WASHINGTON: China won't help the United States reopen the Strait of Hormuz as requested by President Donald Trump, but it is probably welcoming the delay in Trump's highly anticipated trip to Beijing as the US risks getting bogged down in the Middle East, analysts say.
The latest developments are unfolding as Trump's Iran war, in its third week, is faced with mounting pressure as oil has stopped moving through the strait and U.S. allies have refused to step up to secure the strait. That has produced concerns that China, the United States' biggest geopolitical rival, could stand to benefit from a war that some say was ill-considered.
“President Trump’s request to delay his long-awaited summit with President Xi Jinping underscores how significantly he underestimated the fallout from Operation Epic Fury,” said Ali Wyne, senior research and advocacy adviser for US-China relations at the International Crisis Group. “A show of US force that was meant to intimidate Beijing has instead served to puncture the illusion of US omnipotence: Unable to reopen the Strait of Hormuz alone, Washington now needs its principal strategic competitor to help it manage a crisis of its own making.”
The Chinese Foreign Ministry gave a nonanswer when asked if it would help reopen the strait but repeated its call for “parties to immediately stop military operations, avoid further escalation of the tense situation and prevent regional turmoil from further impacting the global economy.”
On Wednesday, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said China would continue mediating to push for a ceasefire and an end to fighting in the Middle East, which it believed should have never started. The remarks came during a meeting with the UAE presidential special envoy to China, Khaldoon Al Mubarak.
Beijing, which had never officially confirmed Trump's state visit, originally scheduled for March 31, has signaled willingness to work with the U.S. to reschedule the visit by stating that the two sides “remain in communication." It even helped clarify that the postponement had nothing to do with Trump's request for China to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
On Tuesday, Trump said the Chinese “were fine" with the delay and claimed “a very good working relationship with China.”
Sun Yun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, said, “I think the Iran request is now going to be less pressing for China to fulfill.” At the same time, Chinese diplomats have been engaging with countries in the Middle East, pledging a constructive role in easing tensions and restoring peace.
On Sunday, through the Red Cross and the Red Crescent, Beijing delivered to Iran an emergency humanitarian aid package of $200,000, earmarked for families of children and teachers killed in the bombing of the Shajarah Tayyebeh elementary school building in Minab, Iran, with the Chinese ambassador to Iran condemning the school attack.
State visit delayed
China said Wednesday that it was in contact with the United States about a postponed visit by Donald Trump, but was tight-lipped about a timetable after the US leader said he would make the trip in five or six weeks.
The visit, which was originally set to start March 31, has been highly anticipated given the powers’ strategic and commercial rivalry that has been exacerbated by Trump’s aggressive tariff campaign.
“Both China and the United States will continue to maintain communication regarding President Trump’s visit to China,” Lin Jian, a spokesman for China’s foreign ministry, told a news conference.
The visit, which was months on the making, has been disrupted by the war in the Middle East.
Trump said on Tuesday that the high-stakes trip would take place in “five or six weeks.”
He suggested on Sunday that the date of his trip could depend on whether China assists in unblocking the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed off by Iran in retaliation for US-Israeli strikes on Tehran.
Trump confirmed a day later the likelihood of a delay, but instead cited the need to remain in the United States due to the war.
China has never publicly confirmed any date for the visit, in line with its usual practice.
Pivot away from Asia
Transfers of military assets from the Indo-Pacific region to the Middle East,, including a sizable portion of Marines deployed there as part of a rapid-response unit and an anti-missile defense system, have raised concerns that the U.S. could get distracted from its own stated priority to refocus on Asia.
“The longer this war continues, and the more forces that are shifted out of Asia, the more it will feed Asian allies’ concerns about US distraction and resource constraints,” said Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where he studies US strategy in Asia.
A delay in the state visit could also mean a delay in any arms sales to the self-governing island of Taiwan to deter attacks from Beijing, he said. China has vowed to take Taiwan by force if necessary, but the United States is obligated by its own law to give the island sufficient hardware to defend itself. The issue remains the thorniest in U.S.-China relations.
“I believe that China is happy to delay the visit and reap the benefits as the United States once again gets bogged down in the Middle East,” Cooper said.
And Beijing probably doesn't need to do much, he added: “I think most Chinese experts and officials believe that the United States is undermining itself, so they just need to get out of the way.”
