Will shaky ceasefire hold in Lebanon as tensions simmer in the neighborhood?

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Updated 01 December 2024
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Will shaky ceasefire hold in Lebanon as tensions simmer in the neighborhood?

  • Arab American Institute founder James Zogby and international law expert Brad Roth share their insights on the Ray Hanania Radio Show
  • Events in Syria suggest non-state actors taking advantage of weakness of Axis of Resistance alliance after setbacks in Gaza and Lebanon

CHICAGO/LONDON: As a fragile ceasefire in Lebanon meant to stop the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah enters its fifth day, experts have cast doubt on its sustainability, the region’s future stability and the role of international justice in holding leaders accountable for alleged war crimes.

To complicate matters, a surprise attack on Aleppo, a city in neighboring Syria, by militant groups on Thursday breached a five-year-long truce, reigniting a long-running civil war with an intensity not seen in years.

The most serious challenge to the government of President Bashar Assad in years, the assault has raised questions about whether non-state actors are trying to take advantage of weakness of the so-called Axis of Resistance alliance resulting from setbacks suffered by Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Appearing on “The Ray Hanania Radio Show” this week, Arab American Institute founder James Zogby and international law expert Brad Roth offered insights into the Lebanon ceasefire agreement and its broader geopolitical implications.




Arab American Institute founder James Zogby and international law expert Brad Roth. (Supplied photos)

The ceasefire, announced earlier this week, comes after months of intense fighting in southern Lebanon and Gaza. While it has brought temporary relief, the terms appear to favor Israel, with critics warning of its instability as the two factions “remaining fully equipped” to strike.

Zogby described the deal as “one-sided,” noting that Israel retains significant freedom to act unilaterally. “The US and France were pushing (for the ceasefire), but the terms of the deal are Israel’s terms,” Zogby said.

The truce, brokered by the US and France, revisits the framework of UN Resolution 1701, enacted 18 years ago. According to US President Joe Biden, the agreement is intended to establish a “permanent cessation of hostilities.” It calls for Israel to withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon and limits armed groups in the area to the Lebanese military and UN peacekeeping forces.




UN peacekeepers patrol in the southern Lebanese city of Marjayoun, near the border with Israel, on November 29, 2024. (AFP)

However, the updated terms grant Israel extensive leeway. A “reformulated and enhanced” mechanism, chaired by the US, allows Israel to strike Hezbollah arms shipments, a clause that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described as ensuring “full freedom of military action” with Washington’s backing.

Meanwhile, the US has pledged to rearm Israel, restoring its military capacity to pre-war levels.

“I don’t think we have a ceasefire in the real sense of a ceasefire. It’s not two teams agreeing to stop. There’s one team saying: ‘we gotta stop.’ That’s Lebanon. The other team is saying: ‘We’re going to continue if we need to and the way we want to’,” Zogby said, suggesting that Israel’s insistence on the ceasefire was partly driven by internal challenges.

“I think there’s another reason why Israel wanted this now, and that is that their troops are exhausted,” he said. “They’ve been fighting new fronts. Israel’s never fought a war this long. They’re already experiencing suicides and other forms of post-traumatic shock syndrome.”




Israeli tanks are seen near the border with Lebanon on November 28, 2024. James Zogby believes Israel has agreed to a ceasefire with the Hezbollajh largely because its troops are exhausted, (AFP)

Yet, Zogby warned that Israel’s military dominance remains unchecked. “The US has created a monster which has incredible offensive capability and no restraint. None. I used to compare Israel and the Palestinians to the spoiled child and the abused child. Israel’s the spoiled child with unlimited destructive capability, and that’s dangerous.”

In his Tuesday night announcement of the ceasefire, Netanyahu described Israel’s military campaign as “victorious” on all seven fronts — Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Iran — claiming it aimed to weaken adversaries and reshape the region. However, experts view his push to expand the war as a strategy to bolster his hold on power amid a corruption trial in which he is set to testify on Dec. 10, and to obscure the true focus of the conflict: Gaza.

