The reunification of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan
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The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is nowhere near its original strength when it was founded in December 2007 as an alliance of several like-minded local militant groups, but a renewed effort last year to reunify breakaway factions has enabled it to register an increase in cross-border attacks from its sanctuaries in Afghanistan.
The United Nations Analytical and Monitoring Team in its February 3 report submitted to the UN Security Council noted that the heightened threat from the unified TTP had resulted in over “100 cross-border attacks within three months from July to October last year.”
The 27th report by the monitoring group tasked to track down terrorist groups mentioned the reunification of TTP splinter groups in Afghanistan as a point of concern as this enhanced the terrorist threat not only to Pakistan but the entire region.
Though the report said the TTP reportedly unified under Al-Qaeda’s moderation, the reunification of splinter groups, the TTP rejected this observation and claimed this happened due to an indigenous effort and wasn’t the result of support by a global militant group or country. It maintained that Pakistani militants reunited on their own to fight the state of Pakistan to change its system of government and avenge the atrocities committed against Pakhtun and Baloch tribes. The TTP claimed it wasn’t using the soil of any other country to wage its war on Pakistan.
The reunification of the militant groups began in August 2020 when Jamaatul Ahrar led by Abdul Wali aka Omar Khalid Khorasani and Hizbul Ahrar headed by Mukarram Khan rejoined the TTP and accepted Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud as their leader. The process to reunify was complex rather than being smooth as earlier such attempts had failed.
Though the UN report noted that 2,500 to 6,000 insurgents responsible for attacking Pakistani military and civilian targets are hiding in Afghanistan, the figure could be higher considering the fact that despite the fencing work being done by Pakistan since 2017, the long border could still be infiltrated.
Rahimullah Yousafzai
The Jamaatul Ahrar broke away from TTP in September 2014 as Khorasani refused to recognize TTP’s new ameer (head), Maulana Fazlullah after the assassination of his predecessor Hakimullah Mehsud in a US drone strike in North Waziristan. It had become a feared terrorist group due to its ruthlessness while operating initially from its base in Mohmand tribal district and then from the adjoining Nangarhar province in eastern Afghanistan.
Subsequently in November 2017, the Jamaatul Ahrar too suffered a split when one of its commanders, Mukarram Khan, formed a separate group, Hizbul Ahrar, after accusing Khorasani of indulging in un-Islamic acts, including killing Christians and other civilians and ordering kidnappings for ransom and extortions. Both factions were weakened by the splits and the loss of fighters and territory in Pakistan’s former tribal areas as a result of operations by Pakistani security forces.
Later, three more militant factions pledged allegiance to the TTP head Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud. The group led by Shehryar Mehsud had been part of the TTP, but had broken away due to disputes over the leadership. The Amjad Farooqi group and the one led by Usman Saifullah, formerly known as Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, also merged with the TTP.
There were reports that contacts had been established with the remaining splinter groups to join the TTP to once again make it an umbrella organization of all Pakistani militants. However, three groups that didn’t join the original TTP are unlikely to merge with it. They include the group led by late Mullah Nazir hailing from South Waziristan, the Hafiz Gul Bahadur faction from North Waziristan and the Lashkar-i-Islam that operated in the Khyber tribal district before shifting to Afghanistan and which recently lost its founder, Mangal Bagh, in a bomb explosion in Nangarhar. Except the Mullah Nazir group that has never fought Pakistani security forces and has focused more on Afghanistan, the other two groups moved across the Durand Line border to escape military action against them.
Though the UN report noted that 2,500 to 6,000 insurgents responsible for attacking Pakistani military and civilian targets are hiding in Afghanistan, the figure could be higher considering the fact that despite the fencing work being done by Pakistan since 2017, the long border could still be infiltrated.
The reunified TTP poses a bigger threat to Pakistan compared to recent years even though it suffered heavy losses due to military action by Pakistan’s armed forces and lost all its previous ameers, Baitullah Mehsud, Hakimullah Mehsud and Fazlullah, and several commanders in US drone strikes in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
For Pakistan, the acknowledgement in the UN report of its efforts against elements involved in terrorist activities has come as a sigh of relief as the international community has finally taken note of its complaint that Afghanistan-based terrorist groups posed a threat to it.
Islamabad termed it a ‘vindication’ of its long-standing position that hostile intelligence agencies, particularly India’s RAW, were helping the TTP and its affiliates to undertake cross-border attacks to de-stabilize Pakistan. Pakistan had handed over a dossier last year to the UN, US and certain other countries on the Indian sponsorship of TTP as well as Pakistani Baloch separatist groups. However, Pakistan’s expectations from the Afghan and US-led Nato forces to launch a dedicated effort to neutralize the threat emanating from Afghanistan are unlikely to be met due to the differences in their perception of the issue.
*Rahimullah Yusufzai is a senior political and security analyst in Pakistan. He was the first to interview Taliban founder Mullah Mohammad Omar and twice interviewed Osama Bin Laden in 1998. Twitter: @rahimyusufzai1
