Fitch cuts view on global sovereign debt over rise in borrowing costs

While commodity exporters will benefit from higher prices, those who have to import the bulk of their energy or food will suffer. (Reuters)
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Updated 01 July 2022
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Fitch cuts view on global sovereign debt over rise in borrowing costs

LONDON: Credit rating agency Fitch downgraded its view on sovereign debt on Thursday on concerns about the rise in global borrowing costs and the potential for a flurry of new defaults.

Fitch, which monitors over 100 countries, said the Ukraine-Russia war was stoking problems such as higher inflation, trade disruptions and weaker economies which are all now hurting sovereign credit conditions.

“Rising interest rates are increasing government debt-servicing costs,” Fitch’s Global Head of Sovereigns, James McCormack, said, cutting the firm’s view on the sovereign sector to “neutral” from “improving.”

“Most exposed are emerging market (EM) sovereigns, but some highly indebted developed markets are at risk as well, including in the eurozone.” The number of countries seeing their credit ratings cut has begun to rise again this year as the pressures have built.

Most of the governments Fitch covers have either brought in subsidies or cut tax cuts to try to cushion the impact of surging inflation. But that carries costs.

“While modest fiscal deteriorations can be absorbed by the positive effects inflation has on government debt dynamics, such effects depend on the retention of low interest rates, which are now less certain,” McCormack said.

While commodity exporters will benefit from higher prices, those who have to import the bulk of their energy or food will suffer.

Gross external funding needs will be highest this year in both nominal terms and relative to foreign exchange reserves for EM sovereigns that are net importers of commodities, McCormack added.

“They now face tighter global funding conditions, and with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, it is likely there will be additional defaults.”

The list of countries either in default or whose financial market bond yields suggest they will be currently stands at a record 17.

Those 17 are Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Zambia, Lebanon, Tunisia, Ghana, Ethiopia, Ukraine, Tajikistan, El Salvador, Suriname, Ecuador, Belize, Argentina, Russia, Belarus and Venezuela.


Saudi investment pipeline active as reforms advance, says Pakistan minister

Updated 7 sec ago
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Saudi investment pipeline active as reforms advance, says Pakistan minister

ALULA: Pakistan’s Finance Minister Mohammed Aurangzeb described Saudi Arabia as a “longstanding partner” and emphasized the importance of sustainable, mutually beneficial cooperation, particularly in key economic sectors.

Speaking to Arab News on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, Aurangzeb said the relationship between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia remains resilient despite global geopolitical tensions.

“The Kingdom has been a longstanding partner of Pakistan for the longest time, and we are very grateful for how we have been supported through thick and thin, through rough patches and, even now that we have achieved macroeconomic stability, I think we are now well positioned for growth.”

Aurangzeb said the partnership has facilitated investment across several sectors, including minerals and mining, information technology, agriculture, and tourism. He cited an active pipeline of Saudi investments, including Wafi’s entry into Pakistan’s downstream oil and gas sector.

“The Kingdom has been very public about their appetite for the country, and the sectors are minerals and mining, IT, agriculture, tourism; and there are already investments which have come in. For example, Wafi came in (in terms of downstream oil and gas stations). There’s a very active pipeline.”

He said private sector activity is driving growth in these areas, while government-to-government cooperation is focused mainly on infrastructure development.

Acknowledging longstanding investor concerns related to bureaucracy and delays, Aurangzeb said Pakistan has made progress over the past two years through structural reforms and fiscal discipline, alongside efforts to improve the business environment.

“The last two years we have worked very hard in terms of structural reforms, in terms of what I call getting the basic hygiene right, in terms of the fiscal situation, the current economic situation (…) in terms of all those areas of getting the basic hygiene in a good place.”

Aurangzeb highlighted mining and refining as key areas of engagement, including discussions around the Reko Diq project, while stressing that talks with Saudi investors extend beyond individual ventures.

“From my perspective, it’s not just about one mine, the discussions will continue with the Saudi investors on a number of these areas.”

He also pointed to growing cooperation in the IT sector, particularly in artificial intelligence, noting that several Pakistani tech firms are already in discussions with Saudi counterparts or have established offices in the Kingdom.

Referring to recent talks with Saudi Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Alibrahim, Aurangzeb said Pakistan’s large freelance workforce presents opportunities for deeper collaboration, provided skills development keeps pace with demand.

“I was just with (Saudi) minister of economy and planning, and he was specifically referring to the Pakistani tech talent, and he is absolutely right. We have the third-largest freelancer population in the world, and what we need to do is to ensure that we upscale, rescale, upgrade them.”

Aurangzeb also cited opportunities to benefit from Saudi Arabia’s experience in the energy sector and noted continued cooperation in defense production.

Looking ahead, he said Pakistan aims to recalibrate its relationship with Saudi Arabia toward trade and investment rather than reliance on aid.

“Our prime minister has been very clear that we want to move this entire discussion as we go forward from aid and support to trade and investment.”