The geopolitical fallout of the war on Iran

The war on Iran, now well into its third week, is ripping through the region in ways that even US President Donald Trump has admitted come as a surprise: the unrelenting Iranian strikes on Gulf infrastructure, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and, so far, the durability of the Iranian regime itself. But the shock waves of the US-Israeli bombardment have resonated far beyond the battlefield, threatening alliances, jolting world markets and reshaping geopolitical realities.

Perhaps the most troubling aspect of this war of choice is the sheer weight of its uncertainties. The so-called excursion could extend for weeks, even months, and may end in stalemate. The objectives remain vague, even as Washington and Tel Aviv double down and appear to be settling in for a prolonged standoff.

One thing is already clear: this war is redrawing the geopolitical map in ways that will outlast the conflict itself. It is polarizing and divisive. Most Americans do not support it and even Trump’s ultraconservative base is expressing anger and disappointment at a leader they feel has betrayed their cause.

Gulf leaders will emerge determined to revisit the collective security arrangements they have relied on for decades

Osama Al-Sharif

Beyond domestic politics, Gulf leaders will emerge from this war determined to revisit the collective security arrangements they have relied on for decades. This, after all, was a war they were dragged into without consultation by their closest ally. When the dust settles, they will stand as the party that suffered the greatest collateral damage. Questions are already being raised about America’s long-standing commitment to defend the Gulf states and whether Trump’s hasty and ill-conceived campaign has done irreparable harm to that alliance.

Gulf capitals will quietly begin revisiting their historic dependence on American security guarantees — and will, at some point, reopen back-channel conversations about a new Gulf-Iran security architecture built on mutual deterrence and noninterference. Whatever happens inside Iran next, geography is immutable: Iran remains a neighbor the Gulf states will have to deal with long after this war ends.

Trump has hinted that the US has no vital interests in the Arabian Gulf, noting that it no longer imports oil from the region and is energy independent. In Washington, this war is increasingly seen as one waged for Israel and on its behalf. Not once have US officials acknowledged the enormous cost borne by Gulf partners as a result of the conflict.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which directly threatens the economic lifelines of Gulf states, has laid bare the limits of American commitment to its allies. Trump has called on partners, including NATO members, to help reopen the strategic waterway. So far, not a single nation has accepted the invitation. A crisis that the US and Israel created — despite warnings from senior American military commanders — now threatens to create a global recession. And Washington finds itself without a coalition to show for it.

Israel’s conduct has compounded the damage. Under the Abraham Accords, Israel positioned itself as a strategic partner to two Arab Gulf states. Now, however, it has revealed itself to be a strategic liability, dragging the region into escalation cycles that threaten Gulf stability and domestic legitimacy alike.

A crisis that the US and Israel created now threatens a global recession. And Washington finds itself without a coalition to show for it

Osama Al-Sharif

Already strained by Gaza, the accords now face an existential test. Netanyahu’s ambiguous references to a new Middle East “being shaped by Israel” have only deepened Arab anxieties about a security architecture in which they have no say over its objectives or limits. Arabs may harbor their own concerns about Iranian regional ambitions, but they are watching Israel’s expansionist agenda — now wrapped in extremist biblical interpretations of a “Greater Israel” — with mounting alarm.

The war has also exposed the absence of any meaningful collective Arab defense structure. The past two decades have reconfigured the region in ways that primarily benefited two parties: Israel and Iran. Now they are fighting each other and, in doing so, have set the region ablaze. The need for a pan-Arab mutual security framework has never been more urgent. Without one, the region will continue to absorb the fallout of clashing external agendas at its own expense.

The reverberations have also shaken NATO’s foundations. Trump insulted his European partners, then turned around and asked them to join a military operation he launched unilaterally. US strategic assets are being redeployed from Ukraine and South Asia to the Gulf — a shift that indirectly benefits both China and Russia, while undermining Washington’s existing commitments. The signal being sent to Ukraine’s backers and Taiwan’s defenders is not lost on anyone: American strategic bandwidth has its limits and those limits are being tested.

This war on Iran has not merely upended the Middle East. It has accelerated the fundamental restructuring of the post-Cold War international order — with consequences that no one in Washington appears to have fully reckoned with.

How it ends remains the defining question. Iran continues to strike both Israel and its Gulf neighbors. Washington is deploying thousands of Marines to the region and Trump has not ruled out a ground incursion. If he does not yield to mounting domestic pressure to declare victory and withdraw, the prospect of a protracted war grows — and that would spell disaster for the region and beyond.

Even a US pause offers no guarantees. Israel has vowed to use its aerial superiority to wage a low-intensity, open-ended campaign — in Lebanon already and potentially in Iran itself. Arab leaders must send an unambiguous message to Washington: this war must end and the terms of their relationship with America must be redefined. As things stand, there is no daylight between Israel and the US on the endgame. That is perhaps the most frightening reality of all.

• Osama Al-Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman. X: @plato010