Will 2023 be any better for Pakistan?
https://arab.news/2xnd8
For once, it would be nice to wish the country a happy new year without it turning out to be a huge lie. And let’s face it, with the way this past year has been, there is no sane reason to think that we’re in for better times in the next 365.24 days.
Let’s start with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan which, after the Afghan Taliban famously broke the shackles of slavery, has re-emerged as a clear and present danger. This terror outfit, which had seen its bases destroyed and ranks decimated, has regained enough strength to stage near daily attacks on army and police personnel. This isn’t exactly the TTP of old, as this time they seem to be taking care to avoid mass casualty attacks on civilian targets and instead focusing primarily on attacking security forces. In addition to this, they have modified their propaganda to include nationalist appeals in KP and also seem intent of making bridgeheads in Balochistan, again modifying their propaganda to suit. And the quality of their messaging has also become far more sophisticated, taking a clear page from the Afghan Taliban’s tactics. Hardly a day goes by now without a report of some TTP attack on a convoy or check post, whether through ambush, frontal assault or the use of IEDs, and while every such official statement from the government or ISPR clearly notes the resolve to defeat these terrorists, increasingly we see that the ratio of terrorist to security forces casualties is tipping dangerously in favor of the former.
Worst of all, much of this is thanks to a frankly insane and absolutely delusional belief that the ‘state’ could somehow negotiate peace with those whose stated agenda is the destruction of said state. To absolutely no one’s surprise except the deluded minds who dreamed up this scheme, this ceasefire was used by the TTP to regain ground and reactivate their networks. Even as the state clung to its wrongheaded plan, the TTP returned to Swat and other areas in a very public show of force. Typically, the state first denied such reports and accused those raising the alarm of alarmism and then acted only when protests swept Swat and other such areas.
Then there’s Balochistan, where separatist insurgents mounted a series of high-profile attacks, again showing a significant increase in the sophistication of their training, weaponry and messaging. They also demonstrated their reach in the suicide attack on Chinese nationals at the gate of Karachi University. In return there have been targeted operations of the kind we have seen many times in the past and will likely see again in the near future. But these are tactics without any real strategy, and a look at how Balochistan is actually governed by its ‘elected’ representatives is enough to put paid to any hopes of a politically-led settlement of this issue.
The government does not want to see its remaining political support swept away by an energized PTI, and is hoping desperately for a miracle before the general elections. No such miracle seems to be on the horizon, and any ‘relief’ in the form of roll-overs or deposits will be temporary at best
Zarrar Khuhro
Speaking of Balochistan, how can we ignore Gwadar? The crown Jewel of CPEC was supposed to be an unparalleled success story, a shining beacon that would demonstrate the state’s commitment to that province. Instead, Gwadar has been in lockdown for the last week of the past year, thanks to protests by Maulana Hidayat-ur-Rehman’s Haq Do Tehreek, which claims that the government has not fulfilled its key demand of cracking down on the illegal trawlers that threaten the livelihoods of local fishermen. They ask how it is possible that Gwadar can have a lush cricket stadium, but not enough drinking water, and the only answer is that – just like as with talks with the TTP – some small men in big offices thought that this was a good idea.
As for politics, despite loud pledges of neutrality, the telltale signs of political engineering are everywhere: The Balochistan Awami Party, an establishment construct if there ever was one, is all set to practically melt into the ranks of the PPP. In Karachi, efforts abound to ‘reunite’ the MQM factions into a cohesive whole that can (presumably) challenge the PTI in that city. Why else do you think Kamran Tessori is governor? Of course, within this lie the seeds of further flip-flops in the future, as even if all the MQM factions do combine and cooperate, the fact is that without Altaf Hussain’s blessings the MQM voter will likely sit it out, if he doesn’t in fact vote for the PTI or some other alternative. Will neutrality extend to giving Altaf some form of amnesty? The MQM-London chief’s latest video addressed to the new army chief does seem to indicate his willingness to mend bridges and, let’s face facts, stranger things have happened.
But that’s a concern for election time and right now the Pakistan Democratic Movement government seems terrified of any form of democratic elections. Just take a look at the ridiculous delays in holding local bodies elections and the attitude of the government and the Election Commission of Pakistan towards those elections. Clearly, the government does not want to see its remaining political support swept away by an energized PTI, and is hoping desperately for a miracle before the general elections. No such miracle seems to be on the horizon, and any ‘relief’ in the form of roll-overs or deposits will be temporary at best: A short stabilization followed by the same old crisis. Even if dollars do somehow come flowing in, the trickle-down will not be enough for the man on the streets to vote their way in large numbers. After all, wasn’t one of the reasons for the vote of no-confidence said to be rising inflation? Well, take a look at the numbers now.
And in the midst of all this, we see the bubble of a ‘technocrat government’ being floated, which is another indicator of the absolute lack of original ideas by those helming this ship of ours. Then there’s societal degeneration in general, from a child abuse epidemic to horrific violence against women, the latest awful example being that of Daya Bheel. It seems that when Jinnah pronounced that ‘no power on earth can undo Pakistan,’ we took it as a challenge.
- Zarrar Khuhro is a Pakistani journalist who has worked extensively in both the print and electronic media industry. He is currently hosting a talk show on Dawn News. Twitter: @ZarrarKhuhro
