Will shaky ceasefire hold in Lebanon as tensions simmer in the neighborhood?

Short Url
Updated 01 December 2024
Follow

Will shaky ceasefire hold in Lebanon as tensions simmer in the neighborhood?

  • Arab American Institute founder James Zogby and international law expert Brad Roth share their insights on the Ray Hanania Radio Show
  • Events in Syria suggest non-state actors taking advantage of weakness of Axis of Resistance alliance after setbacks in Gaza and Lebanon

CHICAGO/LONDON: As a fragile ceasefire in Lebanon meant to stop the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah enters its fifth day, experts have cast doubt on its sustainability, the region’s future stability and the role of international justice in holding leaders accountable for alleged war crimes.

To complicate matters, a surprise attack on Aleppo, a city in neighboring Syria, by militant groups on Thursday breached a five-year-long truce, reigniting a long-running civil war with an intensity not seen in years.

The most serious challenge to the government of President Bashar Assad in years, the assault has raised questions about whether non-state actors are trying to take advantage of weakness of the so-called Axis of Resistance alliance resulting from setbacks suffered by Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Appearing on “The Ray Hanania Radio Show” this week, Arab American Institute founder James Zogby and international law expert Brad Roth offered insights into the Lebanon ceasefire agreement and its broader geopolitical implications.




Arab American Institute founder James Zogby and international law expert Brad Roth. (Supplied photos)

The ceasefire, announced earlier this week, comes after months of intense fighting in southern Lebanon and Gaza. While it has brought temporary relief, the terms appear to favor Israel, with critics warning of its instability as the two factions “remaining fully equipped” to strike.

Zogby described the deal as “one-sided,” noting that Israel retains significant freedom to act unilaterally. “The US and France were pushing (for the ceasefire), but the terms of the deal are Israel’s terms,” Zogby said.

The truce, brokered by the US and France, revisits the framework of UN Resolution 1701, enacted 18 years ago. According to US President Joe Biden, the agreement is intended to establish a “permanent cessation of hostilities.” It calls for Israel to withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon and limits armed groups in the area to the Lebanese military and UN peacekeeping forces.




UN peacekeepers patrol in the southern Lebanese city of Marjayoun, near the border with Israel, on November 29, 2024. (AFP)

However, the updated terms grant Israel extensive leeway. A “reformulated and enhanced” mechanism, chaired by the US, allows Israel to strike Hezbollah arms shipments, a clause that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described as ensuring “full freedom of military action” with Washington’s backing.

Meanwhile, the US has pledged to rearm Israel, restoring its military capacity to pre-war levels.

“I don’t think we have a ceasefire in the real sense of a ceasefire. It’s not two teams agreeing to stop. There’s one team saying: ‘we gotta stop.’ That’s Lebanon. The other team is saying: ‘We’re going to continue if we need to and the way we want to’,” Zogby said, suggesting that Israel’s insistence on the ceasefire was partly driven by internal challenges.

“I think there’s another reason why Israel wanted this now, and that is that their troops are exhausted,” he said. “They’ve been fighting new fronts. Israel’s never fought a war this long. They’re already experiencing suicides and other forms of post-traumatic shock syndrome.”




Israeli tanks are seen near the border with Lebanon on November 28, 2024. James Zogby believes Israel has agreed to a ceasefire with the Hezbollajh largely because its troops are exhausted, (AFP)

Yet, Zogby warned that Israel’s military dominance remains unchecked. “The US has created a monster which has incredible offensive capability and no restraint. None. I used to compare Israel and the Palestinians to the spoiled child and the abused child. Israel’s the spoiled child with unlimited destructive capability, and that’s dangerous.”

In his Tuesday night announcement of the ceasefire, Netanyahu described Israel’s military campaign as “victorious” on all seven fronts — Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Iran — claiming it aimed to weaken adversaries and reshape the region. However, experts view his push to expand the war as a strategy to bolster his hold on power amid a corruption trial in which he is set to testify on Dec. 10, and to obscure the true focus of the conflict: Gaza.

“Lebanon never was the main arena. It’s always been about the conquest of the land of Palestine for them,” Zogby said, criticizing US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s remarks on Hezbollah’s role in Gaza, who claimed the war in Gaza lasted so long because “Hamas was counting on Hezbollah’s cavalry.




Lebanese army soldiers manning a checkpoint use a military vehicle to block a road in southern Lebanon's Marjayoun area on November 28, 2024, a day after a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect. (AFP)

“And I thought, ‘how dumb, how blindsided, how short-sighted, rather, can he be that he thinks that what’s going on in Gaza is Hamas holding out for Hezbollah to rescue them. This has always been about Israel destroying Hamas and the US supporting them in that. There’s never been a desire for a ceasefire or a peace agreement,” he said.

