Day 2 of the Future Investment Initiative: an economist’s perspective (or what it takes to build better)
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The second day of the Future Investment Initiative (FII) investigated what the post-COVID -19 economic future might look like, and presented some bold visions.
This was the logical progression from Day 1 of the conference, which had painted with a broad brush the impact the pandemic has had on the economy, and delineated what that meant for investments in all sectors.
The theme of this year’s event, “neo-renaissance,” was cleverly chosen. It was inspired by the renaissance in Florence during 15th and 16th centuries, when the economy, culture and the arts flourished as the world was recovering from another pandemic, the Black Death.
A true neo-renaissance is synonymous with building better, which can only be achieved with vision. Just as nothing succeeds like success, nothing proves the importance of such vision better than a strong example — and the rousing start to the second day of the FII provided just that.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman inspired the audience with his vision and plan to develop Riyadh into an exciting new metropolis with 15 to 20 million inhabitants. His presentation was accompanied by a flurry of announcements by international companies that they will base their regional headquarters in Riyadh.
This is not the only big urban project in the Kingdom. Under Saudi Vision 2030 there is also the NEOM city of the future, Qiddiya and Amaala, among other projects. These are not just cities and resorts of the future in terms of digitization, technology and transport, they are also leading the way in terms of the environment and sustainability. NEOM, for example, will be 100 percent powered by renewable energy. These bold projects will not just set the standard and pace in the region but also globally.
Saudi Minister of Investment Khalid Al-Falih explained the importance of domestic and international private-sector investment, and the government’s determination to create the framework conditions necessary to achieve the vision for Riyadh’s future.
A vision without a plan for execution leads nowhere, as Fahd Al-Rasheed, the president of the Royal Commission for Riyadh City, pointed out most eloquently. He emphasized the crown prince’s focus on execution and governance. Saudi Arabia is leading the way in thinking big and thinking outside the box, which is what is needed if we are to build better.
The Kingdom also played an important leadership role throughout 2020, when it held the presidency of the G20 and called an early summit in March when the pandemic began. Fahad Al-Mubarak, governor of the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA), and the Kingdom’s G20 sherpa, stressed the importance of multilateral cooperation. Under Saudi leadership, the G20 drove coordination of the economic response to the pandemic by governments, a coordinated approach to healthcare and vaccines, as well as the Debt Service Suspension Initiative, which is a crucial mechanism for the weakest developing countries.
In the same vein, Saudi Ambassador to the US Princess Reema bint Bandar instilled in the audience a sense of global responsibility by asking them to contribute to the efforts of the World Food Program, which was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize last year. In the past year, the pandemic, conflicts and climate change combined to double the number of people facing starvation worldwide from 130 million to 270 million. To prevent them from starving would cost $5 billion.
From a macroeconomic perspective the conference powerfully highlighted the importance of international cooperation when dealing with global threats such as COVID-19. It also showed how those who were best prepared and had contingency plans and operational capabilities in place — be they countries or companies — had fared much better than those who did not.
The world will be a very different place after COVID-19. Advancements in digitization, biotech technologies and artificial intelligence have accelerated beyond the wildest expectations. It is these technological advances that will allow the global economy to become a more equitable and prosperous place.
Digitization helped the world get through the pandemic by allowing for work, education and other activities to be carried out remotely. It will also shape future economic activity, as new industries such as financial technology, or fintech, prove. The growth of fintech accelerated by leaps and bounds as a result of the pandemic — the 40 percent penetration it reached in the Kingdom in 2020 is just one example of this.
Corporate-financing methods have also changed and ever-evolving innovation will require investment of capital from venture capitalists as well as conventional financial institutions. The latter have become more concentrated since the financial crisis. They are also better capitalized, which is important because the rebuild will require capital. The conference also made clear that the interplay between fintech and traditional financial institutions will increase in the coming years.
ESG (Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance) was again woven through all sessions, which makes a lot of sense if the aim is to build better. A better world is one that is environmentally sustainable, more equitable and where governance matters.
The focus on the environment also has to be seen in the context of COP26, the UN Climate Change Conference, which will take place in Glasgow, Scotland, in November. It will set the bar a lot higher than ever before in terms of the commitments expected from signatories to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. This holds especially true because the US has re-joined the accord under the Biden administration.
Frustration over the lack of ESG metrics was voiced again. However, the emerging view on the second day of the conference was that digitization is giving investors the tools to measure compliance.
The COVID-19 pandemic has been a big test for humanity and for the global economy. In the words of Lubna Olayan, chairwoman of Saudi British Bank, we should not let the crisis go to waste. She is right: we should build better and, as far as ESG is concerned, listen to the voices of younger generations who deeply care about equity and the environment.
Yasir Al-Rumayyan, governor of the Saudi Public Investment Fund set the tone when he opened the conference by stating that the pandemic presents an unprecedented opportunity for fresh thinking. He was absolutely right. Just as fresh perspectives were the cornerstone of the renaissance in Florence, they are also what the neo-renaissance will be all about.
If one thing became obvious over the past two days, it is that out-of-the-box thinking will be required. The FII masterfully teased out the most important examples of what it takes to build better. The conference was unique in going well beyond the usual commonalities of conference speak, and giving the audience specific ways in which we can build a better, post-pandemic tomorrow.
• Cornelia Meyer is a Ph.D.-level economist with 30 years of experience in investment banking and industry. She is chairperson and CEO of business consultancy Meyer Resources.
Twitter: @MeyerResources
