A Gulf lesson in crisis management

For residents of Dubai, Feb. 28 was a normal day until the unfamiliar sounds of missile interceptions drowned out the background noise of speeding cars and construction activity. Those following the news at that very moment were perhaps the only ones who guessed what those sounds were. For the vast majority, however, it was a rude awakening. The country across the Gulf had suddenly begun hurling massive missiles and combat drones at key urban centers across the Arabian Peninsula in retaliation for a combined military assault by Israel and the US.

The initial booms were possibly mistaken by many residents for rockets crashing into nearby buildings; in reality, they were the sounds of ballistic missiles being neutralized by state-of-the-art interceptors. Citizens and expatriates alike remained safe because these systems were so precise as to unfailingly find their targets high in the stratosphere. This has largely been the story for Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar over the past few weeks. If there were ever a defining moment of clarity for the denizens of the Gulf, this is it.
With the US-Israeli campaign to destroy Iran’s missile infrastructure and military sites now in its fourth week, people here have become acutely aware of both the significant geopolitical risks and the structural advantages of the region. There are no scary sirens triggering panicked runs to bomb shelters. Instead, residents receive automated, localized alerts on their smartphones, informing them of threats and again when the “coast is clear.” The precision is such that if a ballistic or cruise missile’s trajectory poses no threat to a specific area or district, no alert is even sent, preventing unnecessary mass anxiety.
Underpinning this calm amid the tension is a master class in crisis management that should be taught in public-policy courses in the years to come. Governments across the region have maintained high levels of liquidity, ensuring that ATMs remain stocked and the financial system stays buoyant in spite of the market turbulence.
On the ground, the efficiency of civil defense has been nothing if not remarkable. Fires caused by falling shrapnel from successful interceptions are extinguished within minutes and the few injuries resulting from debris are handled with almost clinical speed. Furthermore, by quickly engaging with partners like Ukraine to integrate battle-tested anti-drone technologies, the Gulf states are expected to eventually close the asymmetric threat gap opened up by the Iranian regime and its proxies.

Critical to this stability has been the speed and transparency of official communication. By providing real-time updates and debunking misinformation within minutes, governments have effectively neutralized the rumor mills that usually thrive in conflict zones — and increasingly so in the age of politically motivated social influencers and artificial intelligence tools. This transparency has been instrumental in building and maintaining a sense of trust that keeps the social fabric intact in a region where non-citizens outnumber citizens in quite a few countries. 

Transparency has been instrumental in building and maintaining a sense of trust that keeps the social fabric intact.

Arnab Neil Sengupta

The physical evidence of this stability is everywhere. So far, there has not been a hint of a shortage: fresh food, cooking gas and electricity remain constant. Even flower shops are stocked with fresh imports from across the globe despite airspace being closed over many cities and the threats faced by ships using the Gulf. The sight of supermarkets brimming with dairy and other produce feels almost surreal during a conflict. Admittedly, many foreigners have temporarily relocated in response to embassy warnings, but the streets remain active. Delivery services, in particular, are busier than ever, with motorcycle riders crisscrossing cities day and night.
Reports in Western publications suggesting a “flight of capital” or a mass exodus of the wealthy seem either agenda-driven or detached from reality. However, a nagging worry persists: the fear that Washington might declare a unilateral ceasefire or strike a deal with the regime in Tehran without seeking ironclad security guarantees for its Gulf partners. President Donald Trump’s penchant for cavalier remarks — “a little excursion,” “winding down” and “the war is very complete, pretty much” — does little to inspire confidence in a long-term American commitment, which is vital for the restoration of stability. Despite four weeks of bombardment, Iran’s arsenal — and its network of proxies from Iraq to Yemen — remains a potent “known unknown,” to use the NASA insider jargon made famous by US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld in 2002 ahead of the invasion of Iraq.
Debates occasionally erupt on social media over whether on-air segments from cities like Dubai or Riyadh constitute reporting from a “war zone.” Technically, the region is in a state of war, though not by its own choosing. That said, had these governments not made timely and wise multibillion-dollar investments in strong air defenses, their energy hubs and skylines would indeed resemble a battlefield. The harrowing images of direct missile strikes on Dimona and Arad in Israel over the weekend are a stark reminder of what could have been.
One of the upsides of this crisis is that it has demolished the stereotype of the Gulf as a playground for the wealthy or a temporary stopover for expats. The past four weeks have been a testing time that has revealed a region of highly organized states capable of closing ranks in the face of a common enemy and shielding their people from the worst impulses of their neighbors. The hope is that, regardless of what happens to Iran, the Gulf will no longer be viewed as a destination for opportunity, but rather as a bastion of resilience and potential in an increasingly unpredictable world.

• Arnab Neil Sengupta is a senior editor at Arab News.
X: @arnabnsg