Afghanistan: A volcano waiting to erupt
https://arab.news/8hvg9
It seems like history is repeating itself in Afghanistan. As US and NATO troops hurriedly withdrew from Afghanistan after almost two decades, the country is once again on the verge of a civil war. It is no secret that the US and its allies failed to build a sustainable system of governance and defense forces to protect the country, even after spending billions of dollars and resources in the last 20 years.
The morale of Afghan forces is at an all-time low. The recent example of 1,000 Afghan troops fleeing into neighboring Tajikistan was not a standalone event. It was the fifth case of Afghan forces crossing the border into Tajikistan within 14 days. Up till now almost 1,600 Afghan troops have crossed the border. These developments have not only depicted Afghan forces’ lack of will to fight and their defeated mindset but has also sent a message to the world that they will be unable to hold off Taliban forces, and the world should not pin any hopes on them.
Unsurprisingly, this development raised concerns in the capitals of regional countries especially Moscow, who fear that militant groups including Al-Qaeda and Daesh’s South Asian chapter could sneak into the Central Asian Republics and cause chaos.
Similarly, China is concerned about the resurgence of Uyghur militancy especially by the East Turkestan Islamic Movement in Xinjiang province as Taliban have previously supported them. However, Taliban spokesman Suhail Shaheen in a recent interview referred to China as a ‘welcome friend’ for reconstruction in Afghanistan and stated that they would no longer allow China’s Uyghur separatist fighters, some of whom had previously sought refuge in Afghanistan, to enter the country. He also claimed that Taliban have captured 85 percent of Afghan territory.
The region cannot afford the descent of Afghanistan into a civil war again.
Sehar Kamran
As the Taliban have been rapidly capturing district after district in the north and south of Kabul since the US withdrawal from Bagram air base, it is not a surprise that Taliban have emerged the biggest stakeholders in the country, rendering Kabul’s writ worthless.
Under the negotiated peace deal between the US and Taliban, it was agreed upon by both parties that if foreign forces withdraw, the latter will not allow its territory to be used by any militant group. However, it is important to note that the Taliban did not make any commitment to stop fighting Afghan forces, so we might see violent clashes between the two if Afghan forces hold their ground in the coming days.
According to the National Statistics and Information Authority, Afghanistan has one of the youngest and fastest growing populations in the world with approximately 63 percent of the population below 25 years of age. An entire generation of Afghan children have grown up in the shadows of war. It is significant that the future of Afghanistan is protected, and its youth does not fall prey to extremism-- otherwise the vicious cycle of death and destruction will not end. Afghan stakeholders and power-brokers bear a heavy responsibility in this regard.
Pakistan has unfortunately found itself bracing once more for the fallout. As the situation remains uncertain and prospects grim, the civil-military leadership will need to show a united front where Pakistan’s Afghan policy is concerned, as the country cannot afford a resurgence of Taliban movement inside the country.
Pakistan must remain vigilant and prevent any cross-border movement. It is feared that there will once again be an influx of Afghan refugees into the country, especially in the volatile Af-Pak border regions, from where TTP and Al-Qaeda militants may sneak back into the country. In this regard, the fencing of the Durand Line by the Pakistan army could prove to be an effective deterrent, but constant vigilance is the need of the hour.
The world is waiting with bated breath as the situation continues to unfold in Afghanistan. The region cannot afford the descent of Afghanistan into a civil war again. It will be disastrous for everyone.
- Sehar Kamran is the President of the Centre for Pakistan and Gulf Studies (CPGS), she is a prominent politician, acadmeician and practitioner in the areas of regional, international defense and strategic studies. Twitter @SeharKamran
