After CM election, Pakistan’s future holds more instability and confrontation 

Pakistan’s politics is destined to face a long spell of uncertainty and instability because of the situation in its most populous province Punjab, after the Friday run-off election for chief minister. Incumbent chief minister Hamza Shehbaz, the son of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, has won the seat (and even been administered oath) through a controversial exercise. He had received 179 votes against his rival Parvez Elahi’s 186 votes. 

Deputy speaker Mazari who was presiding over the crucial session, rejected 10 votes for Elahi cast by PML-Q members. This came as PML-Q President Chaudhry Shujaat was persuaded by former president Asif Zardari at the eleventh hour to support Hamza and not Elahi, a candidate backed by Imran Khan. The PML-Q chief had sent a letter to the Punjab Assembly deputy speaker, which was not known to the party legislators. 

This shock development changed the entire political situation, making a mockery of the ‘democratic’ system. As a result, the appreciation the PML-N government had sought for holding free and fair elections on July 17 stood compromised. 

Now, Parvez Elahi has challenged the outcome of the chief minister’s election in the Supreme Court, but it’s hard to say how long the apex court will take to decide the matter. 

Whatever the outcome, the system will remain dysfunctional and paralyzed for a long time to come. Whether the mantle of chief minister remains with Hamza or goes to Elahi--  the speaker of the 371-member provincial legislature-- there is little possibility of any improvement in the political situation. 

Protests on the streets by either party can be anticipated in the foreseeable future. Peace and normalcy will remain a dream - even at a time when the economy is sinking and the rupee is losing its value every day. Unfortunately, it appears power-hungry politicians have no time to discuss these existential matters, or to find solutions to the economic slide. 

The situation in the foreseeable future will also remain tense because of the huge gap between the political stands of the PTI and the Pakistan Democratic Movement (the ruling coalition). 

The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, which defeated the PML-N and its allies in the July 17 by-elections on 20 seats of the Punjab Assembly, sticks to its demand for immediate fresh elections in the country to steer it out of its present crisis. However, the parties in the ruling coalition are opposing the call as fresh balloting in the current situation will mean surrendering power to the cricketer-turned-politician, whose popularity seems to be at the peak at present. 

 Whatever the Supreme Court decides and no matter who holds the mantle of the Punjab chief minister, it has now become clear that the political system in Pakistan will remain dysfunctional and paralysed for a long time.

Ashraf Mumtaz

The outcome of the by-polls destroyed the myth that Punjab belongs to the PML-N at all costs. 

The ruling coalition is also against fresh elections because it knows that the uncontrolled inflation caused by remedial measures it had taken to ‘clear the landmines’ laid by the PTI government during its tenure, will provide the electorate reasons to vent their anger by voting against them. 

The appointment of the new army chief is also an important factor.  Gen. Bajwa’s tenure is due to expire in November and the PML-N leadership will not like to lose the opportunity of bringing in a chief of its own choice. 

Another reason is the urgency of political alliances, and alignments required at the time of polls. It is unthinkable that the present coalition of about a dozen parties will stay united against the PTI even in elections. Making seat adjustments with so many parties will be a huge task. Likewise, it will be very difficult to satisfy all constituents with their role after the polls. 

Some of the PDM’s components may like to choose their new allies at the time of elections to meet their interests. 

Then, there will be a clash of interests between various PDM parties. For example, PPP leader Asif Ali Zardari said recently that he would like to see his son – Bilawal – as the next prime minister.  This is despite the fact that the PPP has almost been banished from provinces other than Sindh. In the July 17  by-elections in Punjab, the PPP was just a silent spectator and it did not put up even a single candidate. Parties like the PML-N will not like to surrender the position of the country’s chief executive to the PPP in any case in the presence of charismatic and firebrand Maryam Nawaz, Shehbaz Sharif and Hamza. 

Fresh elections don’t suit the country’s interests as any party defeated in the process will not accept the results. The PTI has already expressed a lack of trust in the incumbent chief election commissioner (who happens to be the son-in-law of a former principal secretary to ex-prime minister Nawaz Sharif).  For the time being, the constitutional process for the selection of a new poll body chief has not been started and it will require a long time to evolve a consensus. 

There are also reports that the Chief Election Commissioner is thinking of taking action against the PTI leadership because of their continuous attacks on the poll body chief.  Such a step will certainly stoke political tensions and provide the PTI with an opportunity to bracket the CEC with the PML-, further eroding the body’s neutrality. 

All this leads to one conclusion:  There will be no smooth sailing in Pakistan in the foreseeable future. 

- The writer is a senior and veteran journalist with a career spanning 40 years with major national and international newspapers.