Biden should look to France for guidance on Middle East

The Greater Middle East is the second place the transatlantic vision and alliance will be most challenged in the coming years, the first being in Western capitals. For the first time in decades and as the world’s geopolitical order is being reshuffled, there are questions about whether the entire Middle East region might shift from its historical alliance with the West, namely the US and Europe.
As we all know, the US is becoming energy independent from the region and is also looking to shift and reduce its footprint. Europe, on the other hand, is still dependent on the region and Russia to warm its homes in winter. Beyond the energy aspect, Western capitals will be deciding whether they are willing to keep their pre-eminence and defend their values not only in the Middle East but globally. One thing is for sure: Any mistake in the region will this time provoke a geopolitical shift that will have a big impact on global security and problematic consequences for the West.
It seems that, historically, Washington’s decisions on the Middle East and many other foreign policy issues always came after taking advice from Downing Street. The UK has always been a privileged adviser to the US, if not the most privileged, more than Paris or any other capital in the world. When discussing this topic with friends from the UK, I always tell them that I do not understand why the US listens to them so much. They keep giving the US bad advice, and I jokingly say that they do this on purpose because they are frustrated the US became the new leader of the world, replacing the UK, and because they hold a grudge toward France, which supported US independence. But, jokes aside, I believe that, at least when it comes to the Middle East, this should change and Washington should work more closely with Paris than any other capital.
Today, as challenges mount across the globe and especially in the Middle East, there is a need for a strong and renewed partnership between the US and Europe, particularly France. There is also an urgent need for Europe to step up to the challenges that it is facing on its borders. Until now, and unfortunately, Europe has appeared as a weak link in the Western alliance. This weakness has sometimes even made it a sort of bargaining chip or as something in need of rescue in regional issues.
The US has much to gain from working closely with France in these challenging times. France has a strong knowledge of the Middle East, understands its mechanisms, and often has a fair and balanced approach to its issues. More importantly, France — and Europe generally — has skin in the game in the region and is a committed long-term partner, which makes its decision-making process focused on long-term stability and problem-solving. President Emmanuel Macron also has a positive approach toward Russia and China alike, which is needed to find long-term solutions in the region.
Sunday’s call between Joe Biden and Macron, which came after the US president spoke to UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, could be the beginning of such a partnership. During the call, both leaders outlined some of the key issues and challenges facing the transatlantic alliance and NATO, including the Middle East, with its never-ending peace process and eternal Iranian nuclear issue. Ultimately, all the issues in the Middle East symbolize the challenges the world is facing. It is also a witness to the growing influence of China, as well as Russia, and the potential shift toward a stronger eastern alliance. A final point where France and the US are now in complete alignment is climate change, and this will also have a bigger than expected impact on our region on many levels.
These geopolitical shifts come at a time when the coronavirus pandemic has, more than anything else, shown the weaknesses of Europe when handling a difficult situation. Many people in the rest of the world are questioning if we are witnessing the end of Western influence. Has the influence of Europe and the US, through both hard and soft power, entered the final phase of decline, especially in the Middle East? This has led to a more defiant and independent policymaking attitude in the Middle East, by both the enemies and friends of the transatlantic alliance. When US Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian on Wednesday, they discussed ways to renew and further strengthen the transatlantic relationship. Blinken also referred to France as the US’ oldest ally.
The key issue the Western alliance should understand, which will have strong consequences on where the Middle East goes from here, is the Iranian nuclear file. This is especially true for Lebanon, which Macron has been genuinely trying to help and which he was adamant on mentioning during his call with Biden. However, the prosperous future for Lebanon that Macron envisions cannot take place if there is a full takeover by Hezbollah. A new weak nuclear agreement that does not cover the subject of Iranian interference beyond its borders will be the equivalent of handing the keys of the region to Iran, and those of Lebanon to Hezbollah. It would be a big mistake for the Western alliance.

France has a strong knowledge of the region, understands its mechanisms, and often has a fair and balanced approach to its issues.

Khaled Abou Zahr

The biggest loser would end up being the Western alliance itself, not the Arab countries as one might expect. The Western allies in the region would be forced to shift and rebalance their alliances and withdraw from the openness they have privileged the West with until now. At the same time, a weak deal would not bring the Iranian regime any closer to the West, but would rather encourage it to challenge the West even more and with greater resources. Arab allies of the Western alliance would find a way to cope and to rebalance their interests, but the West would lose out.
A decade ago, this was not the case, and leading Arab countries were genuinely worried. Today, they have carved out for themselves a more independent niche and have larger maneuvering prospects. They will be able to rebalance their interests, cooperating on security files with the West when needed, while also deepening their relations with China, India and Russia.
Another weak nuclear deal might just be the final nail in the coffin for the old relationship status between the West and the region. France, which does not have the means of its policies but understands the importance of empowering local allies, would therefore be capable of helping the US find the proper and needed balance.

• Khaled Abou Zahr is CEO of Eurabia, a media and tech company. He is also the editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.