UK still counting the cost 10 years on from Brexit vote

Regardless of how hard some in the UK try to pretend Brexit was a necessary step toward sovereignty, territorial integrity and the curbing of toxic freedom of movement and freeloading on its generous benefits system, as well as offering dividends for people, society and the economy, the figures are unfortunately showing the opposite on all fronts.
During 2026, the 10th anniversary of the Brexit referendum will pass. Leaving the EU was drummed up as a lifeline for the British people, giving them independence, even though it was only approved by a slim and unconvincing majority. Five years since Britain abandoned the single market and customs union, ending freedom of movement in the EU for its citizens, the country is still suffering from the reverberations and aftershocks of that self-inflicted, avoidable earthquake.
Those that still believe in Brexit continue to defend it, claiming that it was merely unfortunately timed, as it has coincided with calamities such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the increase in the cost of living and the disruption of trade and commerce due to the changes witnessed in the US.
Brexiteers also continue to claim that the withdrawal agreement was badly negotiated by a shambolic Conservative government that, after years of austerity, decided to swiftly break with EU rules and standards, destroying institutional due processes and preventing a smooth transition. This led to disruptions, shortages and new administrative cycles that broke with norms, increased costs for producers and consumers alike and damaged the country’s resilience and prosperity.
A lost decade has passed since that vote and the verdict is clearly written everywhere. The Brexit doomsday is still being felt as people live through economic and political near-paralysis. The country is still grappling with the tough new trade barriers that were insisted on by the London-based architects of that bitter divorce deal and all its consequential blows to trade, investment, economic growth and living standards. Above all, Brexit has created a climate of uncertainty that has plagued the UK’s services and industries ever since.
The stark figures show losses to the economy in the billions, with state revenues suffering similarly. And it seems the big political freeze that dominated the morning after the vote — the idleness and lack of leadership — persists regarding the means to turn the corner. There is a lack of will due to a fear that any rapprochement with Europe could create more division in what is already a highly polarized society.
Labour’s landslide election victory 18 months ago gave Prime Minister Keir Starmer a huge majority that he has been slow to capitalize on in terms of channeling it to make a difference with a real UK-EU reset. Though the two sides have taken major steps on youth mobility, energy and defense and security cooperation, this falls short and does not register on the scale of Brexit’s impact on society or the economy. From the start, leaving the EU was forecast to hit the UK’s economy by 4 percent, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility.

The stark figures show losses to the economy in the billions, with state revenues suffering similarly.

Mohamed Chebaro

The red lines Labour drew for itself in its election manifesto may have been relevant when the party was preparing itself for the vote but, since then, more water has gone under the bridge in terms of challenges and adversities facing the UK. Not least, there is the rise of an ultra-right that has made enmity to the EU and to foreigners generally two essential tenets of its rhetoric. This is despite the fact Brexit caused the UK to recover from the pandemic more slowly than other G7 nations, while it has also slipped to sixth place in the list of the world’s leading economies.
In December, a YouGov poll revealed that large sections of the British public have shifted toward wanting to rejoin the EU’s customs union, largely due to economic concerns and a desire for a closer relationship with the bloc. Eighty percent of those who voted Labour in July 2024 believe the prime minister should open negotiations for joining the union. The survey also revealed that 70 percent of Labour, Liberal Democrat and Green voters would support a future PM opening talks on rejoining the EU. Even among Conservative voters, 25 percent of those questioned said a new leader should start negotiations for rejoining, something Starmer once said is unlikely to happen during his lifetime.
Meanwhile, a Savanta poll found that 67 percent of 2024 Labour voters would prefer the government to rejoin the customs union rather than increase taxes. This is in addition to a November survey that revealed that three-quarters of voters who felt that Brexit was harmful favored joining the single market and customs union to lower taxes in the UK.
Also, Brexit cost UK business £37 billion ($49 billion) in the 12 months to September 2024, according to a report published by The Independent, leading ministers to pledge to tear down trade barriers with the EU. The report stated that Britain’s total trade with the bloc was 5 percent lower than before Brexit.
One does not need to look far in the UK to find evidence of low morale, the high cost of living, the sluggish economy, poor productivity and dwindling social services, which have been made worse by the Brexit conundrum the country entered 10 years ago due to that fateful vote. Breaking the downward spiral that some call the “doom loop” is in the hands of Starmer and his government, backed by the vast majority Labour commands in Parliament. The government’s lack of direction should end by making saving the economy its way to regain balance and reverse its waning popularity. Starmer should choose boldness and rejoin the customs union if it is the way to redress the damage suffered as a result of the bad deal agreed by the previous Conservative government.
In 2026, all eyes will be on Starmer and whether he will be able to unshackle himself and the country from the consequences of that 2016 referendum.

• Mohamed Chebaro is a British-Lebanese journalist with more than 25 years’ experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy.