Quickest turnaround in history? Pakistan-Iran relations after record-setting episode
https://arab.news/vqtcj
Have Iran-Pakistan set a new record in global affairs?
An initial review of global relations, certainly in the 21st and even the 20th century, reveals that no two neighbors have hit rock bottom and then taken a complete turnaround toward sheer cordiality as have Pakistan and Iran this month.
It all began with the shocking, irrational and illegal missile attack by Iran on neighboring Pakistan, which took the relationship toward a potential war zone. Iran justified its attack, but after facing retaliation within 24 hours from Pakistan, showed its readiness to engage, even declaring publicly that Tehran would break all records of bilateral friendship with Pakistan.
The positive reversal process thus began.
Interestingly it was through a January 22 jointly issued press statement that Islamabad and Tehran announced this resumption of ties. The joint statement was clearly a step to signal the current ‘same-page’ bonhomie between the two neighbors. After returning to their respective posts in Tehran and Islamabad, the two ambassadors will prepare for the arrival of the Iranian Foreign minister in Islamabad. Although the Pakistani foreign minister was to visit Tehran after his Iranian counterpart’s August 2023 visit, in acknowledgement of Tehran’s blundering missile attack and in an act of redemption, the Iranian minister will again visit Islamabad.
On January 29 the two neighbors plan to take three agreed upon steps to put in place specific mechanisms to tackle the cross-border attacks by militant groups. Firstly, one military liaison officer each from Pakistan and Iran will be stationed in bordering Iranian and Pakistani towns of Taftan and in Turbat; two, a functioning hotline between top civilian officials and military commanders will be established and three, real time intelligence information related to cross-border attacks will regularly be shared. In the two capitals there is ample realization that joint intelligence-based operations targeting militants is long overdue.
Earlier efforts culminating in Iran and Pakistan exchanging intel on cross-border attacks went off track on January 17 when Iran’s shocking missile attack on Pakistani territory shook the bilateral relationship in unprecedented ways. The attack on Pakistani soil shortly after Iran had attacked Syria and Iraq, was seen as Tehran flexing its security muscle against neighboring states while actually seeking to confront the genocidal state of Israel.
In the two capitals, there is ample realization that joint intelligence-based operations targeting militants is long overdue.
Nasim Zehra
From the Pakistan-Iran relationship perspective, this record setting development has reinforced some issues. One, that while Pakistan considers its relationship with Iran as strategically an important one given the shared 900 km border, traditional trade, huge movement of people as well as interdependent and interlinked security, it will not tolerate any Iranian violation of its territory or airspace any longer. Two, that Pakistan has demonstrable political, diplomatic, and military capacity to protect its sovereignty even if it requires undertaking military strikes and will not hesitate to take necessary steps. As demonstrated on January 18, Pakistan’s domestic problems, whether economic or political, will not keep it from conveying its deterrence capability to friends and foes alike.
Meanwhile in Pakistan, as elsewhere, this mind-boggling ‘near-war turned record-breaking friendship’ episode has generated many theories. Some experienced in diplomacy and security matters insist this missile firing was jointly stage-managed by Pakistan and Iran to stave off external military and diplomatic pressure on Iran and Pakistan respectively. This seems far-fetched given that Pakistan-Iran relations would have had to be completely trusting, in-tune and calibrated to plan and pull off this potentially destructive act.
Iran’s mind-boggling attack appeared more a case of hyped-up dysfunctionality given Iran’s internal power groupings. It appears that the orders for the missile attack on January 17 came from Iran’s powerful and occasionally Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IGRC). It was also likely responsible for the missile attacks on Iraq and Syria shortly before attacking Pakistan. The meeting between Pakistan’s caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar and Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos only hours before Iran’s attack, had likely taken the Iran foreign ministry by surprise.
Interestingly it was during former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s 2019 Iran trip in which the DG ISI, now army chief General Asim Munir, accompanied the PM and candid dialogue on cross-border militancy led to a policy breakthrough. The two leaders agreed on setting up mechanisms to deal with the chronic menace. The April meeting was followed by exchange visits between representatives of intel agencies. However, clearly the matter was not adequately tackled and border-base monitoring mechanisms have yet to become fully functional. The continuity factor from the 2019 breakthrough initiative to now remains Pakistan’s powerful army chief.
Moving forward, there are now great expectations from the January 29 Iranian foreign minister’s Pakistan visit.
- Nasim Zehra is an author, analyst and national security expert.
