US-Iran talks and GCC priorities

US President Donald Trump announced on Monday that “good and productive” peace talks with Iran had taken place. Although the focus was on restoring maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz, Trump referred to “15 points of agreement” after those talks, saying “I think there’s a very good chance we’re going to end up in a deal.” As similar promises have been made before that turned out to be illusory, many officials and media commentators dismissed the comments as wishful thinking or a ploy to calm jittery markets, which did respond positively to his remarks.

These talks were important. Although American— and Israeli — attacks have continued unabated, the talks spared the region another round of escalation: On Saturday, Trump had given Tehran 48 hours to “reopen” the Strait of Hormuz or else the US would target Iran’s energy and power infrastructure, which was certain to elicit more attacks by Iran. Citing the progress in the talks, Trump suspended the earlier ultimatum, postponing for only five days his plan to destroy Iran’s energy installations.

Iran initially denied any talks taking place and state media claimed that Trump “retreated” from his deadline “out of fear of Iran’s response.” However, later on Monday, there were multiple reliable reports that Iranian officials had acknowledged receiving “points from the US through mediators and they are being reviewed.”

Despite Iran’s attempts to downplay the damage the attacks have inflicted, it appears that the destruction is considerable

Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg

The report named Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf as the principal interlocutor. Although not part of Iran’s formal negotiating team, he has been speaker of the parliament since 2020 and is considered close to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. A former military officer and mayor of Tehran from 2005 to 2017, he is one of the most powerful remaining Iranian leaders.

The existence of the talks was corroborated by other sources but such confusion in Tehran has been quite common since the start of this war, reflecting both different attitudes between hard-liners and moderates and the disruption of communication among these competing factions.

When Trump earlier threatened to “obliterate” the country’s energy infrastructure if it did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Monday evening, Iran’s hard-liners responded with attacks on Gulf Cooperation Council countries and Israel. They also warned that Iran would respond in kind with attacks on regional energy infrastructure and by laying sea mines across the “entire” Gulf, not solely the Strait of Hormuz.

The most urgent priority is to stop Iran’s attacks on GCC energy targets and allow the transit of oil and gas shipments

Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg

Despite Iran’s attempts to downplay the damage the US and Israeli attacks have inflicted on the country and its military capabilities, it appears that the destruction is considerable. The US alone has hit more than 9,000 Iranian targets, including over 140 Iranian naval vessels, and flown upward of 9,000 combat flights since the war began on Feb. 28, according to a statement issued on Monday by US Central Command.

Despite its downgraded military capacity, Tehran has continued its missile and drone attacks, albeit at a slower pace and with relatively limited damage so far. On Tuesday, hours after Trump announced progress in talks and the suspension of his earlier ultimatum, Iranian attacks continued. Even if the country’s conventional military capabilities were totally obliterated, it would still have capacity left for asymmetric warfare, including sabotage, terrorism and the ability to use short-range missiles. During the past few weeks, sleeper cells working for Iran have been busted in GCC countries. It can also instruct its regional proxies to launch attacks.

Trump said that the nuclear issue was at the top of the points of agreement in the talks, while media reports referred to securing the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s ballistic missile program and regional proxies as also being among the 15 points under discussion.

The GCC countries have much at stake in the reported talks and it is important that these negotiations contribute to the long-term resolution of all the important issues between Iran and the international community, including its closest neighbors, which have been the primary targets of its missile and drone attacks over the past weeks. They have also been affected by the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the reduction of their ability to export oil, gas, fertilizers and other petrochemicals. The region’s image as a magnet for investors and visitors has been damaged.

Iran’s destabilizing policies, including the use of armed proxies and religious militias, have consistently targeted GCC states since the revolution in 1979 and throughout the current conflict.

The most urgent priority is to stop Iran’s attacks on GCC energy targets and allow the transit of oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The disruption of energy supplies has wreaked havoc on the global economy and caused colossal losses for many countries that are not connected with the war. Threatening the flow of trade through this passageway is a clear violation of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.

Statements from Iran have been all over the place regarding the Strait of Hormuz, from taking credit for creating the disruptions to denying that it closed the passageway. In the confused state that Iran is currently experiencing, you have officials who express pride and satisfaction in the harm they have visited on their neighbors and on the international economy, while others deny responsibility and call for calm to be restored.

It is clear that Iran wants the US and Israeli attacks to stop, despite the bravado of some hard-liners, who seem to welcome the war as a way to consolidate their grip on power. Trump, on the other hand, has made it clear that he needs to see important concessions and not a mere return to negotiations before hostilities can cease.

It is encouraging that Trump said on Monday that there has been significant progress on many issues, but skepticism is not unwarranted considering the multiplicity of factions in Tehran. There is no shortage of potential spoilers, including Israeli and Iranian hard-liners. We have been disappointed before.

For GCC countries, the first priority is for Iran to stop its attacks and targeting of civilian infrastructure, including oil and gas installations. Second is for Iran to allow unimpeded passage through the Strait of Hormuz to alleviate the global energy crisis. The third priority is to engage in good faith in negotiations on all the other remaining issues, including Iran’s nuclear and missile programs and regional policies.

• Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg is the GCC assistant secretary-general for political affairs and negotiation. The views expressed here are personal and do not necessarily represent those of the GCC. X: @abuhamad1