OPEC supply hike expected as planned as downside demand risks remain

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Updated 01 September 2021
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OPEC supply hike expected as planned as downside demand risks remain

  • OPEC+ has revised up its 2022 oil demand forecast ahead of a meeting on Wednesday
  • Group's experts now believe demand will reach 4.2million barrels per day (bpd) next year

Although OPEC+ is widely expected to press ahead with its intended output increase of 400k barrels per day at it's meeting on Wednesday, it remains to be seen how the alliance would address the downside demand risks stemming from the Delta variant, Han Tan, Chief Market Analyst at Exinity Group said.

An OPEC+ supply hike should also help keep key members of the alliance onside, placing a lid on the political dramas that have plagued key meetings in the recent past, he added.

Oil prices should find enough support from continuously tightening global market conditions through year-end. However, any upside in prices may be limited, barring a halt to OPEC+ output hikes, with the group’s own projections reportedly pointing to a return to surplus in 2022.

From a technical perspective, the 50-day simple moving average remains the immediate resistance level for WTI futures, while offering immediate support for Brent, he added.

OPEC+ has revised up its 2022 oil demand forecast ahead of the meeting later today amid pressure from the United States to ramp up production, according to Reuters.

Oil prices were up Wednesday morning. The news agency is reporting that the group's experts now believe demand will reach 4.2million barrels per day (bpd) next year, up from the previous forecast of 3.28 million bpd

OPEC+, which includes Russia, meets on Wednesday evening at 18:00 Saudi Arabian time and is forecast to stick to its planned increase of 400,000 bpd, despite President Biden's administration calling for a greater rise to help to support the global economy.

Despite the increase in production, world stocks of oil are expected to fall at an average rate of 825,000 bpd a day over the next four months.

However, the higher demand forecast strengthens the case for a speedier output increases by OPEC+ as benchmark Brent crude traded above $72 per barrel, close to multi-year highs.

The demand forecast revision came during the OPEC+ joint technical committee (JTC), which on Tuesday presented an updated report on the state of the oil market in 2021-2022.

On Tuesday, OPEC+ sources said the report, which has not been made public, forecast a 0.9 million bpd deficit this year as global demand recovers.

The report had initially forecast a surplus of 2.5 million bpd in 2022 but this was later revised to a smaller surplus of 1.6 million bpd due to stronger demand, the sources said.

As a result, commercial oil inventories in the OECD, a group of mostly developed countries, would remain below their 2015-2019 average until May 2022 rather than the initial forecast for January 2022, the JTC presentation showed, according to the sources.

However, JCB Energy revealed that OPEC crude output rose by 285k b/d m/m in August to 27.24 million b/d, Bloomberg reported. Saudi Arabia led the gains, increasing by 100k b/d to 9.6 million b/d. OPEC is reviving output as planned, but increases are being tempered by production issues in West Africa.


Saudi investment pipeline active as reforms advance, says Pakistan minister

Updated 08 February 2026
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Saudi investment pipeline active as reforms advance, says Pakistan minister

ALULA: Pakistan’s Finance Minister Mohammed Aurangzeb described Saudi Arabia as a “longstanding partner” and emphasized the importance of sustainable, mutually beneficial cooperation, particularly in key economic sectors.

Speaking to Arab News on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, Aurangzeb said the relationship between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia remains resilient despite global geopolitical tensions.

“The Kingdom has been a longstanding partner of Pakistan for the longest time, and we are very grateful for how we have been supported through thick and thin, through rough patches and, even now that we have achieved macroeconomic stability, I think we are now well positioned for growth.”

Aurangzeb said the partnership has facilitated investment across several sectors, including minerals and mining, information technology, agriculture, and tourism. He cited an active pipeline of Saudi investments, including Wafi’s entry into Pakistan’s downstream oil and gas sector.

“The Kingdom has been very public about their appetite for the country, and the sectors are minerals and mining, IT, agriculture, tourism; and there are already investments which have come in. For example, Wafi came in (in terms of downstream oil and gas stations). There’s a very active pipeline.”

He said private sector activity is driving growth in these areas, while government-to-government cooperation is focused mainly on infrastructure development.

Acknowledging longstanding investor concerns related to bureaucracy and delays, Aurangzeb said Pakistan has made progress over the past two years through structural reforms and fiscal discipline, alongside efforts to improve the business environment.

“The last two years we have worked very hard in terms of structural reforms, in terms of what I call getting the basic hygiene right, in terms of the fiscal situation, the current economic situation (…) in terms of all those areas of getting the basic hygiene in a good place.”

Aurangzeb highlighted mining and refining as key areas of engagement, including discussions around the Reko Diq project, while stressing that talks with Saudi investors extend beyond individual ventures.

“From my perspective, it’s not just about one mine, the discussions will continue with the Saudi investors on a number of these areas.”

He also pointed to growing cooperation in the IT sector, particularly in artificial intelligence, noting that several Pakistani tech firms are already in discussions with Saudi counterparts or have established offices in the Kingdom.

Referring to recent talks with Saudi Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Alibrahim, Aurangzeb said Pakistan’s large freelance workforce presents opportunities for deeper collaboration, provided skills development keeps pace with demand.

“I was just with (Saudi) minister of economy and planning, and he was specifically referring to the Pakistani tech talent, and he is absolutely right. We have the third-largest freelancer population in the world, and what we need to do is to ensure that we upscale, rescale, upgrade them.”

Aurangzeb also cited opportunities to benefit from Saudi Arabia’s experience in the energy sector and noted continued cooperation in defense production.

Looking ahead, he said Pakistan aims to recalibrate its relationship with Saudi Arabia toward trade and investment rather than reliance on aid.

“Our prime minister has been very clear that we want to move this entire discussion as we go forward from aid and support to trade and investment.”