PARIS: From carbon pollution to sea-level rise to global heating, the pace and level of key climate change indicators are all in uncharted territory, more than 60 top scientists warned Thursday.
Greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels and deforestation hit a new high in 2024 and averaged, over the last decade, a record 53.6 billion tons per year — that is 100,000 tons per minute — of CO2 or its equivalent in other gases, they reported in a peer-reviewed update.
Earth’s surface temperature last year breached 1.5 degrees Celsius for the first time, and the additional CO2 humanity can emit with a two-thirds chance of staying under that threshold long-term — our 1.5C “carbon budget” — will be exhausted in a couple of years, they calculated.
Investment in clean energy outpaced investment in oil, gas and coal last year two-to-one, but fossil fuels account for more than 80 percent of global energy consumption, and growth in renewables still lags behind new demand.
Included in the 2015 Paris climate treaty as an aspirational goal, the 1.5C limit has since been validated by science as necessary for avoiding a catastrophically climate-addled world.
The hard cap on warming to which nearly 200 nations agreed was “well below” two degrees, commonly interpreted to mean 1.7C to 1.8C.
“We are already in crunch time for these higher levels of warming,” co-author Joeri Rogelj, a professor of climate science and policy at Imperial College London, told journalists in a briefing.
“The next three or four decades is pretty much the timeline over which we expect a peak in warming to happen.”
No less alarming than record heat and carbon emissions is the gathering pace at which these and other climate indicators are shifting, according to the study, published in Earth System Science Data.
Human-induced warming increased over the last decade at a rate “unprecedented in the instrumental record,” and well above the 2010-2019 average registered in the UN’s most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, in 2021.
The new findings — led by the same scientists using essentially the same methods — are intended as an authoritative albeit unofficial update of the benchmark IPCC reports underpinning global climate diplomacy.
They should be taken as a reality check by policymakers, the authors suggested.
“I tend to be an optimistic person,” said lead author Piers Forster, head of the University of Leed’s Priestley Center for Climate Futures.
“But if you look at this year’s update, things are all moving in the wrong direction.”
The rate at which sea levels have shot up in recent years is also alarming, the scientists said.
After creeping up, on average, well under two millimeters per year from 1901 to 2018, global oceans have risen 4.3 mm annually since 2019.
An increase in the ocean watermark of 23 centimeters — the width of a letter-sized sheet of paper — over the last 125 years has been enough to imperil many small island states and hugely amplify the destructive power of storm surges worldwide.
An additional 20 centimeters of sea level rise by 2050 would cause one trillion dollars in flood damage annually in the world’s 136 largest coastal cities, earlier research has shown.
Another indicator underlying all the changes in the climate system is Earth’s so-called energy imbalance, the difference between the amount of solar energy entering the atmosphere and the smaller amount leaving it.
So far, 91 percent of human-caused warming has been absorbed by oceans, sparing life on land.
But the planet’s energy imbalance has nearly doubled in the last 20 years, and scientists do not know how long oceans will continue to massively soak up this excess heat.
Dire future climate impacts worse than what the world has already experienced are already baked in over the next decade or two.
But beyond that, the future is in our hands, the scientists made clear.
“We will rapidly reach a level of global warming of 1.5C, but what happens next depends on the choices which will be made,” said co-author and former IPCC co-chair Valerie Masson-Delmotte.
The Paris Agreement’s 1.5C target allows for the possibility of ratcheting down global temperatures below that threshold before century’s end.
Ahead of a critical year-end climate summit in Brazil, international cooperation has been weakened by the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.
President Donald Trump’s dismantling of domestic climate policies means the United States is likely to fall short on its emissions reduction targets, and could sap the resolve of other countries to deepen their own pledges, experts say.

WASHINGTON: The National Transportation Safety Board issued an urgent safety recommendation Wednesday to address the possibility of smoke entering the cockpit or cabin of Boeing 737 MAX airplanes equipped with CFM International LEAP-1B engines.
The NTSB also recommended evaluating the potential for the same issue with LEAP-1A and LEAP-1C engines, which are used on some Airbus A320neo variants and COMAC’s Chinese-made C919 jets.
The recommendation comes after two incidents involving Southwest Airlines Boeing 737 MAX jets that experienced bird strikes in 2023. The NTSB wants the Federal Aviation Administration to ensure that operators inform flight crews of airplanes equipped with the affected engines.
Southwest said it is reviewing the recommendations and that it has mitigation procedures currently in place. Southwest notified its flight crews about the effects of certain bird strikes following two events that occurred in 2023, reiterating the importance of following established safety procedures.
CFM, the world’s largest engine maker by units sold, is co-owned by GE Aerospace and Safran.
The NTSB said it was “critical to ensure that pilots who fly airplanes equipped with CFM International LEAP-1B engines are fully aware of the potential for smoke in the cockpit if the load reduction device is activated during a critical phase of flight (takeoff or landing).”
The FAA and Boeing both said they agreed with the NTSB recommendations, and the planemaker alerted operators that smoke could enter the flight deck following the activation of the Load Reduction Device (LRD) in the engines, as a result of a bird strike.
“We advised operators to evaluate their procedures and crew training to ensure they address this potential issue,” the FAA said. “When the engine manufacturer develops a permanent mitigation, we will require operators to implement it within an appropriate timeframe.”
Boeing said that CFM and Boeing “have been working on a software design update.” The NTSB wants the update to be required on all 737 MAX planes once completed.
GE, Airbus and COMAC did not immediately respond to requests for comment
The NTSB asked the European Union Aviation Safety Agency and the Civil Aviation Administration of China to determine if other variants of the CFM LEAP engine are also susceptible to smoke in the cabin or cockpit when an LRD activates. EASA did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
In November, the FAA said it would not require immediate action after convening a review board to consider concerns about Boeing 737 MAX engines after two bird strike incidents involving the CFM LEAP-1B.
The FAA had been considering recommendations for new takeoff procedures to close the airflow to one or both engines to address the potential impact of a bird strike and prevent smoke from entering the cockpit.
In 2024, the NTSB opened an investigation into the Southwest left engine bird strike and subsequent smoke in cockpit event that occurred near New Orleans in December 2023.
The other incident occurred in a Southwest March 2023 flight that had departed Havana and in which a bird strike led to smoke filling the passenger cabin.
In February 2024, Boeing published a bulletin to inform flight crews of potential flight deck and cabin effects associated with severe engine damage.