“Lebanon never was the main arena. It’s always been about the conquest of the land of Palestine for them,” Zogby said, criticizing US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s remarks on Hezbollah’s role in Gaza, who claimed the war in Gaza lasted so long because “Hamas was counting on Hezbollah’s cavalry.




Lebanese army soldiers manning a checkpoint use a military vehicle to block a road in southern Lebanon's Marjayoun area on November 28, 2024, a day after a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect. (AFP)

“And I thought, ‘how dumb, how blindsided, how short-sighted, rather, can he be that he thinks that what’s going on in Gaza is Hamas holding out for Hezbollah to rescue them. This has always been about Israel destroying Hamas and the US supporting them in that. There’s never been a desire for a ceasefire or a peace agreement,” he said.

Zogby also highlighted Lebanon’s internal struggles following the conflict. With more than 1.2 million Lebanese displaced, primarily Shiite Muslims, tensions have escalated as they relocate to areas dominated by other sectarian groups. “The country, after all, has been on the brink for a long time,” Zogby said, pointing to the ceasefire’s terms, which critics say works in Israel’s favor.

Hezbollah’s decision to open a southern front in support of Gaza had drawn significant criticism within Lebanon. Many argued it exacerbated the nation’s economic and political crises, deepening divisions and compounding the devastation. While the ceasefire has provided a fleeting sense of relief, displaced Shiite residents, unable to return to their ruined homes, question what, if anything, was gained from the war.




Mourners carry the coffins of Hezbollah fighters killed in the fighting against Israeli troops as they pass by a destroyed building in Maarakeh village, southern Lebanon, on Nov. 29, 2024.(AP)

For Hezbollah, this raises existential challenges. Critics contend that its ability to mobilize support — long reliant on weapons, financial sway and promises of deterrence — has been severely weakened, leaving its future influence in the region uncertain.

The ceasefire coincides with the International Criminal Court’s move to issue arrest warrants for Netanyahu, former Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant and Hamas commander Mohammed Deif, accusing them of war crimes and crimes against humanity. However, the likelihood of these leaders facing justice remains slim, given Israel’s refusal to recognize the ICC’s jurisdiction.

INNUMBERS

3,900+ People killed in Lebanon in Israeli strikes since October 2023.

76+ Israeli soldiers killed in war with Hezbollah over same period.

44,000+ Estimated Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the same period.

Brad Roth, a professor of law at Wayne State University and an expert on international justice, outlined the challenges confronting the ICC. “In principle, if US forces commit war crimes or plausibly alleged to commit war crimes within the territory of a state that is either party to the ICC statute or has conferred specialty jurisdiction over the situation, then US forces can be subject to the jurisdiction of the ICC,” he said.

“The US has always objected to that, but they have never had very good grounds for objecting to it. And, of course, Israel as well is not a party and denies that Palestine is a state and, therefore, denies that Palestine has the legal capacity to confer jurisdiction over these territories to the ICC.”

He added that most legal experts agree Palestine satisfies the criteria for ICC jurisdiction.




Israel's genocidal war in Gaza, which it launched in response to the deadly Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, has killed at least 44,382 Palestinians as of Nov. 30, 2024, and wounded over 105,000, according to various agencies. Of those killed, more than 11,000 were children. (AFP photos)

The ICC, established through the Rome Statute in the late 1990s and operational since 2002, was designed to prosecute individuals for crimes such as genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity. However, its jurisdiction excludes major powers like the US, Israel, Russia and China, creating significant gaps in its authority. “It’s a sort of Swiss cheese here in terms of what it covers,” Roth said.

He highlighted that ICC member states are legally obligated to enforce arrest warrants, though enforcement often hinges on domestic politics rather than legal principles. “Then the question of whether the problem is that a state may be bound by the treaty to engage in the arrest and may be bound by customary international law to not engage in the arrest. And those domestic courts would have to deal with that question, and how that would come out is anyone’s guess,” he said.




