Impasse in intra-Afghan talks and why breakthrough isn’t going to be easy
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The lack of progress in the intra-Afghan negotiations that began more than three weeks ago in Doha, Qatar has become a cause of concern and prompted the US to offer mediation between the Afghan government and Taliban.
Ross L Wilson, the charge d’ affaires at the US embassy in Kabul, serving as the acting ambassador, recently made the offer. But there was no immediate response to it from either side.
On a Taliban initiative on Sept. 12, when intra-Afghan talks were launched, it was agreed that no foreigner would be involved in the negotiations. Subsequently, only 41 negotiators — 21 from the Taliban side and 20 representing the Afghan government and certain opposition parties — began talking to each other at a Doha hotel.
The peace talks are Afghan-led and owned, though the possibility of availing the help of mediators and facilitators hasn’t been ruled out in case of a stalemate or breakdown. The US, which signed a peace agreement with Taliban on Feb. 29, after 18-month-long negotiations, would be keen to break the deadlock in the talks as it still has high stakes in Afghanistan after having committed to withdraw all its forces by May 2021 in return for Taliban commitment to dissociate from global terrorist groups such as Al-Qaeda and disallow the use of Afghan territory for attacks against America and its allies.
Ambassador Wilson qualified his mediation offer by arguing that the US doesn’t want to impose any solution on others, but was ready to play the role if the two sides so desired. Other countries that could play the role of mediator are Norway, Qatar, China, Pakistan, etc. though the Afghan government and Taliban have to first agree that they need mediation and by whom. Afghan government negotiators were quoted as saying that the US, Norway and Pakistan are already involved in mediation.
Though the intra-Afghan negotiations have made little progress, this is hardly surprising considering the fact that the conflict has defied a solution for long and involves many stakeholders. Nobody expected quick results in these talks among Afghan adversaries backed by various state and non-state actors. It was generally felt that the talks for deciding Afghanistan’s future would be far more challenging than Taliban-US talks.
Certain developments in the region could indirectly contribute to the Afghan peace process. One was the visit of Abdullah Abdullah, the head of Afghanistan’s newly created High Council for National Reconciliation, to Pakistan after a gap of 12 years. He is also scheduled to visit India, Pakistan’s arch-rival and a close ally of the Afghan government, on Oct. 6 apparently to balance out the two visits.
Rahimullah Yusufzai
However, certain developments in the region could indirectly contribute to the Afghan peace process. One was the visit of Abdullah Abdullah, the head of Afghanistan’s newly created High Council for National Reconciliation, to Pakistan after a gap of 12 years.
President Ashraf Ghani, who in recent days was overshadowed by Abdullah who made trips to Qatar for the opening of intra-Afghan talks and then to Pakistan and now India, also visited Qatar to meet officials and Afghan government negotiators. However, no meeting took place with Taliban representatives, who in any case may not have agreed to meet him in case they were approached. Taliban spokesmen have been critical of Ghani and his two vice-presidents, Amrullah Saleh and Sarwar Danish, for making provocative statements against the group.
Abdullah, who in the past was a harsh critic of Pakistan for offering sanctuaries to Afghan Taliban, was unusually conciliatory and avoided raising contentious issues as he spent three days in Islamabad meeting top Pakistani officials and talking about working together towards a better future for both countries and the region. He appreciated Pakistan’s support for the peace efforts and the steps taken by it recently to improve bilateral relations by easing visa restrictions and cross-border movement for Afghan nationals. Abdullah pointed out that Pakistan had agreed to use its influence on the Taliban to accept a ceasefire as Islamabad and Kabul were on the same page in ensuring the success of the Doha talks.
Arguing that it has limited influence on the Taliban, Pakistan has nevertheless been claiming to have facilitated the Taliban-US talks and played a role in starting the intra-Afghan negotiations. Zalmay Khalilzad, the US special envoy for Afghanistan reconciliation, acknowledged that Pakistan has been helpful in the interaction with the Afghan leaders. It is generally believed that improved Pak-Afghan ties would contribute positively to the peace process.
Meanwhile, Taliban and Kabul negotiators have yet to finalize the rules of procedure, agenda and timelines during the negotiations. Some of the contentious issues, including Kabul’s demand for a ceasefire and Taliban insistence on having Shariah based on the Hanafi school of thought, have caused an impasse. While Taliban want the Doha agreement with the US to serve as the basis of intra-Afghan talks and a possible deal, Kabul has been arguing that the declaration signed by it with the US on Feb. 29, the day the Taliban-US agreement was made, and the decisions taken by the Afghan grand consultative assembly, the Loya Jirga, should provide the base for the peace process.
The disagreements are wide and, therefore, making a breakthrough isn’t going to be easy.
– Rahimullah Yusufzai is a senior political and security analyst in Pakistan. He was the first to interview Taliban founder Mullah Mohammad Omar and twice interviewed Osama Bin Laden in 1998.
Twitter: @rahimyusufzai1