mediation offer triggered a fiery political debate in India about the US equating or hyphenating Pakistan with India, with the media calling it a blow to Indian diplomacy. “Domestically, this creates discomfort for Modi’s government, especially when its performance in the recent crisis is now under scrutiny,” Abbas added.

Indian opposition has demanded an independent inquiry.

Modi likely was overly confident of Washington’s outright support for his unilateral action against Pakistan, misreading the changing contours of diplomacy. 
Modi used the old ‘War on Terror’ playbook, ignoring that the US under Trump doesn’t want to fight foreign wars. He is interested in trade wars and not military battles. 

Trump wants to counter China, not militarily but through peace deals and trade. To do so, he wants to enhance US geostrategic influence in the Middle East and South Asia. The Indian attacks on Pakistan came a few days ahead of Trump’s historic visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, which he intended to showcase as a future playbook for US allies. He didn’t want it disrupted by war.

Trump’s intervention in the India-Pakistan conflict also indicates a renewed geostrategic interest in South Asia, which was perceived as diminished after the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan.

The US now wants to signal its regional presence to Beijing and doesn’t want China to use Pakistan and Afghanistan to access Iran and the Central Asian States. 

Beijing countered by hosting Pakistan’s and Afghanistan’s foreign ministers for increasing ties, an informal trilateral meeting signalling back China’s deep-rooted strategic and economic presence in the region. 

The China and Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is to be extended to Afghanistan for regional connectivity, bringing the Taliban regime close to China and challenging India’s bid for a strong footing in Afghanistan. 

As South Asia sees the increasing influence of both China and the US on diplomatic and economic fronts, it will become tricky for Pakistan to balance between Beijing and Washington diplomatically. It is China’s close ally, reliant on Beijing for military equipment and economic assistance. Pakistan imports more than 80 percent of its weapons from China, some of which were critical when ‘skilfully’ deployed against India recently. 

The conflict between India and Pakistan has now shifted to the diplomatic realm. Both countries are trying to solicit support abroad to strengthen their case against each other. 

“India will seek to use its relationships with key partners, including the US to pressure Pakistan through avenues including the Financial Action Task Force, IMF, and the UN’s 1267 sanctions committee,” Threlkeld said. 

On the domestic front, the conflict has implications for both countries, as both consider increasing their military budgets and military procurement. India’s defense budget is over eightfold more than Pakistan’s, yet Indian defense analysts in news talk shows urge further enhancement and modernization of warfare capabilities.

In Pakistan, the military has gained widespread popularity, silencing previous criticism of the army’s interference in politics. Army chief Gen. Asim Munir was promoted to Field Marshal and his popularity surged after the worst conflict in decades. 

Since Modi came into power in India, the normally tense relationship between the two countries has become bitter. Any mishap or terror attack in Indian-administered Kashmir triggers armed conflict. Since 2016 there hasn’t been any round of composite dialogue between the two countries. In 2019, India curtailed the special status of Jammu and Kashmir, further straining its relationship with Pakistan. 

Meanwhile, the rest of the world is stressed by both of them having nuclear capabilities. 

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), India and Pakistan possess about 170 nuclear weapons each.

“The presence of nuclear weapons adds a layer of danger to any military exchange, even if both sides claim restraint. The assumption that rational actors will always prevent a nuclear exchange is not foolproof in moments of emotional nationalism, miscalculation, or disinformation,” Abbas added. 

A few days after the current ceasefire, PM Modi in his national address referring to rival Pakistan being a nuclear power, stated, “[There] is no tolerance for nuclear blackmail; India will not be intimidated by nuclear threats.”

For now, both countries have agreed to withdraw troops back to their peacetime position. But as the saying goes, ceasefire along the LoC remains durable only until the next provocation. 

– Owais Tohid has reported extensively on war and conflict in Asia for 30 years and witnessed the rise and fall of the Taliban in Afghanistan. He has also covered the Palestinian conflict in the Occupied Territories and worked for the BBC World Service, AFP and CS Monitor. X: @OwaisTohid