Intra-Afghan dialogue and pitfalls from within
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The world's eyes are on intra-Afghan talks that are expected to begin in the coming days. The talks between the Taliban and Afghan government were scheduled to start soon after the signing of the historic US-Taliban peace-deal in February, but have been delayed given the chaotic nature of Afghanistan's political scene.
There are various obstacles to the intra-Afghan dialogue especially from within the government and its new allies that include President Ashraf Ghani's former archrival and competitor for presidency, Abdullah Abdullah, who currently leads the High Council for National Reconciliation.
When Ghani formed the advisory council that will oversee the Afghan government's 21-member team holding talks with the Taliban, the decision was slammed by Abdullah. While he became its chairman, the council's membership was not even consulted with him.
Sohail Shaheen, former spokesman of the Taliban, told me that when the group agreed to the talks, it was on condition that all Afghans would be represented, "all Afghan sides should have representation in the team and the council as well." As all council members were chosen by Ghani, that may not be the case.
Hamid Karzai’s name was initially mentioned by Ghani too, but the former president evaded council membership by saying that he would participate in peace talks as a citizen, not a part of any "government formation." He has since met with Abdullah several times. As there seems to be more trust between the two than between Ghani and Karzai, it is not impossible that an interim government would emerge from intra-Afghan talks and that it would be one that is united against Ghani.
This reminds me the words of Gulbuddin Hekmetyar, a mujahideen commander who fought the Soviets, "Afghanistan has been destroyed by foreign meddling." Foreign presence has brought no stability but war, bombing, killing, drug addiction and poverty.
Naila Mahsud
Given the track-record of Afghan leaders and their efforts to remain on the presidential chair, Ghani wouldn’t want to quit before the end of his second five-year term that only started a few months ago. But a successful intra-Afghan dialogue might force him out.
Paindabad Hikmat, a Kabul-based analyst told me that almost all countries in the region want the talks to succeed, so Ghani’s resistance will only minimally affect the peace process. While I agree, underestimating Ghani may prove a mistake. One regional power may not want the talks to be successful and that is India, which feels it may lose its influence in Afghanistan if the Taliban are back in power.
Another issue is prisoner exchange which so is not solely a Taliban-Kabul, although it seems as such. The prisoner release was a precondition to starting intra-Afghan talks. After much reluctance to free a few hundred remaining Taliban inmates, Kabul resumed the process, but three of the prisoners can become a bone of contention. They were jailed for killing American soldiers in a so-called insider attack. The US, desperate to keep the fragile peace process together, has not publicly objected to their release, but France and Australia have done so. The three are also responsible for killing French and Australian nationals. The Taliban responded by saying that "Afghanistan’s international backers" should not interfere.
This reminds me the words of Gulbuddin Hekmetyar, a mujahideen commander who fought the Soviets, "Afghanistan has been destroyed by foreign meddling." Foreign presence has brought no stability but war, bombing, killing, drug addiction and poverty.
As the talks are to begin in the next few days, they will be crucial for the future of Afghanistan. The meddling Hekmetyar referred to can only stop if all parties put Afghanistan first and their personal agendas behind.
- Naila Mahsud is a Pakistani political and International relations researcher, with a focus on regional politics and security issues. Twitter: @MahsudNaila
