The regional impact of US-Russia tensions
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Moscow’s relationship with the West is its foremost foreign policy challenge. It is also a relationship that is presently facing a serious crisis as fears of Russian expansion in Ukraine have pitched US and Russia in a confrontational mode.
Growing hostilities arising out of the major power rivalry pose a huge challenge of diplomacy for the countries of South Asia. The more relevant question for Pakistan is how to navigate its relationship between the major powers amid this growing schism and reduce its negative impact. The US has already imposed unilateral sanctions on Russia to squeeze its economy and discourage other countries from having economic ties and trade relations with it.
The present crisis over Ukraine is viewed by Russia as a US provocation meant to expand NATO eastward right up to the borders of Russia with the intent to integrate Ukraine into the North Atlantic alliance. This policy of eastward expansion is not new and was initiated by President Clinton and followed by Presidents Bush and Obama. But coming as close as Ukraine is unacceptable to Russia and it will resist it strongly as it is doing now. Earlier too, in 2014 Russian troops advanced into Ukraine’s Crimea region and occupied it when they felt threatened.
In the present scenario, Russia has stepped up deployments to Ukraine’s northern neighbor Belarus and signalled to US and NATO that it will not accept Ukraine’s alignment with the West. It has already positioned 115,000 troops close to Ukraine’s border in response to US deployments in that region.
The possibility of Pakistan further expanding its relationship with Russia in the energy sector, CPEC, defense and space cooperation exists.
Talat Masood
These mutually escalatory steps based on lack of trust are increasing tensions and could be dangerous, giving rise to fears that Russia is poised for a war. US build up is to send a strong message that it will react strongly in case of aggression from the Russian side.
In a major move to counter the US and Western view of the world and its influence, Russia and China have moved closer to each other and have entered into a deep strategic partnership. It has been described as something unique that goes beyond any “political or military alliance of the Cold War era”. It is well timed and supposedly a befitting response to the hard positions that the US and the West have taken against Russia and China. During the Cold War, the US had all of Western Europe allied with it and China had serious ideological and political differences with the Soviet Union. This time, the US has support of the West but Germany is unwilling to take a hard position as it has economic and strategic interests interwoven in its relations with Russia.
The prospects of the new cold war getting dangerous are real as NATO is moving close to Russian borders. There is a concern among nuclear experts that the Ukraine crisis could escalate to dangerous levels. This is also what the renowned strategist, the late Stephen Cohen, had predicted years ago. There is also a school of thought that Russia also like the West does not want to engage in a war but its vast array of tactics broadly aims at destabilizing the West, while moving away from the legacy of the Cold War era.
India, despite its trumpeted relationship with the US, maintains strong ties with Russia, and this was very evident in how it abstained from voting on the recent UNSC resolution on Ukraine.
The recent $5.4 billion missile defense system sale to India by Russia is another manifestation of New Delhi taking advantage of its relations with both major powers. These developments are raising doubts among US policy makers as to what extent they can rely on India as a strategic ally. Not surprising are the recent remarks of US State Department’s spokesperson Ned Price at a press briefing that Pakistan is its strategic partner. Probably, giving a signal to India not to take the US strategic relationship for granted. Pakistan has all along insisted that its relationship with China is no bar in its traditional relationship with the US.
In recent years, Pakistan’s relations with Russia have significantly improved. The possibility of further expanding this relationship in the energy sector, CPEC, defense and space cooperation exists. Pakistan is in a unique position that despite its strong strategic partnership with China and expanding relations with Russia it is regaining the confidence of the US. It should consolidate these diplomatic strengths for economic development and political stability.
- Talat Masood is a retired Lieutenant General from Pakistan Army and an eminent scholar on national security and political issues.
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