Key antiwar states rally for US-Iran talks

As the Gulf Cooperation Council states have become targets of Iran’s retaliatory attacks during the US and Israeli war on Iran, few countries in the region are in a position to foster open dialogue between Tehran and Washington to help bring the conflict to an end. In this context, Turkiye, Pakistan and, more recently, Egypt have emerged as a coalition of states pushing for talks, offering their capitals as possible venues for de-escalation negotiations.

On Thursday, US President Donald Trump yet again changed course and postponed the attacks against Iran’s power plants till April 07. He said that the ongoing talks between Tehran and Washington were going “very well.” 

As time began to run out, Islamabad and Ankara intensified their diplomatic efforts. At the time of writing, little is known about what they have achieved, what stage the process has reached and whether Iran has accepted any proposals. It is also unclear whether the sides will reach an agreement — widely seen as unlikely — or whether the conflict will continue to escalate.

Speaking on state TV on Wednesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said there were no negotiations taking place with the US. Araghchi also said Iran did not plan to open the Strait of Hormuz to ships from Western nations allied with America.

Should the war continue, it could have severe consequences for global economic stability and international security

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

Trump’s announcement was approached with cautious optimism, appearing as a strategy to buy time, gain advantage and stabilize market prices rather than reach a genuine peace, because the fundamental dynamics of the war remain intact. Iran still appears determined to internationalize the war, while the US and Israel continue to believe that the Iranian regime is not yet weak enough to collapse. Moreover, the conditions reportedly put forward by the US are seen as a long way from gaining Iranian approval.

Regional states’ efforts to seize the moment are still important. Should the war continue, it is unlikely to remain confined to the Gulf region and could have severe consequences for global economic stability and international security.

It is important to look at why Turkiye, Pakistan and Egypt have emerged as potential mediators. Last week, these three states and Saudi Arabia held discussions on joint security on the sidelines of a meeting of Arab and Muslim foreign ministers in Riyadh amid Iranian attacks on the Saudi capital. Turkiye and Pakistan reportedly pushed back against the use of harsh language in a diplomatic statement condemning Iran. Their preference for more measured wording regarding Iran’s attacks on the Gulf was likely intended to engineer a diplomatic advantage, positioning themselves as credible intermediaries between the US and Iran.

Turkiye and Pakistan both share land borders with Iran. While Pakistan remains one of the few neighboring countries not to have been directly targeted by Iranian missile or drone strikes, Turkiye has faced multiple incidents, with NATO air defenses intercepting at least three missiles that entered its airspace. However, Turkiye’s cautious reaction has prevented the incident from straining Turkish-Iranian relations at this critical time.

Moreover, on Wednesday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian issued a message in Turkish to express his gratitude to his “dear brother” President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for his resolute stand in condemning Israel.

Erdogan is a pragmatic leader who can read the regional zeitgeist carefully. While the US is putting pressure on the GCC states to join offensive operations against Iran, the Turkish president is trying hard to avoid this. In some ways, he is contradicting the US strategy because Ankara also has its own concerns related to Kurds, refugees and the economy that this war is triggering.

After attending the meeting in Riyadh, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan visited Qatar and the UAE as part of a broader regional tour. This tour was significant as it allowed him to convey GCC statements to Tehran. Turkiye is in a peculiar position because, even before the war, it aligned with the Gulf states in trying to convince Trump not to attack Iran and settle the issue through diplomacy.

Pakistan has emerged as a significant partner in the Gulf, particularly due to the defense pact it signed with Saudi Arabia last year

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

An Iranian official reportedly said on Wednesday that Pakistan had delivered a proposal from the US to Iran and either Pakistan or Turkiye could host discussions to de-escalate the war in the Gulf. However, Turkiye’s previous attempts to host talks were not preferred by Tehran, which is why many now view Islamabad as the more likely venue. Pakistan has emerged as a significant partner in the Gulf, particularly due to the defense pact it signed with Saudi Arabia last year.

Egypt is also pushing to host talks if the two sides decide to meet. It is seen as something of a latecomer to the coalition. Cairo, while aligning politically with the GCC states and maintaining cooperation with Washington, avoids direct confrontation with Tehran, which keeps it in a complex position. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi recently embarked on a Gulf tour to express Cairo’s solidarity.

While the GCC states have been supporting the Turkish, Pakistani and Egyptian efforts, they have refrained from getting involved. This can be understood from a Qatari statement, which stated that the war must end through diplomatic means but added that there have been no direct efforts by Doha to mediate between the parties.

The war on Iran has underscored each intermediary’s differing interests, as the conflict is undermining their core goals in terms of energy security, trade and connectivity. However, at the same time, it strengthens their ties with the GCC states. If they succeed in their efforts, their role will likely bear fruit in the future.

• Dr. Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East.

X: @SinemCngz