Zogby also highlighted Lebanon’s internal struggles following the conflict. With more than 1.2 million Lebanese displaced, primarily Shiite Muslims, tensions have escalated as they relocate to areas dominated by other sectarian groups. “The country, after all, has been on the brink for a long time,” Zogby said, pointing to the ceasefire’s terms, which critics say works in Israel’s favor.

Hezbollah’s decision to open a southern front in support of Gaza had drawn significant criticism within Lebanon. Many argued it exacerbated the nation’s economic and political crises, deepening divisions and compounding the devastation. While the ceasefire has provided a fleeting sense of relief, displaced Shiite residents, unable to return to their ruined homes, question what, if anything, was gained from the war.




Mourners carry the coffins of Hezbollah fighters killed in the fighting against Israeli troops as they pass by a destroyed building in Maarakeh village, southern Lebanon, on Nov. 29, 2024.(AP)

For Hezbollah, this raises existential challenges. Critics contend that its ability to mobilize support — long reliant on weapons, financial sway and promises of deterrence — has been severely weakened, leaving its future influence in the region uncertain.

The ceasefire coincides with the International Criminal Court’s move to issue arrest warrants for Netanyahu, former Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant and Hamas commander Mohammed Deif, accusing them of war crimes and crimes against humanity. However, the likelihood of these leaders facing justice remains slim, given Israel’s refusal to recognize the ICC’s jurisdiction.

INNUMBERS

3,900+ People killed in Lebanon in Israeli strikes since October 2023.

76+ Israeli soldiers killed in war with Hezbollah over same period.

44,000+ Estimated Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the same period.

Brad Roth, a professor of law at Wayne State University and an expert on international justice, outlined the challenges confronting the ICC. “In principle, if US forces commit war crimes or plausibly alleged to commit war crimes within the territory of a state that is either party to the ICC statute or has conferred specialty jurisdiction over the situation, then US forces can be subject to the jurisdiction of the ICC,” he said.

“The US has always objected to that, but they have never had very good grounds for objecting to it. And, of course, Israel as well is not a party and denies that Palestine is a state and, therefore, denies that Palestine has the legal capacity to confer jurisdiction over these territories to the ICC.”

He added that most legal experts agree Palestine satisfies the criteria for ICC jurisdiction.




Israel's genocidal war in Gaza, which it launched in response to the deadly Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, has killed at least 44,382 Palestinians as of Nov. 30, 2024, and wounded over 105,000, according to various agencies. Of those killed, more than 11,000 were children. (AFP photos)

The ICC, established through the Rome Statute in the late 1990s and operational since 2002, was designed to prosecute individuals for crimes such as genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity. However, its jurisdiction excludes major powers like the US, Israel, Russia and China, creating significant gaps in its authority. “It’s a sort of Swiss cheese here in terms of what it covers,” Roth said.

He highlighted that ICC member states are legally obligated to enforce arrest warrants, though enforcement often hinges on domestic politics rather than legal principles. “Then the question of whether the problem is that a state may be bound by the treaty to engage in the arrest and may be bound by customary international law to not engage in the arrest. And those domestic courts would have to deal with that question, and how that would come out is anyone’s guess,” he said.




The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (L) and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for war crimes, but there are doubts if they would ever be arrested because of continued US support for the genocidal Israeli regime. (AFP)

Adding to the complexity, French officials reportedly agreed to oversee the ceasefire’s implementation only after securing assurances that ICC warrants against Israeli leaders would not be enforced. Roth attributed this to the ICC’s reliance on US funding and support, which complicates its willingness to pursue cases against US allies.

“For that, you can draw your own conclusions about why it is that a body, so heavily dependent on US support and funding and assistance with investigation and so forth, might be reluctant to take action against the US,” he said.




Protesters attend a national demonstration in central London on November 30, 2024, demanding a halt to Israel's genocidal war against Palestinians. (AFP)

The US role in shielding Israel from international accountability has drawn criticism, particularly during the Gaza war. While the Biden administration has framed its unwavering support for Israel as essential for regional security, critics argue this stance exacerbates instability.

Zogby cautioned that continued backing of Israel’s military campaigns risks undermining long-term peace efforts, as evidenced by the resurgence of fighting in Syria.

According to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor, the militants, mainly from the Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, took control of “more than half of Aleppo” within hours on Friday without encountering any resistance from Syrian government forces. The official Syrian media challenged this narrative and claimed to have captured groups of “terrorists.”




Syrian militants patrol in central Aleppo on Nov. 30, 2024, as they pressed a lightning offensive against government forces. (AFP)

While the ceasefire has brought a temporary halt to the violence in Lebanon, the road ahead remains uncertain, particularly on issues related to justice and accountability.

To Roth, the ICC’s efforts to hold Israeli leaders accountable may exemplify the broader difficulties of navigating international law amid powerful political interests. A lasting resolution, he suggested, requires a robust international response addressing the root causes of the conflict.

