Which way is the Pakistan Democratic Movement going? 

The leaders of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), an alliance of 11 political parties that include religious, ethnic and two major national parties, have been holding rallies in different parts of the country in an effort to bring down the government of Prime Minister Imran Khan.

The question is why, why now, and by what means can the opposition remove an elected government? 

In the parliamentary system that Pakistan practices, the executive or the prime minister can stay in power as long as he enjoys the confidence of the house, while the Parliament is elected for five years. They cannot exercise the option of ‘no-confidence’ or in-house change because the numbers game cannot work in their favor. 

Khan’s party has the support of allies to sustain a comfortable majority, and is even in a position to break parliamentarians away from opposition parties, if and when it requires. Never has it been a problem for any government in the past to beat back opposition offensives within the parliament. 

Even when a government might lose its majority by defections from its ranks or when the governing coalitions split, the system leaves the prime minister in an advantageous position, with the powers to dissolve the assemblies and call for fresh elections. This is exactly what the opposition parties seem to be struggling for— fresh, free and fair elections. 

There are no signs and no compelling reasons in the present circumstances for the government to call for midterm elections; the government has two and a half years more to complete its tenure. So why can’t opposition parties wait for the next elections, is the six-million-dollar question. 

Prime Minister Imran Khan says there are some foreign powers that don’t want to see stability, strength and progress in some Muslim countries, and that Pakistan is one of them. He sees their hand behind the opposition movement. But governments in the past have spun such conspiracy theories to discredit opposition parties or movements. 

There are no signs and no compelling reasons in the present circumstances for the government to call for midterm elections; the government has two and a half years more to complete its tenure. So why can’t opposition parties wait for the next elections, is the six-million-dollar question. 

Rasul Bakhsh Rais 

There are solid political interest reasons that have played a role in uniting opposition parties on one platform and contributed to their drive for pulling Khan down. 

Imran Khan presents a third force in the politics of Pakistan, comprising of mainly youth, disgruntled political workers of dynastic political parties, middle class and professionals. They have found a voice in Khan’s narrative against corruption and dynastic politics, and in desiring to change Pakistan from a poor, struggling, unstable country to economically strong and progressing. 

The two major dynastic parties— the Pakistan Muslim League (N) and the Pakistan People’s Party are concerned that if Khan continues to stabilize and devise strategies for reforms, which he is set to roll out in the coming months, he may win the next election. If that happens, it will end dynastic elite politics, as staying in the political wilderness could cause splits, defections and fragmentation. 

Interestingly, opposition parties have named the movement ‘democratic’ to replace what they call a ‘fake’ elected government with a ‘true’ elected government, but the means they are using hardly conform to democratic norms and conventions. 

However, we have seen in the history of Pakistan that opposition parties have launched agitations to cripple governments in the hope of new elections that might place them in power-- but have instead resulted in winding up democratic dispensations. The powerful military watching from the sidelines, grew apprehensive of the power games destabilizing the country and economy, and stepped in, taking power and staying in that position each time for no less than a decade. 

We are not sure yet if things will get to that point in Pakistan now, or if the opposition parties want to take the movement to a point where we see a complete political deadlock and breakdown of government. 

Apparently, all the stakeholders in Pakistan— the political parties, the civil society and tmilitary— would like to see democracy take deeper roots and all players staying within constitutional limits. 

Unfortunately, the politics of Pakistan never follows spoken words and lines, and no leader or party has ever felt embarrassed about the apparent contradictions between their ‘principled’ positions and the actions on the ground. The very parties that want to send an elected government packing home have insisted in the past that the governments must compete their tenure. 

The real challenge the PDM faces is that Khan is still popular among the masses and has the backing of the military. It has failed to stir up any popular uprising, except holding successful rallies in a few urban centers. 

Resigning from the assemblies is an option, but why would the PPP do so, losing its government in Sindh. Things may not be easy for the government of Khan either, as instability and confrontation may continue to divert his attention away from reforms and rebuilding a ‘new’ Pakistan. Failure then would work well into the strategy of the opposition for the next elections.   

*Rasul Bakhsh Rais is Professor of Political Science in the Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, LUMS, Lahore. His latest book is “Islam, Ethnicity and Power Politics: Constructing Pakistan’s National Identity” (Oxford University Press, 2017).
Twitter: @RasulRais