The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (L) and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for war crimes, but there are doubts if they would ever be arrested because of continued US support for the genocidal Israeli regime. (AFP)

Adding to the complexity, French officials reportedly agreed to oversee the ceasefire’s implementation only after securing assurances that ICC warrants against Israeli leaders would not be enforced. Roth attributed this to the ICC’s reliance on US funding and support, which complicates its willingness to pursue cases against US allies.

“For that, you can draw your own conclusions about why it is that a body, so heavily dependent on US support and funding and assistance with investigation and so forth, might be reluctant to take action against the US,” he said.




Protesters attend a national demonstration in central London on November 30, 2024, demanding a halt to Israel's genocidal war against Palestinians. (AFP)

The US role in shielding Israel from international accountability has drawn criticism, particularly during the Gaza war. While the Biden administration has framed its unwavering support for Israel as essential for regional security, critics argue this stance exacerbates instability.

Zogby cautioned that continued backing of Israel’s military campaigns risks undermining long-term peace efforts, as evidenced by the resurgence of fighting in Syria.

According to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor, the militants, mainly from the Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, took control of “more than half of Aleppo” within hours on Friday without encountering any resistance from Syrian government forces. The official Syrian media challenged this narrative and claimed to have captured groups of “terrorists.”




Syrian militants patrol in central Aleppo on Nov. 30, 2024, as they pressed a lightning offensive against government forces. (AFP)

While the ceasefire has brought a temporary halt to the violence in Lebanon, the road ahead remains uncertain, particularly on issues related to justice and accountability.

To Roth, the ICC’s efforts to hold Israeli leaders accountable may exemplify the broader difficulties of navigating international law amid powerful political interests. A lasting resolution, he suggested, requires a robust international response addressing the root causes of the conflict.

“The Ray Hanania Radio Show” is broadcast every Thursday in Michigan on WNZK AM 690 Radio at 5 p.m. on the US Arab Radio Network and is sponsored by Arab News. To watch the full episodes and past shows, visit ArabNews.com/RayRadioShow.
 

 


Syria’s economy will be open for foreign investment, foreign minister says

Updated 7 sec ago
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Syria’s economy will be open for foreign investment, foreign minister says

“The economy in the future will be open and will open the road for foreign investment,” Al-Shibani told WEF
A committee of representatives from various groups would work on the country’s new constitution

DAVOS: Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan Al-Shibani said on Wednesday that the country will open its economy to foreign investment and that Damascus is also working on energy and electricity partnerships with Gulf states.
“Syria’s economic resources are diverse and we have a lot of sectors — industry, tourism... of course the economy in the future will be open and will open the road for foreign investment,” he said at the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland.
Shibani paid separate visits to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar in early January, during which he discussed bolstering ties.
Qatar has pledged to initially supply Syria with 200 megawatts of electricity and gradually increase the amount, the Gulf country’s prime minister said during a recent visit to Damascus.
At Davos, Shibani said a committee of representatives from various groups would work on the country’s new constitution after holding a national dialogue, which Syria’s leadership says will include all segments of society to chart a path for the nation after Islamist rebels ousted President Bashar Assad.
“We need an inclusive transition leading to a new constitution, free and fair elections, in a Syrian-led and Syrian-owned political process that will restore Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” UN Syria envoy Geir Pedersen said at a separate press conference in Damascus on Wednesday.
Both Pedersen and Shibani reiterated calls for ending the international sanctions imposed on Syria.