“The Ray Hanania Radio Show” is broadcast every Thursday in Michigan on WNZK AM 690 Radio at 5 p.m. on the US Arab Radio Network and is sponsored by Arab News. To watch the full episodes and past shows, visit ArabNews.com/RayRadioShow.
 

 


Abbas thanks China over support for two-state solution, rejection of Gaza displacement

Updated 8 sec ago
Follow

Abbas thanks China over support for two-state solution, rejection of Gaza displacement

  • Palestinian Authority leader sends letter to Chinese President Xi Jinping
  • He commends Beijing’s call for international community to reach just resolution to Palestinian issue

LONDON: Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has thanked Chinese President Xi Jinping for his country’s rejection of plans to displace Palestinians from the Gaza Strip.

In a letter to the Chinese leader on Thursday, Abbas commended Beijing’s call for the international community to stop the violence in the Middle East and reach a just resolution to the Palestinian issue.

Abbas said that the PA is confident in China’s support for Palestinian and Arab “efforts to consolidate the ceasefire in Gaza, stop the current Israeli aggression on the cities and camps of the West Bank, accelerate the reconstruction of Gaza, reconnect it to the West Bank, move toward implementing the two-state solution, end the Israeli occupation and embody the independent, geographically integrated state, with East Jerusalem as its capital, so that we can live with all the peoples of the region in security, peace and stability,” according to Wafa agency.

Since early February, US President Donald Trump has repeatedly insisted that the US will take over Gaza and that its Palestinian inhabitants should be relocated from the enclave to other countries, including Egypt and Jordan, which have both rejected the proposal.

The PA labeled Trump’s plan — which was welcomed by the Israeli government and settler leaders — as ethnic cleansing. Arab and some European countries, including France, also denounced the US idea and called for reconstruction in Gaza without displacing its residents.


Kuwait’s PM affirms country’s diplomatic neutrality, leads delegation to Munich Security Conference

Updated 17 min 54 sec ago
Follow

Kuwait’s PM affirms country’s diplomatic neutrality, leads delegation to Munich Security Conference

  • Kuwait committed to leading humanitarian efforts in disaster-hit countries

LONDON: Kuwait’s Prime Minister Sheikh Ahmad Abdullah Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah arrived in Germany on Thursday to participate in the 61st session of the Munich Security Conference, which is being held from Feb. 14 to 16.

Sheikh Ahmad is leading the Kuwaiti delegation at a conference that brings together hundreds of decision-makers and opinion leaders to discuss global security.

The prime minister reaffirmed Kuwait’s commitment to building strong connections with the international community while advocating for the resolution of conflicts through dialogue and supporting efforts for peace and security.

Sheikh Ahmad said Kuwait had maintained its diplomatic ties by upholding neutrality and remaining at an equal distance from conflicting parties, the Kuwait Press Agency reported.

He added that Kuwait was committed to leading humanitarian efforts in disaster-stricken countries, and actively mediating to resolve regional and international crises.

Reem Mohammed Al-Khaled, Kuwait’s ambassador to Germany, along with embassy staff, received the prime minister on his arrival.


Houthis threaten new attacks if Gazans displaced

Demonstrators, one with a portrait of Houthi leader Abdul Malik Al-Houthi, shout slogans during a march in solidarity with Gaza.
Updated 31 min 8 sec ago
Follow

Houthis threaten new attacks if Gazans displaced

  • US President Donald Trump’s plan to move Gaza’s inhabitants and redevelop the territory has been widely condemned in the Arab world

SANAA: The Houthis on Thursday threatened to launch new attacks if the United States and Israel go ahead with plans to displace Palestinians from Gaza.
“We will take action by firing missiles and drones and launching maritime attacks if the United States and Israel implement their plan to displace” Palestinians from Gaza, Houthi leader Abdul Malik Al-Houthi said in a televised speech.
US President Donald Trump’s plan to move Gaza’s inhabitants and redevelop the territory has been widely condemned in the Arab world.
The Houthis have launched scores of attacks on Israeli targets and Red Sea shipping during the Israel-Hamas war.
“I call on the armed forces to be ready to take military action in the event that the criminal Trump carries out his threat,” Houthi said on the militia’s Al-Masirah TV station.


