Will the opposition walk the talk?
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After months of preparation, a large number of opposition factions finally convened a multi-party conference on Sunday, September 20, and expressed their resolve to oust the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government. This was not the first time these parties went into a huddle or pushed for a confrontational political strategy. They have been doing it since the beginning of the PTI tenure, a moment that signified a unique instance when the country witnessed the rise of a new or third political force.
The PTI’s rise to power also troubled the two main opposition factions — the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) — since they feared an end to their dynastic politics. These parties have dominated the electoral politics of Pakistan for decades. While in power, neither of them gave the other enough legitimacy or democratic political space. Rather, they broke all the records of confrontational politics by maligning, jailing and financially and politically bruising each other. They have significant experience of bringing down their rivals by uniting disparate political groups, mobilizing their clamorous constituencies, and bringing them on to the streets.
There is too much for the dynastic opposition parties to lose if Prime Minister Imran Khan continues to stay in power. The Senate elections are due to take place in March next year, and the PTI and its allies are expected to gain control of the upper house of parliament. Members of provincial assemblies constitute the electoral college and vote for senators for a six-year term on proportional basis. Majorities in both houses of parliament will greatly strengthen Khan and his administration. The old guards in the PPP and PML-N have reached the twilight of their lives, suffering illnesses and aging problems. They would certainly like to use their political capital, experience and networks to get the new generation of family leaders into power.
The PML-N rank and file is already in disarray and despair as their top leader lives in London for “health” reasons. By all indications, he is unwilling to obey a recent court order that expects him to return to Pakistan and face corruption cases against him. His virtual participation in meetings and conferences cannot be a substitute to real politics on the ground, especially at a time when his party seems to be struggling for survival. What has brought the two formerly popular but rivalling political groups and their leaders on a single platform is an existential dread of political decline. Time is a crucial variable here: The more Khan succeeds the more these factions stand to lose, leaving their young and aspiring successors to wade through the murky waters of Pakistani politics. It is time to act and save the dynastic politics, or lose more ground to the “third force,” which apparently has the backing of the “establishment.”
By making this speech, Nawaz Sharif has once again trotted out his narrative about ‘civilian supremacy,’ thus raising questions about Prime Minister Imran Khan’s independent political standing and fairness of the last elections. It is not a new theme, but its timing and Sharif’s decision to break his long silence are not without significance
Rasul Bakhsh Rais
The political message, the tone and the “plan of action” sharply point toward Nawaz Sharif’s objective. While Asif Ali Zardari and other politicians from his party tried to deliver a tough message, observers in Pakistan were more interested in what Sharif was going to say. This was because the PML-N leader had kept a meaningful silence on political developments after going to London for medical treatment in last November. Even his fiery daughter and heir-apparent, Maryam Nawaz, remained off the country’s political radar, even though she has been residing in Pakistan. There were rumors of a deal, requiring the two PML-N leaders to stop attacking the establishment in return for “fair” elections next time and perhaps some relief from harsh accountability.
After the recent conference, it is clear that either there was no deal or it fell through. My impression is there was no such arrangement. Sharif did not mince his words while talking about a “parallel government” and “state above the state.” He also indicated that his struggle was not against Prime Minister Imran Khan but those who “brought him into power.” Any observer of Pakistani politics can tell that he and certain PPP leaders were making oblique references to the security establishment. By making this speech, Sharif once again trotted out his narrative about “civilian supremacy,” thus raising question about Khan’s independent political standing and fairness of the last elections. It is not a new theme, but its timing and Sharif’s decision to break his long silence are not without significance.
The opposition’s three-tier action plan is scheduled to begin next month with small gatherings that it intends to turn into big political rallies. Finally, these public meetings will be transformed into a “long march” next year in January. However, the opposition parties seem to be promising too much to achieve in the face of a more popular Khan whose party is in power and enjoys the backing of the establishment. Most opposition leaders continue to face problems of character, corruption and credibility and would face more virulent attack from PTI supporters as political confrontation builds.
If the opposition carries out threats in its “action plan” and gathers enough public support, Pakistan will face more instability and political chaos.
*Rasul Bakhsh Rais is Professor of Political Science in the Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, LUMS, Lahore. His latest book is “Islam, Ethnicity and Power Politics: Constructing Pakistan’s National Identity” (Oxford University Press, 2017).
Twitter: @RasulRais
