The world must help Afghanistan make the right choices
https://arab.news/6k28q
The Taliban have managed their stunning return to power in Kabul not simply through military force, but rather active support from a patchwork of diverse power centers with sometimes conflicting interests, including tribal groupings and regional players, but most importantly, large sections of rural people and smaller but sizeable sections of the urban poor in Afghanistan.
These diverse set of stakeholders provided support not simply to see the imposition of a theocracy focused on draconian social injunctions, but rather to see peace prevail and a more equitable distribution of economic opportunities that provides opportunities to all Afghans. As the economist Atif Mian recently stated, although the average income in Afghanistan increased by 40 percent between 2007 to 2017, the share of population below the poverty line rose from 34 percent to 55 percent. In effect on average, most Afghan citizens became poorer in a period when trillions of dollars were supposed to have flowed into the country.
The iniquitous distribution of funds and alleged widespread sleaze among government officials contributed to the unpopularity of the Ghani regime. It might have also been one of the factors that resulted its inability to defend against the lightning takeover by the Taliban. The new dispensation has to reverse the declining trend in economic welfare, and deliver on good governance for any prospects of economic revival to meet the expectations of long-suffering people for a better future. To be able to do so, Afghanistan needs the support of its neighboring countries as well as the active engagement of the international community. This should serve as a strong incentive to avoid the excesses and human rights abuses of the earlier Taliban regime between 1996 and 2001.
It is encouraging to note that the Taliban leadership has pledged to respect human rights, albeit with some qualifications. It has sought to reassure Afghan civilians and the international community about the new government’s support for the rights of women and girls, media freedom, and protections for former government personnel. It has unequivocally stated that women are going to be allowed to work and study so long as the hijab is maintained. The leadership appears to be aware that women need to play an active role in society for it to succeed. It is now for the international community to assist the government in enabling conditions that it can fulfil the pledges both in letter and spirit. This is more likely to be achieved not by turning its back on the new dispensation when it most needs assistance, but through active engagement as well as monitoring its actions.
World leaders and international agencies should apply the powerful leverage of aid and finance not to try and deny the new government stability, but rather to help it make decisions that provide Afghans peace, prosperity and freedoms.
Javed Hassan
The Taliban government faces considerable challenges not only as a result of the previous regime’s poor governance but also their sudden departure. It will have to contend immediately with a liquidity crunch as the flow of funds from the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), the NATO-led military mission in Afghanistan, stops. More ominously, the United States has stated that it will try to deny access to billions of dollars belonging to the Afghan central bank reserves. The International Monetary Fund, following pressure from the Biden administration, has also stated it would block Afghanistan’s access to about $460 million in emergency reserves. The central bank reserves and international aid are essential funding sources for the bulk of the public spending.
These harsh measures, if implemented, are likely to put depreciation pressure on the domestic currency, the Afghani, and fuel inflation. In an economy already potentially facing stagnation, the burden of inflation will further penalize citizens. It is hoped that such a downturn does not force the Taliban to turn to coercive measures in order to maintain control. If it does so, it shall not only play into the hands of those arguing that its promises regarding human rights and media freedom were not sincere, but also deter much needed investments and support from the international community. On the other hand, the best prospect the Taliban have of maintaining the support that enabled their return to power would be to institute a free economy and as open a society as is practically possible within the framework of Sharia and their particular ideology.
The economic incentives for them to do so far outweigh those that should compel them toward oppressive actions. The power of homo economicus should never be underestimated. If it can persuade the Communist Party of China to institute one of the most trade-oriented economies in the world, it’s possible for the same rationale to compel the Taliban-led government to have a much more open society than its detractors are willing to give it credit for presently. World leaders and international agencies should apply the powerful leverage of aid and finance not to try and deny the new government stability, but rather to help it make decisions that provide Afghans peace, prosperity and freedoms.
- Javed Hassan is Chairman Economic Advisory Group (EAG). He’s an investment banker by training and has worked in senior executive positions both in the profit and non-profit sector internationally.
Twitter: @javedhassan
