Imran Khan’s detention will work to his benefit
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The leader of the country’s biggest opposition party Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) Imran Khan was taken into custody on Tuesday from Islamabad High Court in a corruption case registered against him by the National Accountability Bureau. It is alleged that a loss of billions of rupees was caused to the national treasury because of a land deal Khan struck with a business tycoon named Malik Riaz.
The arrest caused immediate and widespread indignation, leading to charged protests around the country. The reaction was swift as workers came out in many cities to protest, demanding his immediate release. Violence, the storming of military residences and clashes with police have occurred in many cities. The Chief Justice of the Islamabad High Court took strong exception to the arrest of the PTI chief from the court premises. The court heard arguments and NAB has received an eight-day physical remand of Khan.
The arrest of Khan has long been anticipated. His vitriolic attacks on his opponents, his scathing criticism of sitting army generals, his unending accusations of corruption against rivals-- but sustaining the arrest of a political leader with such a massive following in the face of public agitation, strikes, confrontations with the police and disruption of normal life is hard for a government with little merit to its credit.
What the government should be worried about is that this detention will further boost Imran Khan’s credentials and popularity. There’s nothing like a bit of political victimisation to charge an already angry and excitable mob.
Rustam Shah
The stage is set for a resurgent Khan because of the growing discontent and frustration among Pakistanis due to high inflation, poverty, unemployment and the ever rising cost of living affecting millions of poor people. What the government should be worried about is that this detention will further boost Imran Khan’s credentials and popularity. There’s nothing like a bit of political victimisation to charge an already angry and excitable mob.
Now, the state will have to strategise on next steps very carefully. If Khan is released too soon, it’ll be a political bombshell for the government to control his bravado, as he presents himself and his supporters as the ones who overcame all opposition and resistance by state authorities. He will not let go of the spontaneous eruption of mass rallies all over the country. It will be the defining moment, and there will remain little doubt that he will sweep the polls whenever the election is held. Khan is currently riding the huge crest of a wave of popular support, and his arrest has done the government absolutely no favors.
On the other hand, as Khan gets elevated in the people’s imaginations to a higher moral and hero status with each passing hour of his detention, the government has to cope and deliver on the very real miseries of high inflation, rising costs of living, low exports, high unemployment, i.e. that morbid, thankless business of actually having to lead a flailing country out of an unprecedented economic mess.
The situation is now more ripe than ever for PTI to capitalize on the many grievances of the people. Added to this grim political landscape is the role of Pakistan’s powerful military establishment. Whether and to what extent it will leverage its influence will be perhaps the most important factor in assessing the likely outcome of the current imbroglio.
– Rustam Shah Mohmand is a specialist of Afghanistan and Central Asian Affairs. He has served as Pakistan’s ambassador to Afghanistan and also held position of Chief Commissioner Refugees for a decade.
