Biden’s Afghanistan policy will upset a largely Taliban-centric peace process
https://arab.news/7mgc4
Both Donald Trump and Joe Biden have said they want to pull American troops out of Afghanistan. But their approaches differ, and that makes all the difference.
When Trump came into power in 2016, he cancelled the multilateral nuclear deal with Iran that was signed in his predecessors’ era.
Biden, the President-elect, is unlikely to take a step as brutally bold as cancelling the peace deal that was signed in Feb. 2020 between Taliban and the US. But unlike Trump, who formed pressure to withdraw troops hastily before his re-election, Biden will have the time and space to mend the deal his own way.
The peace deal is widely seen as Taliban-centric, and has left little room from the beginning for the Afghan government to be part of this agreement. The intra-Afghan dialogue came about as a result of this US-Taliban understanding.
Back home in the US, many average Americans labelled the agreement a deal with the devil, and alleged that Trump had compromised on the basic principles of what Americans stand for by agreeing to Taliban demands in his bid to be re-elected.
Biden may not be so comfortable with the current standoff in intra-Afghan talks. And he might not withdraw forces as impulsively from Afghanistan as Trump.
The Afghan government, which has often felt invisible during the entire peace process, might find this a great opportunity to talk their way through to Biden for its inclusion in the peace process-- something the Taliban are staunchly against.
Besides, when a new president takes oath, the first thing that they want to do is alter the policies of their predecessors.
The Afghan government, which has often felt invisible during the entire peace process, might find this a great opportunity to talk their way through to Biden for its inclusion in the peace process-- something the Taliban are staunchly against.
Naila Mahsud
While Trump had taken assurances from members of the Taliban that Afghan soil would not be used against America or its allies, Biden doesn’t seem to take the Taliban at face value. Like his presidential competitor, Biden too realizes that bloody wars have no end, but unlike Trump, he wants to keep at least a minimum of 1500-2000 American troops on Afghan soil to counter threats emanating from the Taliban or Daesh.
This troops’ presence will have upsetting consequences, because the Taliban will refuse to accept it.
There is another important aspect: the approach Trump and Biden have towards their allies, which in turn directly affects their foreign policy for Afghanistan.
In Trump’s administration, America’s relations with NATO have been marred with doubt with Trump undermining NATO’s role.
In early October, Trump tweeted he would bring his soldiers back home before Christmas. The announcement was welcomed and cheered on by the Taliban who have desperately waited for a US withdrawal from Afghanistan.
NATO however, has ruled out any possibility of a rushed withdrawal saying, : “When the time is right, when the conditions are met, we will leave together, not before.”
It is likely that Biden, unlike Trump, will work to re-establish America’s behavior towards NATO and take into consideration NATO’s plan of withdrawal from Afghanistan.
A part of the peace agreement states that once US troops withdraw, America will not interfere in the domestic politics of Afghanistan. Biden wishes to keep some soldiers in Afghanistan but also maintains that the military will not interfere with the political affairs of the country they are deployed in. How far that can be achieved, is questionable.
The peace agreement signed between Taliban and US already lacks key solutions to a peaceful post-US/ NATO Afghanistan.
Trump was planning to take troops out impulsively and hastily much to the Taliban’s liking. Their cosmetic agreement was only artificially tied together because Trump was in a hurry.
Now that Biden won’t be in a rush, his plan for withdrawal might upset the fragile peace-stature with the Taliban who are already bound to be frustrated because they were hoping for Trump to win.
– Naila Mahsud is a Pakistani political and International relations researcher, with a focus on regional politics and security issues.
Twitter: @MahsudNaila
