Short days, long nights in the winter of Pakistan’s political storm
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Through the fog of cold winter nights, former prime minister Nawaz Sharif’s daughter Maryam is on the streets of Lahore, urging people to come participate in anti government rallies, urging them to rise up against the status quo.
Bilawal Bhutto, son of assassinated prime minister Benazir Bhutto is also trudging through the political battlefield and rallying for democracy, traversing the country north to south.
Maryam and Bilawal are on the frontlines of the opposition’s alliance, Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), aiming to oust prime minister Imran Khan, demanding the military establishment withdraw the “crutches” of its support propping up the current government.
While their fathers are out in the cold facing numerous corruption cases and barred from mainstream politics, the younger generation of the country’s two political dynasties-- the Bhuttos and Sharifs-- plunge through winter campaigns and the pandemic, hoping to shape their own spring.
For with spring come the Senate elections, likely to give victory to PM Imran Khan’s party, giving it currently-curtailed powers of legislation. For the PDM struggling for what it calls a level playing field, it is vital to unite and stop the possible victory of Khan in the Senate. Otherwise their politics remains doomed until the next elections scheduled for 2023.
Meanwhile, Khan insists that both Bhutto’s PPP and Sharif’s PML-N are ‘looters and plunderers’, and are staging political dramas to protect ex-President Zardari’s and ex-PM Nawaz’s corruption.
While Sharif’s family flourished and was politically nurtured during the military rule of Gen. Zia ul Haq, he has had frequent falling outs with the establishment. The recent friction and hostility started when Sharif put military general ex-President Pervez Musharraf on trial for treason for suspending the Constitution. He was removed from power by the court in a corruption case soon after and lost the next election to Khan.
Now, Sharif has accused army chief Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa and the ISI chief of rigging those polls, the 2018 elections, and orchestrating his removal in 2017. The allegations have been vehemently denied.
Many speculate whether it is a political reincarnation or a tactical change, and whether it’s about political vengeance because the Sharifs feel betrayed by former allies, or whether the political dynasty grew too strong and presented a threat to the powerful establishment, or whether, as PM Khan insists, it’s simply self-preservation.
For the PDM struggling for what it calls a level playing field, it is vital to unite and stop the possible victory of Khan in the Senate. Otherwise, their politics remains doomed until the next elections scheduled for 2023.
Owais Tohid
Nawaz Sharif himself is not likely to return to Pakistan to face the cases against him, given he has already been barred by the courts from contesting elections again. His younger brother Shehbaz, who was toeing the narrative of reconciliation, is now behind bars.
Maryam is the heiress of the Sharif’s political dynasty. A charismatic leader and a crowd puller among Sharifs followers, she is known for her hardline views against the establishment and likely to continue bolstering the narrative of resistance.
But the fact remains, the Sharifs turning against the establishment is worrisome. The party is still a powerful political force in Punjab, Pakistan’s biggest province, which continues to remains the primary recruitment grounds for the country’s military.
The opposition alliance has held a series of mass demonstrations since October 16, but all eyes are set on the movement’s crucial next phase of protest in Punjab. Party leaders have pushed to gather massive crowds for the public meeting in Lahore on Sunday, and next for the proposed march towards Islamabad via the centuries’ old Grand Trunk Road running through Punjab.
“A direct attack against the military leadership will not be successful in creating a rift between the army chief and the Prime Minister,” said Shuja Nawaz, Distinguished Fellow at the Atlantic Council.
Nawaz has authored The Battle for Pakistan: The Bitter US Friendship and a Tough Neighbourhood, and Crossed Swords: Pakistan, It’s Army, and the Wars Within.
“The military has worked out a modus vivendi with the Prime Minister and is not likely to veer off in favour of the opposition,” he added.
With the announcement of pending resignations of parliamentarians, handed over to their leadership to wield, the opposition has raised political temperatures, creating uncertainty. If the opposition sustains mass protests and resigns from assemblies, Khan’s government, already burdened with economic pressures and Covid-19 challenges, might find itself in the stranglehold of political turmoil.
But the opposition’s roadmap to dismantle the government seems hazy. It is not yet clear when and whether the resignations will be formally submitted. The Bhutto’s Pakistan Peoples’ Party (PPP) stands to lose its provincial government of Sindh.
Then there is shrewd veteran religio-political leader Maulana Fazl-ur-Rahman to consider. Part of the opposition’s PDM alliance, he also leads the party which runs a chain of thousands of madrasahs across the country. Maulana has partnered in the coalitions of regimes of both the Bhuttos and Sharifs.
If Maryam and Bilawal are the face of the opposition alliance, then Maulana is the rear-guard. His inclusion ensures that right-wing religious forces cannot be effectively mobilized against protesting parties as has been done in the past-- plus he commands significant street power.
With all sides taking hardline positions, Pakistan’s politics is heading towards a blind alley. I remember smuggling questions to Nawaz Sharif through his lawyer when he was imprisoned in Karachi by military ruler Gen. Musharraf after his 1999 coup.
He wrote back, “The days are short, the nights are long.”
Twenty-one years have gone by, it seems the nights are still long, not just for the Sharifs, but for the country’s powerful establishment as well.
– Owais Tohid is a leading Pakistani journalist/writer. His email address is [email protected].
He tweets @OwaisTohid.
