How do countries like Pakistan navigate the impact of Russia’s Ukraine invasion?
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An extraordinary global crisis is in the making. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has triggered a dangerous Cold War between the US and Russia. Russia's fears of NATO getting close to its borders is understandable but it should also bear in mind that a similar fear led to the Soviet Union invasion of Afghanistan in December 1979 on the pretext of upholding the Soviet-Afghan Friendship Treaty and its subsequent retreat.
The US too applies different standards to suit its global aims of domination. Its adventures in Vietnam, Iraq and later in Afghanistan were monumental failures and loss of face. But major powers seldom learn from their mistakes or own up to their breaches of sovereignty. When Israel wreaks havoc with the lives of Palestinians and occupies their land, the US looks the other way.
President Vladimir Putin continues to brush aside global condemnation and seemed to have foreseen the harsh responses when he launched his full-scale ground war in Ukraine. Russia’s formidable nuclear arsenal gives it the confidence to brush aside the strong condemnation of the US and its western allies. Interestingly, Russia recently staged a spectacular strategic missile display of its vast range of missiles and firepower, including hypersonic ICBMs while its Navy was displaying its ships of the Pacific and Black Sea fleet.
Prime Minister Imran Khan’s visit to Russia, which was planned much earlier, coincided with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Initially, it was expected that Pakistan’s delegation, realizing how this crisis would preoccupy President Putin and other Russian officials, would be called off prematurely. But this did not happen and the visit continued according to schedule. PM Khan had a full three-hour session with President Putin in which a range of subjects were covered-- which were of interest to both parties.
Pakistan wants to develop a comprehensive and broad-based relationship with Russia, but with Western countries fully backing Ukraine during the invasion, it is expected Islamabad will exercise greater caution and balance in handling the relationship.
Trade with Russia however, will continue. Russian exports to Pakistan consist of edible vegetables, iron and steel, inorganic chemicals and machinery while Pakistan exports fruits, apparel, vegetables and cereals. Pakistan is interested in expanding cooperation with Russia in the energy, defense and space sectors and negotiations on the gas pipeline project is in the advanced stages with a memorandum of understanding signed. With US and Western sanctions and a ban on purchases, the consequences of these projects have to be assessed seriously.
The first adverse fallout of the war has been that energy costs are going up and will hit countries, especially energy importing ones like Pakistan, the most.
Talat Masood
If we look back at history, the US has committed similar ventures. In October 2001, it invaded Afghanistan and in March of 2003 it invaded Iraq-- but now it is defending Ukraine against a Russian invasion.
Ukraine’s desire to be a part of the West and NATO is unacceptable to Russia and is the rationale for its attack. Ukraine is expected to fight a war of resistance by its citizens to regain its independence. As Russian forces attack military installations and key strategic targets across the country, it is clear Russia is going for an all-out war. Meanwhile, cyber-attacks by both sides continue. Crimea and provinces close to Russia in the east of Ukraine are Russian speaking and constitute 30% of the population. In fact, what provided Russia the rationale for intervention was its support of the breakaway elements in Ukraine’s Donbas region which, according to its version, were subjected to extreme cruelty bordering on genocide by the Ukrainian government.
The first adverse fallout of the war has been that energy costs are going up and will hit countries-- especially energy importing ones like Pakistan-- the most. Stocks have globally fallen and a state of uncertainty prevails in financial markets.
Pakistan enjoys good relations with Ukraine and there is close cooperation between the two countries in the field of defense. Its main battle tank, the M-80, is of Ukrainian origin and there are several other areas in defense—helicopters, electronics, night vision devices etcetera in which the two militaries have been cooperating. Trade in agricultural products has increased over the years. And fortunately, the Indian factor has been more or less absent while dealing with Ukraine.
Ultimately it is the Russian people who will have to pay a heavy price for this war as US and EU sanctions come into effect. With the economy already struggling, the impact will be even greater. This could lead to public discontent; already visible despite being suppressed. The Ukrainian government is determined to get closer to its Western allies rather than remain in the camp of the Russians.
The Chinese government is fully backing Russia and has accused the US and western allies of being responsible for aggravating the crisis. By importing Russian wheat at this time, it would be easing the impact of Western sanctions on Russia. India too will not like to offend Russia, and despite America’s insistence, has not condemned the invasion. As expected, it abstained on the UN Security Council resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has nonetheless placed South Asian countries, especially India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, in a difficult situation. There are challenges no matter what position they take.
— Talat Masood is a retired Lieutenant General from Pakistan Army and an eminent scholar on national security and political issues.
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