From Pulwama to Pahalgam: What’s changed in the spicy sequel?
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Picture this: six years ago, the lush valleys of Pahalgam whispered peace, while Pulwama screamed conflict. Fast forward to April 2025, and the India-Pakistan saga has swapped its predictable script for a Bollywood blockbuster sequel — complete with swagger and a dangerous dose of misplaced bravado. What’s changed? The moves, the mood, and now, a sneaky water gambit that’s raising eyebrows. Buckle up for a tale of two nations — one itching for a showdown — where the stakes are higher, the toys shinier, and the audience (read: the world) is nervously munching popcorn.
In India, the Bharatya Janata Party (BJP) has chugged its own saffron-flavored Kool-Aid, convincing 1.4 billion people that India is the neighborhood’s new ‘big daddy.’ Think Uncle Sam, but with a twist — ready to flex its muscles and dreaming of dropping bombs wherever it pleases. The narrative? That Pakistan is a crumbling, mullah-run mess, led by a ragtag army that can’t punch back. This chest-thumping has drowned out India’s once-sober voices. Dissenters who dare call out Modi’s ‘lack of clothes,’ to quote the old fable, risk being branded traitors, leaving the echo chamber of “Hindu Rashtra” to reverberate unchallenged.
The BJP’s propaganda machine has worked overtime since the 2019 Balakot strikes, painting India as an untouchable superpower. With Rafale jets gleaming and drone tech buzzing, New Delhi’s war hawks are practically itching to press the big red button. And now, they’ve added a provocative twist to the story: putting the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in abeyance — a move that’s less about strategy and more about poking Pakistan where it hurts — its lifeline rivers.
Across the border, Pakistan’s had a vibe shift of its own. Around Pulwama, Islamabad tried playing nice, ditching its old playbook of backing shady actors in Kashmir and India. Under former army chief Qamar Javed Bajwa, Pakistan pivoted toward geoeconomics, hoping to charm India into a détente as the US shifted focus to greater power competition.
This isn’t just Balakot 2.0 — it’s a potential free-for-all. If bullets fly, the escalation could be swift and brutal, with drones, missiles, and water wars turning a skirmish into a regional nightmare.
Usman Yousuf
But India, smelling blood, doubled down — funelling chaos into Balochistan via Afghanistan and Iran. Pakistan’s olive branch — a neutral UN-led inquiry into the latest terror incident — was swatted away by a smug New Delhi. Now, Pakistan’s establishment is done turning the other cheek. The new mantra? “Tit-for-tat-plus.” That “plus” is the spicy part: think upgraded capabilities and a willingness to hit harder than ever. With both sides flaunting fancier tech — India’s Rafales versus Pakistan’s J-10Cs and armed UAVs — the next clash could make 2019’s dogfight look like a schoolyard scuffle. Add India’s IWT stunt to the mix, and Pakistan’s blood is boiling. Water is life, and India’s toying with it feels like a declaration of economic war.
The timeline tells the story. In February 2019, Pulwama’s tragedy — 44 Indian soldiers killed in a suicide bombing — sparked India’s Balakot strike on a supposed militant camp in Pakistan. Pakistan retaliated, downing an Indian jet and capturing its pilot, only to release him in a gesture of restraint and responsibility.
Fast forward to 2025, and the mood is uglier. India’s cosying up to the US via the Quad has emboldened Modi’s government, though Trump 2.0 isn’t exactly sending love letters. Meanwhile, domestic pressures are piling on: the Bihar elections loom, and the Waqf Amendment Bill 2025 has sparked protests, pushing the BJP to rally its base with some good ol’ Pakistan-bashing. A muscular Hindu Rashtra flex — perhaps another cross-border strike— could be just the ticket to shore up votes.
But the IWT abeyance, announced in March 2025, smells like a calculated distraction. India claims it’s responding to Pakistan’s alleged terror links, but skeptics see a darker motive: using a supposed “attack” as a pretext to renegotiate or even scrap the 1960 treaty that governs the shared Indus River system. This isn’t just posturing — it’s a deliberate provocation, threatening Pakistan’s agriculture and hydropower, which depend heavily on the Indus and its tributaries.
Pakistan, for its part, is nursing wounds from India’s alleged meddling. From mysterious blasts in Balochistan to attacks linked to Afghan-based proxies, Islamabad’s patience is thinner than a local chapati. The military, now led by General Asim Munir, has signalled it’s ready to retaliate. A January 2025 report from Pakistan’s Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) claimed “irrefutable evidence” of Indian-sponsored terrorism, though India scoffed and called it propaganda. ISPR’s press conference yesterday added more color — with recordings and confessions to boot.
Now, India’s IWT move has upped the ante. While the abeyance lacks teeth for now — India hasn’t physically diverted rivers yet — it’s a dangerous signal. If India unilaterally exits the treaty, it could choke Pakistan’s water supply, devastating its economy and food security. Worse, it sets a precedent for China, which controls the upper reaches of the Brahmaputra and could follow suit, squeezing India’s northeast. The ripple effect? A free-for-all where water treaties become diplomatic cannon fodder, destabilizing the region further.
This isn’t just Balakot 2.0 — it’s a potential free-for-all. If bullets fly, the escalation could be swift and brutal, with drones, missiles, and water wars turning a skirmish into a regional nightmare. The great powers — the US, China, Russia — are distracted, and their calls for restraint might fall on deaf ears. India’s IWT gambit only fuels the fire, and the BJP’s motives deserve a side-eye. Is this really about security, or a cynical ploy to rewrite a treaty that’s held firm for six decades?
The hope? A diplomatic off-ramp — maybe a back channel or a tense chai summit.
The fear? A miscalculation that lights the fuse on the border — or the rivers.
So, as India and Pakistan trade barbs, load their arsenals, and toy with water wars, the world watches — wondering if this spicy sequel will end in a ceasefire or a catastrophe. Let’s hope it’s the former — for all our sakes.
- Usman Yousuf is a UAE-based entrepreneur, investor, and coach who leads ventures across media, tech, and F&B, while mentoring regional talent. He chairs ProPakistani and invests globally through S2015.vc and Karakoram Capital, with a focus on innovation and socio-economic impact.
