Can Jalalabad jailbreak impede Afghan peace process?
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A recent mass jailbreak in Afghanistan's eastern Nangarhar province raises significant questions as intra-Afghan negotiations are about to begin. Can it impede the peace process? Who would benefit from it?
While the Daesh almost immediately claimed responsibility for the attack that killed dozens of people and freed hundreds of militants, the Afghan government said such a massive assault couldn't have been carried out without a power base in the region, which Daesh don't have. Afghan Interior Minister Massoud Andrabi said there was "solid intelligence" that the attack was carried out with the help of a local Taliban commander.
According to reports, a car full of explosives blew up at the prison's gate and at the same time another explosion took place inside the building. The attackers would not have been able to smuggle weapons into the jail without some sort of security loophole. But why would the Taliban, as the government claims, be behind it?
What would be the purpose of the jailbreak if no high-profile Taliban inmates were there? There were many Daesh, however, whom the Taliban have fought in Nangarhar. It is highly unlikely that they would like to set them free.
Abdul Rauf Shpoon, a legislator from Nangarhar province, said that once the attackers were inside the prison, they started asking inmates about Taliban prisoners and then proceeded to shoot them. If the attack was carried out by the Taliban, as the Afghan government suggests, why would they kill their own people?
If it is an inside job, which it appears to be, it is the Afghan government's duty to set its house in order and find out who is trying to bring life again to the Daesh in Afghanistan and jeopardize the peace deal with the Taliban.
Naila Mahsud
Sohail Shaheen, a spokesman for the Taliban told me the attack seems to have been an "inside job" in collusion with senior officials of the Kabul administration. This speaks volumes of the trust deficit between the two major parties of the upcoming intra-Afghan dialogue that are expected to pave the way for peace in the war-torn country. Shaheen said that some members of the Kabul government do not want the peace process to take place.
What makes the situation and current blame game even more complex, is that at least three out of eleven men who attacked the Jalalabad jail are believed to have been of Indian origin. Their leader was reportedly Kalluketiya Purayil Ijas, a resident of the Indian state of Kerala.
A question needs to be asked if a peaceful Afghanistan is actually what India wants. It does not seem so. The upcoming intra-Afghan peace talks have no confidence vote from New Delhi, which has long opposed the idea of the Taliban sharing power with the Kabul administration as it fears that it would lose its significance in Afghanistan. The loss, it fears, would be to the advantage of Pakistan.
But Pakistan indeed wants peace in Afghanistan. Increased Daesh presence would be in direct contradiction to Islamabad's efforts to make the intra-Afghan process commence as soon as possible. The Pakistani government does not want its border with Afghanistan to remain unstable since it already faces a lot of tension along the frontier with India. Pakistan's trust-building efforts have been numerous lately, despite many claims from Kabul that Islamabad is siding with the Taliban.
The jailbreak, if it leads to the re-emergence of Daesh, will indeed be a real challenge to peace in Afghanistan, as more than 300 Daesh members will now find their way to join the fight after the incident.
If it is an inside job, which it appears to be, it is the Afghan government's duty to set its house in order and find out who is trying to bring life again to the Daesh in Afghanistan and jeopardize the peace deal with the Taliban.
– Naila Mahsud is a Pakistani political and International relations researcher, with a focus on regional politics and security issues. Twitter: @MahsudNaila
