Rough ride ahead for Pakistan’s government
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Last year has not been auspicious for the government of Prime Minister Imran Khan as it struggled to keep itself afloat with the economy in dire-straits and having lost much political ground. The setback in the local bodies’ elections in its bastion in Khyber Pakhtunkhawa is ominous for the ruling party with the dawn of the new year.
It’s not going to be easy for a fragile coalition government to navigate the choppy waters. The fate of the government will depend on how it deals with political and economic challenges that lie ahead. The new year is likely to be extremely tempestuous with the widening cracks in the coalition and growing fissures in the ranks of the ruling party.
With the beginning of the year, the government would be facing the first major challenge to get a supplementary finance bill passed by parliament amid growing dissent in coalition ranks. The unpopular and highly controversial financial measures are required under IMF conditionalities. The new taxes will have serious political implications for the government struggling to maintain its razor thin majority in the parliament.
It will further expose its vulnerability if the government fails to get the bill passed. It would also stall the IMF assistance program badly needed for managing the country’s precarious external balance of payment situation. But new taxes will add to the public discontent at a time when the second phase of the local bodies’ elections in KP and one in Punjab, the country’s biggest and most powerful province are due early this year.
While the discord within the PTI may not help it improve its performance in KP, the prospects for the party in the Punjab polls are even less favorable. It could face a complete route in the region considered stronghold of the opposition Pakistan Muslim League(N). A weak local party leadership and dismal performance of the provincial government over the past three years have diminished the party’s popular base. A divided house and the galloping cost of living could further impact the ruling party’s already shrinking political base.
Any setback in the Punjab local bodies’ elections could further weaken the ruling party’s position just 18 months away from the general elections. The outcome of the local bodies’ elections in the two provinces is likely to determine the future course of politics in the country and cast it shadows on the general elections due mid next year.
A divided house and the galloping cost of living could further impact the ruling party’s already shrinking political base.
Zahid Hussain
The reports of growing strains in the relations between the civil and military leadership have exacerbated the government’s worries. The support of the security establishment has provided the most important pivot on which the system hinged. Worsening governance and the differences over domestic and foreign policy issues has widened the gap between them. The row over the appointment of the ISI chief last year brought the discord to the surface.
That controversy may have been resolved but it has exposed the power imbalance inherent in the system. It’s now doubtful that the security establishment would continue to be involved in political management any more to bail out the government. It will add to the government’s worries.
Continuing political instability and the economic crisis remain the most serious problems for the country that is facing multiple internal and external security challenges. The changes in geopolitics with the exit of the American forces from Afghanistan and the return of Taliban rule in the war-battered country have presented the Pakistani government with its most serious foreign policy and security challenges in the coming year.
The looming economic collapse in Afghanistan and the subsequent worsening of the humanitarian crisis there will have a direct bearing on Pakistan. Most worrying are the security implications for the country. The militant sanctuaries across the border in Afghanistan remain a serious security threat to Pakistan. The Afghan Taliban’s reluctance to take action against the outlawed network after its refusal to lay down arms should be cause for serious concern.
There has been a marked increase in attacks on Pakistani security forces in recent months. The situation is likely to get worse in the coming year with the uncertain situation in Afghanistan. Moreover, violent faith-based extremism remains the biggest internal security challenge for the country. What happened in Sialkot last year demonstrates the radicalization of a society that condones violence in the name of religion.
It’s the impunity for rising faith-based violence that will keep producing tragedies like Sialkot.The government’s own policy of appeasement has encouraged the spread of extremism. It remains to be seen how the government deals with these enormous challenges faced by the country in the coming year.
- Zahid Hussain is an award-winning journalist and author. He is a former scholar at Woodrow Wilson Centre and a visiting fellow at Wolfson College, University of Cambridge, and at the Stimson Center in DC. He is author of Frontline Pakistan: The struggle with Militant Islam and The Scorpion’s tail: The relentless rise of Islamic militants in Pakistan. Frontline Pakistan was the book of the year (2007) by the WSJ. His latest book ‘No-Win War’ was published this year.
Twitter: @hidhussain
