Does PM Modi’s meeting with select Kashmiri leaders signify a rethink?
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On 24 June 2021, Prime Minister Narendra Modi met a select group of Kashmiri politicians including Farooq and Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti in New Delhi. It was the first reach out to a brand of Kashmiri politicians that have been traditionally loyal to Delhi but given the public outrage following the August 5, 2019 actions by India, had been marginalized and kept under detention.
These politicians called upon Modi to rescind the 2019 measures and restore full statehood to Jammu and Kashmir. Apparently, they were told that India was inclined to do so but after delimitation of constituencies, especially in Jammu that would in fact give the BJP a majority based on religion in the new J&K Assembly.
For some time, India had signaled its intent to restore the status of J&K to a state from just being a Union Territory. But Article 370 of the Constitution that had provided special status to J&K would not be restored. In short, the Indian game plan is to change facts on the ground. Proposals for fresh delimitation of constituencies is meant to have a predominantly Hindu Assembly and thus impose a cosmetic solution to the J&K dispute.
The second Modi administration has witnessed a regression of India both in terms of its international stature and domestically in terms of disruption of social cohesion and a downturn in the economy.
Salman Bashir
It is evident that such a solution will not be acceptable to the Kashmiris and will be viewed as a tactical ploy by Pakistan. Consequently, the situation in Indian-administered Kashmir will continue to deteriorate and even if Pakistan were to take at face value these steps of a cosmetic roll back, the gravity of the Kashmir dispute will remain with concomitant effects.
Prime Minister Modi has been obliged by circumstances to remodify his Kashmir annexation plan. Several factors have compelled a rethink in strategy.
One, India has not been able to quell the Kashmiri uprising despite its brutal crackdown. A new generation of Kashmiris have taken on the cause of freedom with renewed vigor.
Two, the second Modi administration has witnessed a regression of India both in terms of its international stature and domestically in terms of disruption of social cohesion and a downturn in the economy.
Three, Pakistan and China have rejected the 2019 measures as ‘illegal’ and ‘unacceptable.’ In May and June 2020, China reacted to Indian claims on Ladakh and Aksai Chin by taking measures on the ground in defense of Chinese sovereignty and position on the Line of Actual Control. Although Pakistan showed considerable restraint, Indian strategists worry about India facing a two-front situation, which it will find impossible to manage.
Four, India’s position in its own region has weakened considerably. Relations with immediate neighbors have deteriorated. India also faces a China challenge in Nepal, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Maldives. It has lost primacy in South Asia and the Indian Ocean region.
Five, the retrograde of US forces from Afghanistan and the Taliban advance is a cause of anxiety for New Delhi. Having worked against the Taliban for decades, New Delhi fears the inevitable rise of the Taliban, which stirs historical memories of the sweep of the Afghans and Central Asians over India spanning almost a thousand years.
Six, the geo-strategic equilibrium is bound to undergo a radical change. There is a distinct likelihood of a new geopolitical and economic grouping consisting of Russia, China, Iran and Pakistan that could open new avenues of cooperative partnerships that will benefit Eurasia and from which India may remain excluded.
Seven, the pandemic’s devastation has caused considerable grief to India and its long-term economic implications will be felt for a long time. India is no longer rising and shining.
All of these factors may have compelled a change of tack by Modi. On the other hand, Pakistan is intent on pursuing its economic security paradigm shift that requires peace and stability in the neighborhood.
Pakistan will be prepared to engage with India to bring about a degree of predictability and normalcy in relations. But India will have to demonstrate its seriousness in addressing the Kashmir dispute for an eventual settlement. That is then the central element that will shape India’s destiny and the region’s.
Prime Minister Modi and his RSS band have to realize that cosmetic measures will not do. They will only postpone the reckoning that will be India’s fate, if it does not heed the requirements of our times and the dictates of justice and morality in Kashmir.
- Salman Bashir is a Pakistani diplomat who served as Foreign Secretary of Pakistan and as High Commissioner of Pakistan to India.
Twitter: @Salman_B_PK
