Pakistan’s changing Middle East approach and the question of national interest

Pakistan has emerged as a frontline state in the backdrop of the conflict involving Iran, US and its Gulf partners. In its role as a mediator, the country has tried to bridge the gaps between the two sides and provide them a trusted channel of communication. This Pakistani political and diplomatic activism is an interesting shift and raises critical questions regarding the evolving nature of Pakistan’s national interest and regional ambitions. It has also initiated a debate about whether Pakistan actually has the wherewithal and necessary political will to continue its role as a regional mediator while also balancing its new security commitments toward regional partners and the country’s endemic economic issues.

Traditionally, Pakistan has been a relatively passive player in Middle Eastern conflicts. Its support for any party or cause has mainly been diplomatic and other than Pakistani air force involvement during the 1973 Ramadan war, the country’s military footprint has remained limited. 

Pakistan also maintained a neutral stance during the Iran-Iraq war even though the country’s relationship was not exactly cordial with the Saddam-ruled Iraq. Meanwhile, it was also not involved in any diplomatic initiative to end that war. Perhaps this was owing to a greater focus on the situation in Afghanistan and an understanding in the ruling quarters that Pakistan’s interests are better served by focusing on its own immediate neighborhood rather than playing a greater role in the politics of the broader Muslim world. 

In the case of Middle Eastern politics, Pakistan has always supported the central and leading role of Saudi Arabia and it can be argued that its bilateral ties with Saudi Arabia are perhaps the closest in the Muslim world. 

Pakistan has always supported the central and leading role of Saudi Arabia and it can be argued that its bilateral ties with Riyadh are the closest in the Muslim world. 

Umar Karim

In the last 10 years, the Middle Eastern political spectrum has changed considerably and the new regional order is projecting a three-way struggle for regional hegemony. The Israeli war in Gaza, the downfall of the Assad Regime in Syria, Israeli attacks on Iran and Qatar, and lastly the US-Iran war have all changed the fundamental political and security dynamics of the region. 

Against this backdrop, Pakistan has taken two notable steps. The first has been Pakistan’s formalization of its defense partnership with Saudi Arabia and a commitment toward Saudi national security. The second has been its entry as a mediator between Iran and the US, and also its attempts to strengthen its relationship with Iran. It is also arraying itself increasingly within the emerging quartet of status quo powers like Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkiye. However, these developments also have inherent challenges. 

Pakistan’s attempts to mediate between the US and Iran have shown that it retains relatively little leverage on both actors-- though its leadership is committing significant political capital to the process. 

This push on mediation has certainly affected Pakistan’s ties with some Gulf States which continue to remain financially important for the Pakistani economy and are still home to millions of Pakistani expats. If this new diplomatic role by Pakistan comes with significant economic costs, then there needs to be a debate on how it aligns with Pakistan’s national interest. Then there is also the question of whether Pakistan can balance its now formal commitments toward Saudi security and its partnership with Iran.

In essence, Pakistan’s decision makers need to have an objective and cold-blooded debate on what constitutes Pakistan’s national interest and why it is important for these quarters to think beyond their communal and group subjectivities and interests. 

There is a need to have a debate on Pakistan’s national interest vis-à-vis the Middle East that does not just touch upon and address political and security aspects, but also the country’s long-term economic needs and dependencies.