The Afghanistan Situation-What should Pakistan Do?
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It was recently announced that NATO troops will stay in Afghanistan beyond the May 2021 deadline stipulated in the US-Taliban agreement of February 2020. This was expected given what the US Congress had legislated and what US Secretary of State Antony Blinken had said about the Taliban not living up to their pledge of reducing violence.
Further difficulties can now be anticipated for the Afghan people in a war weary Afghanistan, while talks between the Taliban and the President Ghani government are at a standstill. As I write this, there seems to be little chance that the permanent cease-fire, seen by most observers as a necessary prelude for the long negotiations needed to work out a power-sharing agreement will be anything more than a distant dream. For days, there have been no Taliban-government meetings. Ghani Baradar is, in the meanwhile, meeting Iranian officials in Tehran and is being told that Iran will not recognize a government in Afghanistan that comes through military pressure and war. Abdullah Abdullah says the visit to Iran was in harmony with the Afghan government, while spokesperson for the Afghan government says the Taliban are “busy with foreign trips instead of talking peace.” In other words, instead of unity, there are contradictory positions in Kabul.
Notwithstanding what appeared to be good discussions during PM Imran Khan’s visit to Kabul and appreciation of his pledge to support Afghan-led and Afghan owned negotiations, President Ghani has now said that “Taliban should halt their ties with Pakistan” and that if Taliban claim to be Afghans and want to live in Afghanistan, they cannot have dual citizenship. The Afghan Ambassador in Washington, in an article in the Washington Post, expresses her expectations from Pakistan to deny the Taliban a base and truly work toward regional economic development. This, Pakistan policy makers must realize, will have resonance with the Biden administration. One can expect them to ask for Pakistan’s pressure on the Taliban to be less obdurate or, more likely, to ask Islamabad to deny the Taliban sanctuary in Pakistan and to carry on further negotiations with the Kabul government from areas they control in Afghanistan.
The Afghan Ambassador in Washington, in an article in the Washington Post, expresses her expectations from Pakistan to deny the Taliban a base and truly work toward regional economic development. This, Pakistan policy makers must realize, will have resonance with the Biden administration.
Najmuddin A. Shaikh
What are the other facts that Pakistan should consider? In terms of the US position the following is relevant:
The US and NATO as the principal financiers and weapon suppliers of the ANDSF are committed to providing the $4.1 billion annually along with substantial economic assistance up to 2024 provided there is progress toward reconciliation.
Under Trump, the troop level in Afghanistan was reduced to 2,500 despite a provision in the veto proof defense bill that no money will be used for a drawdown until Congress had been informed in detail of the reasons for the drawdown. This was justified on the grounds that the drawdown had commenced and could not be stopped. Another provision in the same legislation however requires that there be a risk assessment before the number of US troops can be reduced below 2,000. There is a provision for a Presidential waiver but if he chooses to exercise a waiver authority, the President must tell Congress why a waiver is important to the national interest and provide a detailed explanation.
In the present political setting in Washington, President Biden and his advisers will want to cooperate with Congress and Congress obviously wants the withdrawal from Afghanistan to be truly conditions’ based i.e. ensuring that the Taliban are living up to their word of reducing violence and breaking ties with Al-Qaeda and other militant groups.
The Lead Inspector General for Afghanistan reported that in the 3rd quarter of 2020 there were 31,162 personnel being paid for by the US in Afghanistan, of which more than 13,000 were US nationals. Even when all these are withdrawn, there will be CIA created and supported forces including the notorious Khost Protection force and other forces all over the country.
Whatever the Taliban believe they have been promised, these largely Afghan forces with unidentifiable mercenaries providing technical assistance will remain in place.
Apart from these US related factors Pakistan should consider the following:
The World Bank rates the Afghan government as one of the worst in the world as well as one of the most corrupt countries in the world. The Afghan government, according to the Long War Journal which is probably the best source for gauging control over territory in Afghanistan, says that the Taliban control 75 of 398 districts in Afghanistan that it reports on and contests 187 more. The Taliban controls 4.6 million Afghans and contests control for 13 million more. The Afghan government still holds all major cities and is credited with authority over 15.2 million people. This is meaningless in reality since the Afghan government does not really control many of these districts which are under regional politicians and power brokers.
Along with the other turmoil, there are land disputes with Mangals and Kharotis fighting over land in Paktia and presumably seeking support of the Taliban or local warlords.
*Ambassador Najmuddin A. Shaikh is a former foreign secretary of Pakistan, and served as high commissioner to Canada, ambassador to Germany, US and Iran. He is a former member of the board of governors of the Institute of Strategic Studies in Islamabad and a founding member of the Karachi Council of Foreign Relations.
