A convincing ‘No’ to US bases in Pakistan
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The uproar in the media and parliament was inevitable given the history of Pakistan-US relations and specifically the history of and the experience of Pakistan providing air bases to the US. It was a May 24 news report in a Pakistani daily that prompted the latest debate on whether Pakistan had currently allowed the US to have military bases on Pakistani soil. The report really did not provide any substantive information but had merely referred to the 2001 agreement under which military ruler General Pervez Musharraf had allowed US air bases in Pakistan. More importantly, it was the earlier statement by the US central command chairman General Kenneth McKenzie jr. in his Senate hearing that while Washington will withdraw all its troops from Afghanistan by September 11, it is currently discussing with neighbors including Pakistan, the possibility of retaining American presence in the region. Airbases automatically become the first issue. So combined with the news report, the debate on air bases has continued.
While the political climate and troubled history of Pakistan-US relations explains the questioning of the current government, there are several reasons why the government should be believed when it says it will not provide bases to Washington. At least six are obvious and noteworthy.
One, in the digital era and in the multiple players both in Pakistan and in Washington who would be involved in any such decision, it is difficult to keep such an agreement under wraps. Hence transparency alone would militate against the government committing on one position and actually taking another.
Two, the parliament in Pakistan, despite all the political battling, continues to increase its voice many decibels above what it was in 2001 when Musharraf was able to take a unilateral decision in providing bases to Washington. Today, the government is questioned rigorously by all opposition parties on issues of foreign policy especially where it comes to critical matters like foreign air bases. Hence, the foreign ministers’ commitment seems to be one that ought to be believed.
Any move that undermines trust between Beijing and Islamabad is completely ruled out. Pakistan therefore will not opt for any move against the backdrop of Washington-Beijing tensions and the US-led QUAD grouping seeking to militarily ‘contain’ China.
Nasim Zehra
Three, within the Pakistan security setup there is no clear consensus on providing air bases to Washington or going back to the 80’s and post-9/11 embrace with the US. In fact while seeking closer cooperation with Washington, problems including distrust, unilateralism and Washington’s India-centric approach do raise the red flag in the case for providing such strategic facilities.
Four, Pakistan sees its role in the region and beyond, increasingly as autonomous and cooperative with other major regional and global powers. A cog in Washington’s wheel no more! Recent initiatives taken by Pakistan on Palestine, within the OIC etc all indicate that Pakistan will not associate itself with any one grouping. It will in fact continue to be engaged with countries based on its own national interest.
Five, that while remaining autonomous and engaging with different countries in accordance with its national interest, Pakistan has a deep and growing strategic relationship with China. Pakistan views this relationship as one that is mutually beneficial and accruing security, economic well-being and connectivity for Pakistan. Any move that undermines trust between Beijing and Islamabad is completely ruled out. Pakistan therefore will not opt for any move against the backdrop of Washington-Beijing tensions and the US-led QUAD grouping seeking to militarily ‘contain’ China.
Six, Prime Minister Imran Khan has repeatedly emphasized his decision to not drag Pakistan into ‘someone else’s war.’ Accordingly his conduct since taking over as Prime Minister, though often guided by security institutions, has been categorical about Pakistan not getting involved in war and conflict. In his January 2020 policy speech, he emphasized that Pakistan had learned from its mistakes, paid a high price for its involvement in the ‘war on terror’ and since clearly none emerge victorious from a war, Pakistan will be involved in peace-making, not in war.
In his rather flamboyant declaration, last week the foreign minister Shah Mahmood declared in the parliament that under Imran Khan there will be no US bases on Pakistani soil. Each one of Pakistan’s elected governments opposed granting military bases to any foreign power or providing Pakistani soldiers for battles in foreign lands.
Pakistanis believe the government. And indeed supports its no bases policy.
*Nasim Zehra is an author, analyst and national security expert.
Twitter: @NasimZehra
