Are prospects for peace diminishing in Afghanistan?
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The US announcement for the withdrawal of foreign forces by September 11 was an important development that should have caused huge expectations for the end to a long war.
But as time passes, obstacles to a rapprochement are emerging.
The Taliban have not been able to take a clear position so far on the schedule of withdrawal of forces or an agreement to participate in the conference in Turkey that would seek to promote reconciliation between Taliban and other factions including the Kabul government. This uncertainty has generated suspicions about whether there will be a full and complete withdrawal of forces if no consensus is reached on governance systems. Will the Taliban in the event of withdrawal of foreign forces, begin a march to the capital, Kabul? And in that case, could the country plunge yet again into civil war?
These are troubling questions. And before the situation further worsens, a serious effort is needed to reactivate meaningful contacts among all stakeholders.
As a grim picture looms on the horizon, there is an alarming rise in the number of violent attacks across the country. Like the suicide bomber who attacked a government guest house in Pul-i-alam last week which caused the deaths of more than 30 people including a large number of students staying there in preparation for a competitive examination.
More than 60 people were wounded in the attack. No one has so far accepted responsibility, but in the past, such attacks have been carried out by Daesh. There has been an upsurge in attacks in many other parts of the country as well.
Emphasis on such issues as ceasefire may be well motivated, but Taliban will not be willing to direct their cadres to stop attacks for the simple reason that any such cessation in hostilities could cause their movement to fade away.
Rustam Shah Mohmand
As violence escalated, a statement issued by the Taliban spokesman added another ominous dimension to hopes for reconciliation. The statement asserted that because the US had not been able to stick to the May deadline for the troop withdrawal, so they would resume attacks on foreign forces. If that happens, the whole scheme of bringing the conflict to an end will suffer an irreparable blow. Before the red lines are crossed, there is need for stock taking and an intelligent reappraisal of the situation.
Taliban will, by their obstinacy, lose a chance to return the country to normalcy after such a long battle. The principal demand and one that they consistently presented before the Afghan people and the world, was the expulsion of all foreign forces. Now that the exit of forces is in sight, they should not by their words or deeds cause the process to be disrupted. As a matter of fact, they should be preparing for the next phase of the process for bringing peace to the country –their participation in an interim government. Luckily, there is now widespread consensus on the imperative need for installing an interim government in which the Taliban will have a dominant role.
If the Taliban choose to remain intransigent on the issue of the schedule of departure of foreign forces, the government in Kabul will seize the opportunity. In the event an interim government is established, current leaders will have to go-- which they won’t want to accept unless the US threatens to terminate financial assistance.
The current Kabul government will have to be confronted with the grim realities of whether they want to protect their positions in government or are more focused on saving the country from the pains and sufferings of a chaos that could overwhelm its fragile institutions and infrastructure. The US role will be crucial in creating an environment for convening ‘Loya Jirga ‘— or grand consultative assembly for creating that government.
Amid the economy crumbling, the government losing control of large swathes of the country, drug use and unemployment, hopes for real peace are declining.
For its part, the US should pay serious attention to the two demands the Taliban have been making: the release of the remaining Taliban prisoners and the termination of the blacklist carrying names of important Taliban leaders on whom travel and other restrictions have been placed.
If there is some progress on these two issues, the Taliban may agree to wait for Sept. 11 and would be willing to participate in the conference convened jointly by the UN, Turkey and Qatar. The real issue then will be an agreement on creating a government that includes Taliban and other groups including some of those now in government.
The problem is how to create conditions for an inclusive, broad-based government that is able to take control of the country, restore normalcy and help create an environment for the historic task of reconstruction. Emphasis on such issues as cease-fire may be well motivated, but Taliban will not be willing to direct their cadres to stop attacks for the simple reason that any such cessation in hostilities could cause their movement to fade away.
- Rustam Shah Mohmand is a specialist of Afghanistan and Central Asian Affairs. He has served as Pakistan’s ambassador to Afghanistan and also held position of Chief Commissioner Refugees for a decade.