Why now to Goa?
https://arab.news/5fssg
India, as a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), is obliged to invite Pakistan to the Council of Foreign Ministers’ meeting it is hosting in Goa and so it did. An invite was sent out to Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari.
Pakistan's acceptance of the Indian invite however begs an important question. Why, after a gap of 12 years, has Pakistan decided to send Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto to India given its 2019 decision to not engage with India until it reverses its August 2019 steps to dismantle the State of Jammu and Kashmir?
After a discussion among all foreign and security policy stakeholders of the pros and cons of the FM attending the meeting virtually or personally, it was decided he would go personally, primarily because Pakistan did not want to convey that Islamabad would allow bilateral differences with India to overshadow SCO objectives and undermine its commitment to the SCO.
Pakistan understands through the SAARC experience that bilateral problems, if allowed to overshadow multilateral organizations, can render them impotent. SAARC now stands as all but a dormant organization ever since India’s 2016 refusal to participate, and its ‘advice’ to several others not to participate in the summit that Pakistan was to host.
Pakistan attaches special strategic significance to the SCO. It views SCO as an emerging global organization within a geo-strategic context where multiple US-led multilateral organizations are working to tilt the balance of power in favor of India. SCO is a potential counter to these organizations. Also with Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Iran initiated into the SCO dialogue partners, it has spread across the Middle East, Eurasia, Central, South and South East Asia.
Pakistan, often facing a two-front situation on its borders, sees the SCO as an organization whose membership can have a multiplier effect on Pakistan's security. It also adheres to the SCO charter, which is committed to peace and cooperation among member states, to fighting terrorism and resolving disputes through peaceful means. As an organization that is organically expanding and including states with geographical connectivity, Pakistan recognizes its potential as one proactively promoting connectivity and co-dependance within the context of security and trade.
Pakistan understands through the SAARC experience that bilateral problems, if allowed to overshadow multilateral organizations, can render them impotent.
Nasim Zehra
Equally, Pakistan views SCO‘s emphasis on fighting terrorism collectively within the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) framework as one that will promote transparency and to some degree accountability in tackling a threat that Pakistan is repeatedly confronted with. With terrorism increasingly the main factor that actively undermines the environment required for regional cooperation, SCO member countries are obliged to work collectively to counter terrorism. It is the RATS architecture which functions jointly to counter terrorism. Interestingly, Pakistan and Indian contingents jointly participate in counter-terrorism exercises conducted by RATS.
Pakistan views the regional and indeed continental cooperation that the SCO charter is committed to promoting as critical to human progress and prosperity generally, and to its own stability and security specifically.
In Goa, the Pakistani foreign minister will also hold several bilateral meetings with his counterparts including the Chinese, Russian and Central Asian foreign ministers.
As for the bilateral significance of the Goa visit within the Pakistan-India context, the Bhutto visit which does not seek any bilateral engagement with the host country India, will reinforce Pakistan's post-August 2019 policy against bilateral engagement until India reviews and reverses it steps towards Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan never asked for a bilateral meeting with Bhutto’s Indian counterpart. Hence Bhutto’s arrival in Goa and not engaging his hosts through a formal bilateral meeting will be clear messaging.
Within the SCO meeting orbit, Bhutto-Jaishakar will of course meet, exchange pleasantries, share space in meetings and banquets, meals, walks etc but nothing more. Pakistan has not asked for a bilateral meeting. India floated the ‘news’ that Pakistan allegedly called for a meeting and was refused. This is untrue.
Pakistan will have to remain committed to its own position regarding India which is that India violated international law, purposefully violated UN resolutions in August 2019 and basically broke up the state of Jammu and Kashmir, while engaging in a colonial settler project to end the numerical superiority of Kashmiris in India-administered Jammu and Kashmir. In subsequent elections, Kashmiris will be dealt out of their rightful political representation.
Pakistan’s demands are the same as they ever were: Revoke India’s August 5, 2019 steps and restore, for starters, Jammu & Kashmir’s special status.
While Bhutto will not be engaged in bilateral talks with India, within the context of Pakistan's commitment to regional cooperation and regional security, he will likely identify factors including disputes that prevent regional cooperation. Remaining within the SCO framework and charter, Pakistan's foreign minister will highlight unresolved issues including Kashmir, violation of UNSC resolutions, undermining of international law, and the use of state terrorism and cross-border terrorism in the region.
Clearly, dialogue between Pakistan and India is crucial for peace and connectivity among SCO members within the region, and realistically speaking it can be initiated only through bilateral, not multilateral initiatives.
– Nasim Zehra is an author, analyst and national security expert.
Twitter: @NasimZehra
