Why has Al-Qaeda still not appointed a new leader?
https://arab.news/2r259
Leadership is central to militant groups and forms the core part of their decision-making process. Top leaders not only determine the strategic directions of their respective groups, but the nature and scope of their activities as well, operationally and ideologically. Some leaders are overambitious and aggressive, while others are defensive and status-quo oriented. Hence, the backgrounds, dispositions and experiences of militant leaders at the time of their appointments offer important insights about the likely future trajectories of their respective groups.
After the killing or demise of a militant leader, the succession process, also offers key indicators of a group’s status. If the succession is smooth and frictionless, the group is likely to be coherent and intact. On the contrary, if the succession sparks leadership disputes and factional disagreements, the group is perhaps struggling to maintain its organizational cohesion.
Al-Qaeda, which has been reduced to a former shadow of itself in Afghanistan, has neither officially acknowledged Dr. Ayman Al-Zawahiri’ s killing, nor has it appointed his successor, leaving the room open for speculations and rumor mongering. The inexplicable delay in announcing Al-Zawahiri’s successor raises critical questions about Al-Qaeda’s status.
Despite the US withdrawal, al-Qaeda is struggling to find safe havens under the Taliban umbrella in Afghanistan. It remains to be seen if al-Qaeda’s new leader chooses Afghanistan to be his residence or moves elsewhere. However, his choices will be limited.
Abdul Basit Khan
Apparently, three factors explain the delay in appointing the new Al-Qaeda leader.
First is, as discussed, Al-Qaeda has not yet officially acknowledged Al-Zawahiri’s killing, notwithstanding that some Al-Qaeda franchises in their propaganda publications have started using the postfix Rahimullah or ‘May God have mercy on him’ with his name. Therefore, appointing a new leader without acknowledging the incumbent leaders’ death seems illogical. Al-Qaeda might be doing this on the Taliban’s prodding to avoid creating any diplomatic embarrassment for the latter. Under the Doha Agreement 2020, the Taliban have agreed not to shelter foreign terrorist leaders or allow Afghan soil to be used for terrorist attacks against the US and its allies. It bears mention that the Taliban have denied Al-Zawahiri’s killing in a US drone strike in Kabul in July 2022. Al-Qaeda seems to have taken a leaf out of the Taliban’s playbook who hid their founding leader Mullah Muhammad Omar’s death in 2013 for three years and his deputy Akhtar Muhammad Mansoor ran the insurgent movement as an acting leader.
It is also important to mention that Al-Qaeda bids its time in acknowledging important developments and in announcing critical decisions. For instance, Al-Qaeda officially acknowledged perpetrating the September 2001 attacks in the US in 2004. Likewise, the Somalian militant group Al-Shabab was courted by Al-Qaeda in 2009 when the former pledged allegiance to Osama bin Laden. However, the group officially acknowledged it as an affiliate only in 2012. The decision to acknowledge Al-Shabab’s inclusion in Al-Qaeda’s structure as a franchise was delayed, fearing a harsher counterterrorism reaction against the former. However, in 2012, following bin Laden’s killing, Al-Qaeda officially publicized Al-Shabab’s allegiance to showcase its global expansion and strength.
Second, it is also possible that Al-Qaeda is delaying the announcement keeping in view imminent life threats to the potential new leader. In the last four years, several Al-Qaeda leaders have been killed in Iran and Afghanistan. For instance, Al-Qaeda in the Indian subcontinent chief Asim Umar was killed in Afghanistan in October 2019. Likewise, bin Laden’s son and Al-Qaeda’s future leader Hamza bin Laden was neutralized in an air strike in Afghanistan in August 2019. Similarly, Al-Qaeda’s number two, Abu Muhammad Al-Masri, was eliminated in Iran by Israel’s secret service. The most likely Al-Zawahiri successor Saif Al-Adel is believed to be living in Iran. Probably, he is not leaving Iran due to imminent life threats. Following Al-Zawahiri’s killing, Al-Qaeda does not find Taliban-ruled Afghanistan safe for its leaders. So, the transnational militant group is bidding its time and intentionally not announcing a new leader until it finds sanctuary which is safe for its leaders.
Third, though Al-Qaeda is a disciplined militant group with entrenched bureaucratic structures, it seems the group does not have a clearly defined succession plan in place. The leadership transition from bin Laden after his killing in May 2011 was smooth and swift. However, at the same time, since its inception in 1988, Al-Qaeda only had two leaders. So, Al-Qaeda, unlike other militant groups, has not gone through leadership transitions that frequently. So, per one view of terrorism scholars, the delay in announcing Al-Zawahiri’s successor could be due to a leadership crisis or disagreements over who will be his successor. Terrorism experts have observed that leadership successions and transitions in Daesh, which has lost more leaders as compared to Al-Qaeda, have been swifter and more clinical. For instance, within days of its third leader Abu Hassan Al-Qurayshi’s killing, Daesh’s affiliates in different parts of the world pledged allegiance to the new leader.
Irrespective of who becomes Al-Zawahiri’s successor and when, the delay in the process points to several weaknesses and gaps in the group. For instance, Al-Qaeda’s leaders are facing imminent life threats which are hindering their movements and communication with the group’s rank-and-file. Also, despite the US withdrawal, Al-Qaeda is struggling to find safe havens under the Taliban umbrella in Afghanistan. It remains to be seen if Al-Qaeda’s new leader chooses Afghanistan to be his residence or moves elsewhere. However, his choices will be limited. The recent killings of Daesh’s leaders have shown how hostile the Middle East has become for the leaders of transnational militant groups.
Finally, if Al-Qaeda is not acknowledging Al-Zawahiri’s killing and delaying the appointment of his successor to oblige the Taliban regime, it shows how weak the group is at this juncture. At its peak, in the late-1990’s, Al-Qaeda literally bankrolled the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. However, in 2023, Al-Qaeda is at the Taliban’s mercy even for its internal and critical decision-making.
- The author is a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International. Studies, Singapore. Twitter @basitresearcher.
