Year-end impressions about the region: Pakistan, India and China
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As 2020 draws to a close, it will be scripted by history as the year of the pandemic-- a transformational year which disrupted normal life and amplified fault lines in politics, economy and governance the world over.
In South Asia, established assumptions about states, societies and interstate conduct were challenged. India suffered immense reputational loss, an unprecedented economic slump, social turmoil and lost its credentials as a secular democracy with rule of law and a modicum of enlightened values and justice.
Transfixed with great power ambitions, it opted to abandon all caution in powering its hegemony by use of force in Kashmir and against China in Ladakh. India’s obsession with Pakistan witnessed new escalatory measures by intensifying active hostilities across the Line of Control and a propaganda blitz extinguishing hopes for regional cooperation.
The Indian military faces non violent but determined resistance by the Kashmiris. Widespread alienation of the Kashmiris from India has closed all avenues for opportunistic compromises or tricky deals. Increasingly, the only way for India to get itself out of the Kashmir quagmire will be to respect the Kashmiri aspirations for freedom.
Pakistan-India relations have sharply deteriorated. Talk of a military misadventure against Pakistan by India originates from political circles in India and is doubly amplified by a controlled and hyper nationalist Indian media that has lost itself to sentiment.
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement has created a vast free trade region and signifies the road ahead and benefits of greater regional economic cooperation. India has opted to remain out of this arrangement, signifying a diminished economic self-esteem and fears of China’s economic might.
Salman Bashir
China-India relations witnessed a sharp deterioration with the outbreak of hostilities in the Ladakh and adjoining regions along the disputed border. The main cause was the dissolution of the illegally occupied state of Jammu and Kashmir by India in August 2019 and the incorporation of Ladakh as a union territory accompanied by claims to the Chinese region of Aksai Chin. India’s aggressive infrastructure build up and potential for transgressions into Chinese territory and its decision to serve as a US proxy in the US-China rivalry also contributed to a strained relationship with China.
Pakistan remained mired in domestic political and economic challenges, trying to fix governance and facing the brunt of global power play with attendant regional implications. Geo-economics eventually became the operating norm of government policies, borne out of a clear recognition that aggregation of national economic strength and converting geography to economic advantage must become a strategic priority. Fortunately, the China Pakistan Economic Corridor provides the viable instrument to realize this vision of development, stability and peace.
Pakistan deepened its relations of cooperation with Russia and China bilaterally and via the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. This also accords with the geo-economic imperatives and solid convergence of interests in regional peace and stability. This vision is notable for its inclusivity and not based on considerations of power politics or short-term expediencies.
Relations with the US, which for over 40 years were a function of respective Afghanistan policies improved with notable cooperation in joint efforts to bring stability and peace to Afghanistan. There is a marked convergence of interests in this regard. Pakistan is keenly desirous of ensuring the success of intra Afghan talks. It has redoubled its reach out to all Afghan parties and taken important steps bilaterally to extend economic support and in particular, the facilitation of transit trade for Afghan goods over land even to India.
The Pakistan, Afghanistan and China ministerial mechanism on economic cooperation holds promise of paying rich dividends. The Taliban are also increasingly receptive to according priority to economic advancement and it is to be hoped that a joint Afghan consensus may be reached for taking practical steps for development in cooperation with the international community. CPEC’s extension to Afghanistan is a distinct option that would suit the requirements of all sides.
China was able to stage a quick recovery from COVID 19 and re-powered its economy. It demonstrated its much enhanced all-round capacities and more importantly, its intention to work within the international system as a responsible stake holder.
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement has created a vast free trade region and signifies the road ahead and benefits of greater regional economic cooperation. India has opted to remain out of this arrangement, signifying a diminished economic self-esteem and fears of China’s economic might. Greater trade within the region should be good for all. Pakistan needs to make better use of its FTA with China and preferential and other trading arrangements with ASEAN. The SCO also needs to develop a more robust focus on trade facilitation.
One lesson that 2020, particularly the pandemic, has taught is that in an interdependent and connected world there is no alternative to cooperation. Placing premiums on military power is self-defeating; abandoning globalization is no longer an option; interdependence warrants multilateral cooperation. Playing from the old play book of power politics will prove ruinous. Mankind must not turn back on its collective civilizational achievements.
Three geographically contiguous nuclear powers-- India, China and Pakistan- must learn to live with each other and devote themselves to higher ideals and cooperation for development.
*Salman Bashir is a Pakistani diplomat who served as Foreign Secretary of Pakistan and as High Commissioner of Pakistan to India.
Twitter: @Salman_B_PK
