A new shift for Europe and the transatlantic alliance

European politicians are today probably thinking along the lines of “be careful what you wish for — you just might get it.” It has been reported that the Pentagon wants US allies in Europe to take over much of NATO’s defense responsibilities on the Old Continent before the end of 2027. We can start by framing this alongside President Donald Trump’s peace proposal for Ukraine, which was rejected by European countries. There is hence a straightforward logic: if you do not want to support the US peace plan, then be ready to take responsibility for what is to come.

And so, it is quite amusing to hear European reactions to this declaration through media op-eds screaming that the US is abandoning Europe. This is a remake of 2018, when Trump asked the Europeans to spend more on their defense to hold up their side of the transatlantic alliance. They were all indignant and again screamed that the US was failing to honor its commitment to the alliance. Europeans must now face the consequences of their own actions. Trump will not let Europe have it both ways: relying on US defense while also dictating foreign policy.

I am also wondering what the growing voices claiming that the US has never let Europe build its defenses say today. They will probably start realizing how much the US has done for Europe, keeping it protected and at peace for several decades. And now they are most certainly screaming that the US is abandoning Europe. Go figure.

This new shift is a net positive for Europe and the transatlantic alliance. It is about time Europe started to focus on its own defense. Usually, it is an enemy that forces this. In the strange world we live in, it is our closest ally. Only the military is focused on how Russia’s defense industry has developed, while politicians are busy blaming Trump for everything. A strong Europe with greater agency and US support will stabilize its eastern front and open a new era with Moscow.

This shift is a net positive for Europe and NATO. It is about time Europe started to focus on its own defense

Khaled Abou Zahr

The US deal for peace in Ukraine is not perfect, but the situation on the ground dictates the outcome of any agreement. Europe pushed back on the US plan following a meeting in Geneva two weeks ago. A Der Spiegel report even stated that French President Emmanuel Macron warned the US could “betray” Ukraine in a leaked leaders’ call.

In short, European leaders rallied around Volodymyr Zelensky and sharply criticized Washington. This is a strategic mistake on several levels. First, it shows that the Western alliance is divided and this, according to their own narrative, encourages Moscow to look for greater gains in the negotiations. Second, their comments should be framed differently. Instead of opposing the plan and propping up Zelensky to stand up to the US proposal, they should share the points that could make the deal better.

The answer is clear. If Europeans want to oppose a peace deal, then they should step up to the plate and take charge of their own defense, or at least most of it. Are the Europeans capable of doing this? What are the biggest risks?

The reality is that despite the divide between Europe and the US, it is the divisions within Europe that pose the greatest risk. When it comes to defense, the important part is to beef up the continent’s military-industrial capacity so that it can produce at least as much as Russia. This can only be done if the Europeans mutualize more of their procurement and industrial processes. This will surely mean a loss of sovereignty and economic returns.

An end to the war in Ukraine would allow European nations to achieve this faster and in a better way

Khaled Abou Zahr

This does not translate well in terms of several major European defense projects. As an example, France and Germany face persistent tensions over military procurement, complicating these efforts. Major joint programs like the Future Combat Air System, including a new generation fighter jet, and the Main Ground Combat System, intended to replace the Leclerc and Leopard 2 tanks, have been delayed by disputes over leadership, workshare and national priorities. The devil is in the details.

The positive is that Europe has generally already started boosting its defense spending. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced in September that Germany would invest €35 billion ($40 billion) in space-related defense projects by 2030. Unfortunately, media reports suggest that Europe remains very far from NATO-level self-reliance.

Experts have outlined that to defend itself without the US, Europe would need 50 new combat brigades, totaling some 300,000 troops, 1,400 tanks, 2,000 infantry fighting vehicles and 700 artillery systems. To put this into perspective, this is more than the combined forces of France, Germany, Italy and the UK. Moreover, it would need stockpiles of at least 1 million 155 mm shells for 90 days of high-intensity combat. The extra defense spending needed to reach these levels is estimated to be about $250 billion annually, which would increase European military investment from about 2 percent of gross domestic product today to 3.5 percent.

This will certainly not happen in two years. Europe will be exposed in the case of a partial US withdrawal, as the reports suggest. Hence, building military capacity and enhancing defense production are urgent priorities. An end to the war in Ukraine would allow European nations to achieve this faster and in a better way.

Moreover, there needs to be a final decision on whether to go for a real mutualization of efforts or for each country to go ahead alone because the mix will probably not work. The US is the man in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, to quote Theodore Roosevelt, and it has triggered the countdown.

• Khaled Abou Zahr is the founder of SpaceQuest Ventures, a space-focused investment platform. He is CEO of EurabiaMedia and editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.