Pakistan-Afghanistan tensions: Diplomacy, not military action, offers a way out

Low on bullets but high on resolve, the ruling Afghan Taliban don’t want to look weak. Yesterday’s partner, the Afghan Taliban are now re-adjusting their position as a major player in the region, partially owing to the Pakistan establishment’s display of tough love.

When the group seized control of Kabul in August 2021, many in Pakistan celebrated their return as Pakistan’s strategic partner, since they had long been a protégé of the Pakistan establishment. But today Pakistan blames Kabul for harboring and supporting the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Pakistan blamed TTP for the recent deadly attack in Islamabad that killed dozens and wounded many.

Reverting a couple of days back, Islamabad and Kabul locked horns over the TTP issue with cross-border fighting, including an air strike carried out in Kabul and Qandahar. Pakistan says it “went after” TTP with these strikes. Many were killed on both sides. Soon after, both states announced a ceasefire and initiated rounds of talks held in Istanbul and Doha.

More military action could destabilize Afghanistan, and Islamabad may find an even more fragmented government in Kabul; making it almost impossible for them to fulfil demands.

Naila Mahsud

In a bizarre coincidence, the Indian capital, Delhi, was rocked by a car explosion that killed many, one day prior to the Islamabad attacks. PM Modi vowed to bring the ones involved to justice. He used words like “perpetrators,” “sponsors,” and “collaborators.” It is generally understood that these words are predominantly used by Delhi for Islamabad. Islamabad kept ahead of the curve and accused Afghanistan of collaborating with Delhi for the Islamabad attacks, as if to reproach a blame before it arrived.

Perhaps the perception of Afghanistan in Pakistan is what Pakistan’s perception is in India: breeding grounds for militancy. Perhaps this is why Pakistan bombs Afghanistan-- to put on display its efforts toward eradicating terrorism. But the truth is multifold, complex in nature, and a catch-22 for Islamabad. According to a 2023 United Nations report, there are more than 20 regional and international terror groups operating in Afghanistan, and the Taliban may not have the capacity to curb them all. Owing to the long-lasting history of militancy and war, the Taliban do not operate under one umbrella.

Even if the ruling Taliban agree with the demands of Pakistan, splinter factions may only submit to their preferred outlets of terror groups.

It is true that Pakistan has suffered innumerable loss of life due to terror attacks by the TTP recently, but it needs to re-evaluate its options.

India has recently adopted a more engaging strategy in Afghanistan, a departure from a soft-power policy, almost mimicking Pakistan’s influence on Kabul. The latter two have weathered many storms together, and old ties are hard to break.

Delhi’s efforts to match Islamabad’s level of influence on Kabul is an oversimplification of the intricate nature of the factors in play.

However, Islamabad need not be overweening. It should be highly cautious of carrying out any further un-collaborated airstrikes inside Afghanistan. More military action could destabilize Afghanistan and Islamabad may find an even more fragmented government in Kabul; making it almost impossible for them to fulfil demands.

Going by the recent series of fatal events and the rhetoric that follows, it is evident that at least two of the three states— Pakistan and India— are not shying away from the idea of yet another escalation to play to their local audiences in the least.

But you cannot exchange talks and fire simultaneously. Islamabad needs to sequence threats and engage in preventive diplomacy with Afghanistan, since the prospects of dialogue with Delhi in the current state are highly improbable.

- Naila Mahsud is a Pakistani political and International relations researcher, with a focus on regional politics and security issues. X: @MahsudNaila