The US-China rivalry demands astute foreign policy from Pakistan
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The US is taking several policy measures to thwart the rise of China as an economic, political and strategic power that does not threaten its global dominance in the coming decades. Most critical among these is to deny access to cutting edge technologies and rare materials that could strengthen China’s defense capabilities and economic strength. Besides, it aims along with its allies, to curtail trade and commercial relations with it. In this it has tried to take Britain, European and Asia Pacific countries along.
It is however not that easy to shift the economic direction away from China as the mutual trade between them is significant and there is no country or group of countries that can be a substitute in the near future. Interestingly, US-China trade set a new record in 2022, despite their political rivalry and strained bilateral relations. It is apparent that business and commercial interests resulted in high demand from both the business community and consumers. With this level of mutual cooperation and trade, decoupling is a difficult proposition and unlikely to materialize in the near future.
However, by building facilities within the US over the next few years, changing direction would be possible. Similar, interdependent trade and commercial relations between the EU and China make it difficult for changing direction and reducing mutual trade. According to 2022 statistics, China was the third largest partner for the EU exports of goods, nearing 9 percent and its imports of goods were the highest around 21 percent.
Strong economic and trade links dampen political rivalry and contribute toward a more peaceful global environment.
While it is true that Pakistan is not as important for the US today as it was in the past, Washington continues to have interests in the region where Pakistan plays a significant role.
Talat Masood
For Pakistan, strong political, economic and strategic ties with China form the core of its foreign policy. China is also a major source of defense hardware and software and has assisted in indigenous development and production. The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a 3000 km infrastructure network project undertaken in Pakistan and has significantly contributed in addressing chronic power shortages in particular. CPEC has also reduced the passage for China’s energy imports from the Middle East. And the deep-water port Gwadar in the Arabian Sea is a shortcut for boosting trade between China and Europe. However, its true potential will take time to materialize.
Clearly, close ties between China and Pakistan have leveraged both countries by opening new economic opportunities and enhancing their strategic clout. Strong relations with China do not compel Pakistan from developing good relations with the US.
For sustainable growth and long-term economic stability, Pakistan will have to continue to invest in education, health and other infrastructure projects in which the US and Western countries could be of great value. The US is the most preferred destination for advanced academic pursuits particularly in science and technology. In any case, it would be unwise not to take advantage of a mutually beneficial relationship. Countries on the wrong side of major powers or by taking sides in their pursuit for supremacy have suffered. This has been Pakistan’s experience as well and lessons should be drawn from it.
While it is true that Pakistan is not as important for the US today as it was in the past, Washington continues to have interests in the region where Pakistan plays a significant role.
The US still wouldn’t want Pakistan to heavily lean on China and as a part of this policy it has lately increased bilateral engagement. Moreover, it expects India to focus primarily on China’s rise but economic considerations and India-Pakistan hostility diverts attention from this strategic goal.
The US and Pakistan’s interests converge in having a stable and peaceful Afghanistan. For China too, it is equally important that Afghanistan ensures that its territory is not used by hostile groups. Moreover, China is openly engaging and assisting Afghanistan. It realizes that completely isolating it could have repercussions for neighboring countries.
For Pakistan, balancing relations between the US and China, and ensuring that leaning on one side heavily does not lose the trust of the other, is an intricate task. Presently, there is greater convergence of national interests and goals between China and Pakistan. But it is also in the larger interests of Pakistan to maintain good relations with Washington.
Pakistan’s relevance to the US seems to be increasing now, as Chinese power expands in the region. The US is closely monitoring how Chinese projects are influencing the country. And for its part, Pakistan, while giving due weightage to Chinese interests, must ensure that its strategic and economic interests are not compromised by leaning too heavily on Beijing.
- Talat Masood is a retired Lieutenant General from Pakistan Army and an eminent scholar on national security and political issues.
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