Yemeni migrant found dead on French channel beach: official

Updated 22 January 2025
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Yemeni migrant found dead on French channel beach: official

  • “It is a young man aged around 20 of Yemeni nationality,” the regional prefecture told AFP.
  • Bodies have been found washed up repeatedly on the beaches around Calais in recent months

SANGATTE, France: French officials said Wednesday the body of a young man from Yemen had been found on a beach in northern France from where many migrants seek to cross the channel in small boats to England.
The body was not far from the water on the sandy beach in Sangatte outside the northern port of Calais, surrounded by about 10 police officers, an AFP photographer saw.
“It is a young man aged around 20 of Yemeni nationality,” the regional prefecture told AFP.
Bodies have been found washed up repeatedly on the beaches around Calais in recent months. The small boats used by migrants to cross the Channel often capsize or suffer from chaotic embarkations during which some passengers are left in the water.
After a record year for deaths in the Channel, clandestine crossings have continued in the middle of winter, despite sometimes freezing temperatures.
Fifty-nine migrants aboard a boat in difficulty were rescued Tuesday at sea in French waters, local officials said.
At least 77 migrants died in 2024 while trying to reach England on board small boats, a record since the start of this type of crossing in 2018.
On January 11, a 19-year-old Syrian died during an attempted crossing, “probably crushed” by other migrants during departure, according to the authorities.
Both London and Paris have vowed to crack down on the people smugglers who are paid sometimes thousands of euros by migrants to organize the crossing to England.
But the issue has also repeatedly caused tensions between the French and British governments. Paris has claimed that London’s lax enforcement of employment rules attracts migrants.
There have been high-profile arrests of people smugglers, but activists say the traffickers are now trying to pack more people into the small boats, making the crossings even more dangerous.


Israeli army builds wall on Blue Line, reinstalls border cameras

Updated 22 January 2025
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Israeli army builds wall on Blue Line, reinstalls border cameras

  • Israeli army is using the remaining time in the ceasefire deal with Hezbollah to establish control over the Lebanese border area
  • European Council approves $62m aid package for Lebanese Army ‘to carry out its sensitive mission’

BEIRUT: An Israeli force on Wednesday advanced into the Lebanese town of Taybeh, conducted extensive searches in the area up to Adchit Al-Qusayr and set fire to several homes.

Separately, an Israeli drone struck an area between Wadi Khansa and Al-Majidiya in the Hasbaya district.

The Israeli army is using the remaining time in the ceasefire deal with Hezbollah to establish control over the Lebanese border area.

A security source reported that the Israeli army reinstalled surveillance cameras and listening devices along the border.

The official National News Agency reported that the Israeli army “completed the construction of the concrete separation wall along the Blue Line from Yarin to Dahira.”

As the Lebanese army continues to establish positions in areas vacated by the Israeli army and prepares to enter the town of Hanine in the Bint Jbeil district, a number of residents from the towns of Al-Bayyadah, Shamaa, Alma Al-Shaab and Naqoura in the western sector were permitted to visit their hometowns.

Activists on social media circulated statements urging local populations to “prepare for Sunday, the date by which, according to the ceasefire agreement, the Israeli withdrawal from the border area should have occurred, allowing people to return to their towns.”

However, the Israeli army has continued to prohibit locals from entering the towns, using gunfire as a warning.

A statement issued to residents of Khiam urged caution and advised against hasty returns, “pending an official announcement from the relevant authorities to assess the security situation, as well as from the Lebanese Army, which is expected to clarify the situation on Saturday evening and determine whether a safe return is feasible.”

The statement said: “We are dealing with a treacherous enemy. Do not grant them the opportunity for betrayal, aggression, murder, bombardment and destruction once again.”

In support of the Lebanese Army, the European Council approved on Wednesday a third aid measure under the European Peace Facility, amounting to €60 million ($62 million) for the army.

The measure, according to a statement, “contributes to enhancing the capabilities of the Lebanese army to enable it — in line with Resolution 1701 — to redeploy and secure and maintain stability in the South Litani sector.

“This contributes to protecting the civilian population in the area, and works to enhance the operational capabilities and effectiveness of the Lebanese army, to contribute to national and regional security, thus allowing displaced civilians on both sides to return to their homes.”

Kaja Kallas, EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, said: “This new assistance represents a significant increase in the EU’s support to the Lebanese Armed Forces within the framework of the European Peace Facility, at a crucial stage in the implementation of the ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel.