Construction equipment awaiting Gaza entry from Egypt: report

Bulldozers and trucks carrying caravans wait to enter Gaza at the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and the Gaza Strip.
Updated 13 February 2025
Follow

Construction equipment awaiting Gaza entry from Egypt: report

  • Israeli government spokesman said heavy machinery would not be allowed to enter the Gaza Strip via the Rafah crossing with Egypt

RAFAH: Dozens of bulldozers, construction vehicles and trucks carrying mobile homes lined up on Egypt’s side of the Rafah border crossing on Thursday, awaiting to enter Gaza, state-linked Egyptian media reported.
Al-Qahera News, with close ties to Egyptian intelligence services, said the equipment was positioned at the crossing in preparation for entry into the war-ravaged Palestinian territory.
An AFP photographer also confirmed seeing the vehicles, including trucks carrying caravans, waiting at the border.
However, an Israeli government spokesman said heavy machinery would not be allowed to enter the Gaza Strip via the Rafah crossing with Egypt.
“There is no entry of caravans (mobile homes) or heavy equipment into the Gaza Strip, and there is no coordination for this,” Omer Dostri, a spokesman for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, wrote on X.
“According to the agreement, no goods are allowed to enter the Gaza Strip through the Rafah crossing,” he added.
Under an ongoing truce agreement, Rafah has been opened for evacuation of the wounded and sick. Other aid is also allowed to enter the territory via the Kerem Shalom crossing.
“We stand behind them (Palestinians) and hopefully better days are ahead,” Ahmed Abdel Dayem, a driver at the border, told AFP.
The situation unfolds amid growing tensions over a US President Donald Trump plan to relocate Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt and Jordan, a move that has faced staunch opposition from both countries.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi called such displacement an “injustice” that Egypt “cannot take part in,” while Jordan’s King Abdullah said his country remains “steadfast” in its position against forced displacement of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank.
Egypt is set to host a summit of Arab nations later this month and announced this week that it would present a “comprehensive vision” for Gaza’s reconstruction in a way that ensures Palestinians remain on their land.
Egypt and Jordan, both key US allies, are heavily reliant on foreign aid and the US is considered one of their top donors.


International debt is creating instability, global investor says

Updated 13 February 2025
Follow

International debt is creating instability, global investor says

DUBAI: The debt problem is not one that only the US is facing — it is a world debt problem that China, Europe and many countries are confronting, according to Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates.

During a session conducted by TV host, Tucker Carlson, at the World Governments Summit on Wednesday, Dalio said: “If you have that debt problem, you exacerbate the great conflict that’s going to happen. You create political instability. It’s a geopolitical problem.

“Climate is costly, roughly $8 trillion a year on climate, so it’s a financial thing, and now the question is this new technology and how are we going to handle that and how do we make the most to raise productivity or what is it used for. Is it used for conflict?” 

Carlson said: “You have run one of the biggest hedge funds in the world for a long time, and in order to do that you have had to think about the rest of the world in a systematic way … in doing that, you have developed this framework for understanding what’s happening now and what’s going to happen.”

Carlson then asked Dalio to discuss the five trends that he had looked at to consider what was going to happen next.

As a global macro investor for 50 years, the Bridgewater Associates’ founder said that he discovered that he needed to study history. By doing so, he observed five major forces that operate in a big cycle.

The first is that “we have a big debt issue globally, that is very important… that is a force, a financial force.” 

The second, he said, is the internal order and disorder force that goes in a cycle in which there “is greater and greater gaps and conflicts between the left and the right and populism that forces a great conflict like a civil war.

“I believe we are in a form of a civil war now, that’s going on within countries,” he said.

The third force is the great world power conflict that occurs “when a great power runs the world order and then there is a rising power that challenges that, you have a great power conflict: US-China.”

The fourth force is that throughout history, acts of nature — “droughts, floods and pandemics — have killed more people than wars and have toppled world orders more than anything else.”

The fifth big force is “man’s inventiveness, particularly of technology.”

Dalio said: “Everything that we talk about, everything that we are looking at, falls under one of those and they move in a largely cyclical way and that is the framework that we are now living out.”

Giving his sense of the scale of global debt, Dalio said that “it’s now unprecedented in all of history” and went on to explain how it worked, saying “there is a supply-demand situation.

“The way the debt cycle works is, think of credit, and our credit system as being like a circulatory system, that credit brings buying power, brings nutrients to all the system … but that credit that we buy things with, that we buy financial assets, goods and services with, creates debt.

“That debt accumulates like plaque in a system that begins to have a problem because it starts to squeeze out spending, for example the US budget, about a trillion dollars a year now goes to pay interest rates. Over the next year we are going to have over $9 trillion debt that we have to pay back and roll forward hopefully.”

So there is a supply demand issue with this debt, “one man’s debts are another man’s assets.” Dalio added: “if those assets don’t provide an adequate return, or they feel there is risk in those assets, there is not enough demand for that debt, there is a problem … that problem is that interest rates then start to rise, and those holders of the debt begin to realize there is a debt problem, and worse, on the supply and demand, that they have to sell debt.”

Dalio said that the US would run a deficit of about 7.5 percent of GDP “if the Trump tax cuts are continued,” which he expected.

“That deficit needs to be cut to 3 percent of GDP… all policymakers and the president should have a pledge to get it to 3 percent of GDP, because otherwise we are likely to have a problem,” he said.