“The Lebanese Armed Forces are essential for regional and local stability, and deserve our full support in carrying out their sensitive mission. The EU and its member states remain strongly committed to supporting Lebanese state institutions and renewing the EU-Lebanon partnership.”

The resolution affirmed “the EU’s commitment to supporting the Lebanese Armed Forces’ capacity to redeploy in the South Litani sector, particularly following the 60-day ceasefire agreement.

“The Lebanese Armed Forces’ plan to redeploy in the South Litani sector is essential to accompany international efforts to achieve a permanent ceasefire and implement resolution 1701,” it said.

“The Lebanese Armed Forces is the main guarantor, alongside UNIFIL, to create the necessary security conditions to restore stability and security for the population on both sides of the border.”

Meanwhile, Sheikh Mohammed Khalil Hamadeh, a Hezbollah official in Western Bekaa, was shot in front of his home by unknown assailants on Tuesday evening. He was hit by six bullets and died in hospital.

It was the first assassination in Lebanese territory since a ceasefire agreement between Hezbollah and Israel went into effect 57 days ago.

An investigation has been launched to identify the perpetrators and the motives of the assassination, especially as Sheikh Hamadeh was a well-known figure in the region.

In a statement, Hezbollah mourned Hamadeh, describing him as “a leader and a warrior, who was martyred.”

Security information said that the gunmen who assassinated him were “driving a civilian car with tinted windows.”

Bekaa MP Ghassan Skaf did not rule out the potential involvement of Israeli spy agency Mossad, “which operates without being bound by any truce.”

He said: “The last war proved that the number of agents inside Lebanon, especially within the supportive environment of Hezbollah, was greater than even the party itself expected. Therefore, even if Israel were to withdraw completely from Lebanon, it would not halt its policy of assassinations.”

In another development, Layal Alekhtiar, Al Arabiya channel’s anchor, landed in Beirut on Wednesday and was accompanied by security forces from the airport to the Justice Palace in Beirut.

A search and arrest warrant was issued against her in November 2023 by the Lebanese Military Public Prosecution.

The warrant followed an inquiry initiated at the behest of individuals close to Hezbollah, following Alekhtiar’s live interview with Israeli army spokesman Avichay Adraee on Al Arabiya.

Lebanese law forbids interactions with Israelis.

A Lebanese security source said: “Alekhtiar was immediately referred to the first investigative judge in Beirut Fadi Sawan at the Justice Palace. Following the interrogation, Alekhtiar was released on bail for 50 million Lebanese pounds ($558).”

Two months after Hezbollah opened a front to support Hamas, Alekhtiar sparked outrage among Hezbollah supporters when she interviewed Adraee on Al Arabiya and addressed him as “ustaz” (mister) and thanked him as “the Israeli army spokesman.”

Alekhtiar had described the complaint against her on social media as “a blatant political persecution in the form of judicial repression,” adding that “this has nothing to do with truth and justice.”

She addressed those who filed the complaint, saying: “They are the ones who plundered the state, bankrupted the people, and gave up the nation’s sovereignty and wealth. They are now covering up their crimes with fabrications to suppress freedoms.”

She added: “You will never affect my freedom, my dignity and my convictions no matter what you do.”


Greek authorities say more than 170 migrants picked up as arrivals from Libya increase

Updated 22 January 2025
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Greek authorities say more than 170 migrants picked up as arrivals from Libya increase

  • The migrants said they had set sail from Tobruk in Libya and had been heading to Greece
  • Greece has been on one of the preferred routes into the European Union for people fleeing war and poverty in the Middle East

ATHENS: Greek authorities say more than 170 migrants have been picked up from rickety boats in the past three days with most found off the southern tip of the country in a route that appears to be increasingly used by traffickers.
Greece’s coast guard said Wednesday that a passing Philippines-flagged tanker had rescued 29 people found on a boat 65 nautical miles (120 kilometers, 75 miles) south of the southern island of Crete.
Another 45 people were rescued overnight by a Marshall Islands-flagged cargo ship 42 nautical miles (78 kilometers, 49 miles) south of the tiny island of Gavdos.
A patrol boat on Tuesday came across a speedboat carrying migrants near the eastern island of Tilos, with a chase resulting in the speedboat driver running the vessel aground on a beach, the coast guard said. A foot patrol later located a total of 31 people, including seven children and four women, while authorities arrested a 37-year-old Moldovan national as the alleged driver.
Another 68 people were located in two separate cases in Crete and Gavdos Monday: 19 men and one boy found just having disembarked from on a wooden boat on the southern coast of Crete, and another 48 people, all men, found on Gavdos. In both cases, the migrants said they had set sail from Tobruk in Libya and had been heading to Greece.
For decades Greece has been on one of the preferred routes into the European Union for people fleeing war and poverty in the Middle East, Africa and Asia, and has seen a spike in arrivals from neighboring Turkiye and the Libyan coast over the past year. In 2024, the country recorded more than 60,000 arrivals — the vast majority by sea — compared to just over 48,000 the previous year.
While most people head to eastern Greek islands from the nearby Turkish coast, many are now opting for the perilous 300-kilometer (200-mile) journey from the Libyan coast to the islands of Crete and Gavdos, officials have said.


Shooting, explosions in Jenin as Israel presses raid

Updated 22 January 2025
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Shooting, explosions in Jenin as Israel presses raid

  • Operation takes place days after ceasefire between Israel, Hamas took effect in Gaza
  • UN Secretary-General Guterres calls for “maximum restraint” from Israeli security forces

JENIN: A Palestinian official reported shooting and explosions in the flashpoint West Bank town of Jenin on Wednesday as Israeli forces pressed a raid that the military described as a “counterterrorism” operation.
“The situation is very difficult,” Kamal Abu Al-Rub, the governor of Jenin, told AFP.
“The occupation army has bulldozed all the roads leading to the Jenin camp, and leading to the Jenin Governmental Hospital... There is shooting and explosions,” he added.
On Tuesday, Israeli forces launched an operation in Jenin which Palestinian officials said killed 10 people, just days after a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas took effect in the Gaza Strip.
According to Abu Al-Rub, Israeli forces detained around 20 people from villages near Jenin, a bastion of Palestinian militancy.
The Israeli military said it had launched a “counterterrorism operation” in the area, and had “hit over 10 terrorists.”
“Additionally, aerial strikes on terror infrastructure sites were conducted and numerous explosives planted on the routes by the terrorists were dismantled,” it said in a statement on Wednesday.
“The Israeli forces are continuing the operation.”
Defense Minister Israel Katz vowed to continue the assault.
“It is a decisive operation aimed at eliminating terrorists in the camp,” Katz said in a statement on Wednesday, adding that the military would not allow a “terror front” to be established there.
On Tuesday, the Israeli military and the Shin Bet security agency announced that, in coordination with the Border Police, they had launched an operation named “Iron Wall” in the area.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the raid aimed to “eradicate terrorism” in Jenin.
He linked the operation to a broader strategy of countering Iran “wherever it sends its arms — in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen,” and the West Bank.
The Israeli government has accused Iran, which supports armed groups across the Middle East, including Hamas in Gaza, of attempting to funnel weapons and funds to militants in the West Bank.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for “maximum restraint” from Israeli security forces and expressed deep concern, according to his deputy spokesman, Farhan Haq.
Jenin and its refugee camp are known strongholds of Palestinian militant groups, and Israeli forces frequently carry out raids targeting armed factions in the area.
Violence has surged throughout the occupied West Bank since the Gaza war erupted on October 7, 2023.
According to the Palestinian health ministry, Israeli troops or settlers have killed at least 848 Palestinians in the West Bank since the Gaza conflict began.
Meanwhile, at least 29 Israelis have been killed in Palestinian attacks or during Israeli military operations in the territory during the same period, according to official Israeli figures.